#Earnings – The Modified #JadeLizard (unbalanced skewed iron condor?) worked out pretty good. A little down move but held support.
Bought to Close ULTA MAY 31 2019 280/305/340/345 @ .20 (sold for 5.12)
Tag Archives: JadeLizard
#optionsexpiration and actually these are…
#optionsexpiration and actually these are for next week, I rolled everything today.
Sorry I have not had time to post for anyone that was following trades. I will do a better job of at least a weekly update. That is how I trade. 95% of my trades are on Thurs. so a weekly update should keep things up to date.
Lots of trading last few weeks but equity curve flat. Need the trade tariff BS to end. Not good for business 😦
Most of my trades have been converted to #fuzzy or #lizardpies for recovery.
#hedge
/ES 62 DTE 2610/2605 back ratio has made a few $. It’s real purpose is to guard against a 2/6/18 or 8/24/15 event. Hope I don’t need it but would get a lot of cash then. However like an insurance policy I expect to lose on this.
#pietrades
LABU 45 cc at 44.25 cb and 40 cc at 37.13 and another batch of 40 cc at 38.42
TNA 60 cc at 59.69
TQQQ 63 cc at 62.15
AMAT 22 DTE 42 CC at 41.04. Assigned off a 43 put but had some credits as a cushion
#fuzzy
EOG 92.5/90 rolled down to 87.5/87.5 for a little debit. Cost basis 15.44 but because I had made some on the longs it put some cash back in the account.
GILD 65/65 rolled next week for 0.29 credit. Cost basis 5.91. Should not be too much longer for a free trade.
LNG 67.5/67.5 rolled for 0.34 credit. Cost basis 9.99 down from 15.57 at onset only 4 weeks ago.
XBI 80/80/85 rolled for 0.70 and cb 5.57
XBI 80/85 cb 12.50. This is a new batch we are doing live as an experiment. Avg. about 4% cost reduction per week. With monthlies it is larger about 6-8% but the theta decay is slower. 6% per month is 96% per year.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 for cb of 3.78. Freebie soon I hope 🙂 but this is also an experiment that will be taken all the way to expiration in 2021.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 at 6.45. Same as above but this is tracking the compounded addition of contracts as the rolls spit off cash.
#lizardpies
IBB 103.5 rolled down to 102/102/102.5 for total credit of 0.84. This has been recovered all the way from 107/109 strikes. Shows the flexibility of the #jadelizard as a tactic for adjustments.
IWM rolled down from 150 to 149/149/149.5. Reduced debit from 2.11 to 1.63 as I have recovered this from 155/157 strikes. I gave back a little credit to reduce margin.
SQ 63.5/63.5/64 rolled for total credit of 2.19. Looks like it found a bottom.
XBI 81.5 rolled down to 81/81/81.5 for total credit of 2.35.
LNG 64/64/64.5 rolled down from 66 for 1.68 total credit.
Once I can close a few of these, hopefully next week, will start some 21 DTE #lizardpies and create ladders. Some of them will be skewed to downside to just have steady income with every expiration and let them expire each week. Add new ones every Monday or Thurs.
Stay nimble, I suspect there is more volatility ahead but take advantage of the increased premiums 🙂
Here is an example of a 22 DTE #lizardpies I am looking at.
7 points of downside protection. No risk to upside. Income over 3 weeks, can probably close early for 50% or more profit.
ULTA Earnings
Modified #JadeLizard (unbalanced skewed iron condor?) with some downside protection and no upside risk. Breakeven down near the 200ma and near the average move of the stock on earnings.
Sold 1 ULTA MAY 31 2019 280/305/340/345 @ 5.12
SPLK Earnings
#JadeLizard #Earnings – Almost identical to ADSK. This thing can go anywhere. If it tanks I’ll get the stock around the 50ma. A nickel of upside risk…
Sold SPLK MAY 24 2019 121/132/135 Jade Lizard @ 2.95
ADSK Earnings
#JadeLizard #Earnings – Copy and paste from last earnings with slightly different strikes. Playing for a down move to no more than the 200ma.
#JadeLizard – This thing can go anywhere. If it tanks I’ll get the stock around the 50ma. No upside risk…
Sold ADSK MAY 24 2019 152.5/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.60
Random stuff that may be useful.
So my 5 week full time trading experiment has been over for about 4 weeks now. Not trying to brag, but had my second best trading month ever even in a very choppy market. Over 9% returns for the month on my total portfolio and now up 38% for the total portfolio for the year as of this last weekend. Several losing trades in there as well.
