#earnings #jadelizard FIVE
Sold Sept. 20, 105/120/121 for 2.20
Daily Archives: Wednesday, August 28, 2019
Volatility
Could be coming in a bit. Maybe it will bleed some more option premium out before the 3 day weekend. Of course you have to allow for 3 days of tweets so you never know. The front end of the curve (http://vixcentral.com/) is surprisingly back in contango although the rest of the curve is still a mess. Watching closely, obviously 🙂
Shopify call spread
$SHOP looking like it’s peaked at least in the short term after a nice runup. Printing a red candle today. Sold 9/20 420/430 bear call spread @ 2.36 with the stock around 392.
#earnings #closing TIF ADSK bought…
bought ADSK, Sept. 20, 125/175 strangle for 1.00, sold yesterday for 2.44
bought TIF, Sept. 20, 75/84/85 #jadelizard .95, sold yesterday for 1.57.
SPLK still refusing to cooperate from earnings the other day grrr
As always, thanks to Jeff for the data that guides the trade decisions.
SPX 5-dte
#SPX1dte. Sold $SPX 2760/2785-2950/2975 condors for 3.00, IV: 16.78%, SPX 2884
UVXY call spread
Sold 10/18 45/55 bear call spreads @ 1.27
ANF long strangle
#earnings. Bought to open $ANF Aug 30th 16.5/17 long strangles for 2.50.
ANF earnings analysis
#Earnings $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 29, 2019 BO -26.46% Biggest DOWN
March 6, 2019 BO +20.37%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO +8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO +13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Aug. 30, 2016 BO -20.30%
Avg (+ or -) 16.96%
Bias 2.56%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.99 to 19.21
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 13.79 to 19.41
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.5%): 12.21 to 20.99
Based on UP max only (+23.9%): 20.57
Open to requests for other symbols.
FIVE earnings analysis
#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight (added late, so I missed it on the calendar). Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 5, 2019 AC -1.00%
March 27, 2019 AC +8.15%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%
Avg (+ or -) 6.45%
Bias 5.00%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 115.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 105.84 to 124.16
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 107.58 to 122.42
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 89.86 to 140.14
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 111.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 4-dte closed early
#SPX1dte. BTC $SPX Aug 30th 2745/2765-2935/2955 condors for .85. Sold Monday for 3.00.
Today’s 2780/2800-2920/2940 condors look good to expire, sold yesterday for 1.00.
TIF closing
#Earnings. Closed first batch for 1.00. $TIF Aug30/Sep06 85 #DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for .48.
Options Bistro 