So ran a few experiments and noticed a few things about the market in live time.
1. While tastytrade has found that the best time to sell options is 45 DTE, it takes a long time for the decay to occur, especially if the ticker moves. I found that there is a huge theta crush from 21 DTE to 14 or 7 DTE for OTM options. You will be closer to the money than 45 DTE, but the theta decay is huge. I may have posted this already and if so sorry for the repeat, but I was in EXPE and several other trades. Had opened both 45 DTE and 21 DTE. It took 3-5 weeks for the 45 DTE options to crush 50% but only 10 days for the 21 DTE to do the same. Recycle capital faster, make more $.
2. #spycraft version 5.1 or so idea. The weekly income is awesome, but then the 5 STD moves crush all your profits and then some. I have been setting up hedges using /ES and SPX and keeping them on almost all the time now. On the big moves down, you can roll for cash and reset the hedge to new levels. You can set up a longer term hedge 90 DTE or so to cover you max loss basically scratching the trade. It will cost more but will prevent the losses. I have not figured out the ideal ratios yet but stay tuned. Plan is to sell 21 day IC or credit spreads, use the cash to buy a few hedges, then roll weekly and keep cash coming in to reduce the hedge cost basis to zero. Other option is convert the spreads to ratios or butterflies. The butterfly seems to limit the losses faster and then if whipsaw no additional losses.
3. Keeping hedges on allows you to be a much more aggressive trader. If the SPX goes to zero, you hedges will be worth much more than your portfolio was. Because of the volatility expansion you can also buy cheaper options than you thought. I have been planning for a 10% drop as my starting point. Then figure out which option would be worth 10k at a 10% drop. Then you can figure out how many contracts to cover your portfolio. Best to do when the VIX is 12. The black swam events seem to be occurring on average 2 times a year since 2015 but are only supposed to happen once every 5 years. I will always have a hedge and will pay for it by selling options or rolling profits from the hedges.
4. #jadelizard and #lizardpies are hugely adaptable. You can often move 3-5 strikes and still take in a credit. You can also skew it to up or downside and really increase returns. If runs through the upper strikes just let it all expire, take the cash, and reset the next week. If it moves down, reset the straddle ATM.
5. #pietrades are still the cash machine but can convert to jade lizards or LEAPs if it really implodes on you.
6. Staying out of earnings trades has been helpful to my equity curve.
7. Staring at 1 and 5 minute charts is mind numbing. Congratulations to those of you that can do it and trade directionally. I can’t and have a lot more fun things to do. I will stay mostly non directional with a slight directional bias and enjoy life and my free time. Most of my trading is on my free time so the less I have to spend trading is more time to do other things. I personally will not take any trade on anything shorter than a 15 or 30 minute chart but my real triggers are now hourly or 4 hour for the weekly trades.
8. Spreads can save your bacon in really volatile markets.
9. Keep enough cash on the sidelines for adjustments and opportunities.
10. There is always another trade or opportunity. If you feel pressured to make a trade, it is probably a bad idea. The less emotional you can be also the better the adjustments/recovery you can make. Think before hitting the confirm and send button and have a plan and stick to the plan if the trade goes against you. Be mechanical in your trading and adjusting. It may seem boring to some but the reason I trade is to make money. I want adrenaline I will go kiteboard or ski and hopefully not break my face again.
11. Having a group to trade with is like extra eyes on the market. Everyone sees different opportunities. Thanks for sharing 🙂
12. Being a specialist pays off. I am a family practitioner but specialists make more in the medical field. Also true in the market. Have a handful of tickers you know, watch and trade. They all have their own personalities and once you know them it is easier to trade them. I think once you have above 10-12 names you are probably trying to do too much. Trading the same tickers over and over has improved my consistency and results. Sure, play the occasional lottery ticket but to pay the bills stick with what you know. And also make sure your tickers are diversified.
Cheers, Chris 🙂
#optionsexpiration #pietrades EOG batch 2…
#pietrades
EOG batch 2 assigned at 89 at a cost basis of 92.63. This is a small account and I plan to take it to spreads to juice returns so just wanted to take the loss so I can redeploy capital on Monday.
EOG batch 1 I rolled up to the 97 cc for next week at 6.75 and after selling the 97 for 1.35 cost basis 96.14. I never figured out why it spiked so much yesterday?
FAS 57 cc assigned at cb of 54.20.
ERX 23 cc rolled 2 weeks for 0.5 credit. Cb 21.81
LNG 4/12 67 put sold for 0.54 yesterday.
#lizardpies
EXPE rolled on 4/3 to 37 DTE 113/130/131 for additional credit. Total credit now 3.84 per contract
EXAS STO the 89 put for 4/12 for 1.01, then converted to #jadelizard yesterday 89/89/90 for another 0.6 credit.
SMH closed 4/3 for 0.45 credit per contract
JPM closed 4/4 for 1.08 credit per contract
SQ rolled out to 4/12 for 1.26 credit at 76/76/76.5 strikes. cb 74.74 if assigned.
TNA 60 rolled to 4/12 62.5/62.5/63 for 1.1 credit.
#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 cb at 6.39
GILD 65/65 rolled out 37 DTE yesterday for 1.07 credit. Cb now 7.34
1 more week of surgical recovery then back to work but trading full time the last few weeks has been more than I would make at work so good to know for retirement. However, I am really looking forward to some solid food!
Expiration but mostly rolls, closing and managing.
#pietrades
EOG 90.5 cc for 4/12 cost basis 90.74. Depending on where it is trading will let assign at slight loss or roll.
EOG 89 cc 4/5 cost basis 92.63. Will roll this one.
ERX 23 cc for 4/5 cost basis 22.31. Will let assign or roll
TQQQ 54.5 cc for 3 weeks cost basis 56.39. Will roll
TQQQ 55 cc for today at 53.79 cost basis. Will assign today.
TQQQ 53.5 cc for 3 weeks cb 56.75. Will roll
FAS 57 cc for 4/5 cost basis 54.20. Will let assign.
#lizardpies
XBI 4/5 86/86/86.5 closed today for 0.52 profit per contract. Could only make .69 above 86 so decent profit for 2 day trade. I had skewed this one to the downside but it moved up today.
EXPE 4/26 115/131/132 for 2.31 credit. Looking good now, hope to close for 50% or better profit in 2 weeks. Right now at 25%.
SMH 4/26 100.5/110/111 for 1.38 credit. Same as above.
SQ 4/5 75.5/75.5/74.03 for 1.75 credit. Same but will most likely roll it in pieces.
JPM STO today the 4/5 101/101/102 for 1.81 credit. Looks like it found a bottom.
TNA 4/5 60/61/61.5 rolled this morning from last week. Credit now 3.06.
#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 for 2 weeks at 8.41 cost basis.
GILD 65/65 for 3 weeks 6.39 cb
XBI 80/80/91.5 cb 11.74. 2 more weeks on the short calls.
Percentage return wise, the #jadelizard trades seem to work the best and also easier to roll because of the initial higher credit. Live study ongoing and will keep you posted. I am also skewing them depending on which way I think it is moving and that seems to help the winning percentage. Using the #markettide to time entries.
Have a good weekend!
2 more weeks in the jaw wires then back to work for me 🙂 although I am enjoying the extra trading.
The pull back helped a…
The pull back helped a few positions so rolling.
#lizardpies
SQ this week 76/76/76.5 rolled the puts to next week 4/5 to the 75.5 put for 0.08 credit. I will let the call side expire worthless then re-establish the #jadelizard on Monday. Cb now 74.14 on put side, no risk to upside.
STO the 4/5 XBI 86/86/86.5 jade lizard for 1.19 credit. Cost basis 84.81 on downside and no risk to upside. Skewed it slightly to downside in case market keeps going down. Anywhere above 86.5 make 0.69 per contract. Below will roll the puts.
#pietrades
EOG batch 1 rolled the 90.5 cc out 2 weeks to 4/11 for 1.05 credit. Cost basis down to 90.74. 1 more roll should be profitable.
Not having a lot of success with directional trades, but by having time to watch the market (not all day) I have been able to time my rolls better and make more income. Not sure I will ever be a full on directional trader. Even watching the 1 minute /ES chart, just missed the pivot.
BURL earnings analysis
#Earnings — $BURL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
I’m posting this one because it has a remarkably bullish response to earnings. Also, in a very long weekly squeeze. Will probably do a bullish butterfly, or maybe try my first #JadeLizard.
Nov. 28, 2018 BO +12.78%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.86%
May 31, 2018 BO +7.11%
March 8, 2018 BO +5.84%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -1.51%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +1.36%
May 25, 2017 BO +4.90%
March 2, 2017 BO +6.66%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +15.98% Biggest UP
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +3.12%
May 26, 2016 BO +7.44%
March 3, 2016 BO -2.78% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.86%
Bias 5.00%, very strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.81 to 181.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 160.04 to 179.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.0%): 142.83 to 197.17
Based on Max DOWN only (-2.8%): 165.27
Open to requests for other symbols.
ADSK Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Bought to Close ADSK MAR 1 2019 150.0/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ .17 (sold for 3.25)
ADSK Earnings
#JadeLizard – This thing can go anywhere. If it tanks I’ll get the stock around the 50ma. No upside risk…
Sold ADSK MAR 1 2019 150.0/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.25
#earnings #jadelizard M Sold March…
Sold March 15, 22(put)/25/25.50 for .73, stock at 24.60, recent low of 23.95. I have 100 assigned shares from a while ago. Thanks for the data Jeff.
NTES
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Taking off the call side but still holding the 217.50 put for now….
Bought to Close NTES FEB 22 2019 232.5/237.5 Bear Call Spread @ .03
NTES Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Haven’t had a chance to mess with much earnings this quarter other than NVDA last week. I’ll take a shot at NTES today with a slightly bearish play since the stock is up today and at resistance. Using a Jade Lizard (no upside risk). This position would need the stock to trade lower on the announcement but no lower than slightly more than the expected move (212.30 b/e). Worse case scenario it turns into a covered call position with nice weekly premium.
Sold NTES FEB 22 2019 217.5/232.5/237.5 Jade lizard @ 5.20
#rolling, adjustments, and new trades…
#rolling, adjustments, and new trades
#fuzzy
MU rolled the 35/35 out 16 DTE for 0.5 credit. Cb now 14.30
WDC 40/40 rolled out 9 DTE for 0.33 credit. Cb now 17.71
I was going to close these at a loss but figure if I can get at least 0.25 per roll will keep rolling to generate cash and lower cost basis. 10 contracts each so decent income.
#pietrades
SQ STO the 9 DTE Feb 8-9 68 put for 1.53. Decided not to jade lizard until after FOMC and see what the market does. If we gap up I will sell the CCS once it has a top or range.
FOMC must have just released up 10 more on /ES. I may #jadelizard SQ into the close if it slows down to the upside.
After 4-5 months of crap trading, finally making some income/cash and money again but I still have a long way to go to recover the SVXY fiasco.
Since we are on experiment…
Since we are on experiment discussion below again, here is one I have been paper trading. A twist on #pietrades. If we need a new term we could call them #lizardpies.
So obviously with the market rout all my #pietrades went ITM and to prevent a meltdown in margin I converted them all to #fuzzy. Which is great, has controlled the volatility and still have 111 weeks to manage them. But as @fuzzballl points out below, they are expensive. Cheaper than stock but my EXPE puts are now trading at 22.40 and 19.50. Not chump change.
The #pietrade idea is sound for income generation and even some capital gains long term as long as you sell the call ATM or OTM once assigned the stock. You also are typically only selling 1 side and as Karen the supertrader (now scam artist) figured out, selling the other side is what really improves long term returns and consistency. She may have been using some creative accounting but the idea is sound and has been proven by tasty trade.
So here is the tweak I have been playing with. When you set up the trade, start it as a #jadelizard but set it up ATM. For example with XBI currently at 78.02 I would sell the 10 DTE 78 puts naked (cash secure) and then sell the 78/79 call credit spread. Total credit 2.55. No upside risk, downside break even is 75.55 which is lower than where I probably would have just sold the put.
3 possible outcomes
a: below 78 assigned shares on the put at 78 but cost basis 75.55. Can sell a next week call or call credit spread if you think rebound, then uncapped upside
b: Between the strikes max profit and you may be assigned on the call but can exercise your long call if needed.
c: above 79 everything cancels out and you keep the credit minus $1.
Here’s a graph on a 10 lot.
I have been trading it on paper and it would have had better loss control on the #pietrades than straight put sales the last 2 months.
Thoughts, holes in the strategy, other ideas to tweak it or make it better? If you wanted to be more conservative could sell strangles OTM instead or straddles ATM on the short sides but then less credit. Since my premise is income, I am trying to bring in as much credit as possible on the front end.
BABA earnings analysis
#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO 3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO 2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO 0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO 3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO 5.08% Biggest UP
May 5, 2016 BO 3.96%
Jan. 28, 2016 BO -3.76%
Oct. 27, 2015 BO 4.04%
Avg + or – 3.25%
Bias 0.57%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 143.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 134.69 to 151.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 138.36 to 147.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.9%): 134.56 to 151.44
Expected move is same as Maximum move, which is rare.
Open for requests on other symbols.
STMP earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Taking the upside risk off the lizard and still waiting on the put side. Covered calls on the put side at a 170 basis wouldn’t be the end of the world so watching it for now.
Bought to Close STMP NOV 2 2018 215.0/220.0 Bear Call Spread @ .10
Originally:
Sold 1 STMP NOV 2 2018 175.0/215.0/220.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.10
STMP earnings
#Earnings – Taking a shot with another #JadeLizard. No upside risk. Selling just outside the expected move on the downside and just inside the expected move on the upside. But….this thing could go anywhere. It’s had some crazy moves.
Sold 1 STMP NOV 2 2018 175.0/215.0/220.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.10
BIDU earnings
#Earnings – Selling a #JadeLizard based on Jeff’s data of average move on earnings. No upside risk and I’ll just manage the put on an implosion.
Sold 1 BIDU NOV 2 2018 167.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.55
#jadelizard DOCU tastyTrade idea sold…
#jadelizard DOCU
tastyTrade idea sold Dec. 21 35/49/50 for 1.58. Short 35 put, short 49 call, long 50 call
#jadelizard SFIX Tastytrade idea sold…
#jadelizard SFIX
Tastytrade idea sold Nov. 16, 26/32/34, (+26 put, -32 call, +34) call for 2.23.
ROKU Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Just to close the books on this…Jade Lizard with 50/51 on the call side and stock obviously blew through that. Closed those for .98 so picking up 2 cents and saving exercise fees. Originally sold for 1.35 so net gain of 37 cents.
See you next quarter!
ROKU Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Trying the Lizard again. Selling the upside pretty tight at half the expected move allowing put sales outside the expected move. No upside risk with breakeven down at 39.15 (not that that’s really safe…LOL)
Sold ROKU 40.5/50/51 Jade Lizards @ 1.35
WTW Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Staying small…just a couple. Puts at the expected move and calls just inside the expected move with no upside risk…
Sold 83/101/103 Jade Lizards @ 2.11
SHAK Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Worked nicely…I’m out.
Original trade was:
Sold 57.0 Puts and Sold 70/71 Call Spreads @ 1.19 total credit
Bought to Close SHAK AUG 3 2018 57.0 Puts @ .20
70/71 calls spreads should expire…
SHAK Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – With the IV in this thing and only one day to go I feel like I’ve gotta do something. Working both sides at the expected move (+/- 6.50) and selling a Jade Lizard. No upside risk here and breakeven down around the 100ma. One third position size just in case a repair is needed.
Sold 57.0 Puts and Sold 70/71 Call Spreads @ 1.19 total credit
RH Earnings
#Earnings – This thing just looks way overbought here. Taking a shot with a #JadeLizard with no upside risk while giving it some downside room. Thanks @Jeff for the data on this. Staying small here…
Sold RH JUN 15 2018 94.0 Puts @ 1.37
Sold RH JUN 15 2018 120.0/122.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .75
Total credit 2.12 with 2.00 of upside risk. Breakeven of 91.88 to the downside which is about 10 dollars more than the expected move.
DG Earnings
Two different positions:
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Booked the original weekly sales and threw on an additional sale hoping for a quick double dip…
Bought to Close DG JUN 1 2018 101.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for .65)
Sold DG JUN 1 2018 92.0 Calls @ .35
#JadeLizard – Original sale was 95/104/106 Jade Lizards @ 2.13.
Closed the call side for .02. Did that mainly for risk reduction when I sold the additional calls above. Still sitting on the short 95 puts with a basis of 92.89. Will probably roll them and then sell additional calls in my LEAPS position above.
May 16 SPY Put Roll
I had a lot of 273 naked puts for today’s expiration (BTW, I love using Wed expiration for assignments so I don’t have to wait for over a weekend to hedge in 401K accounts. In non-401K I will sell calls in advance of assignment but you can’t do that in 401K accts). I was able to cover my puts for 25% profit today, then I flipped them to #BigLizard trades.
SPY May 23 -272.5p/-272.5c/+273.5c for 2.03 cr. Doing a Lizard brought in 25% extra premium vs. doing an ATM put only. Break even is 270.47 on these.
It looks like I will get an assignment on $274 SPY shares. Rather than sell calls-only against that position, I will explore a reverse Jade Lizard to bring in some put revenue, similar to a covered strangle, but less risk. I’ll update this after the close.
Sue
May 15–LMT
Not a ton of activity today, I have on enough ITM naked puts that I need to see what shakes out this week before taking on anymore risk.
LMT: I’m still stalking a share assignment for dividend (2.00 div on 5/31) (you guessed it…for Daddy! The “D-word” makes his old eyes light up). Turns out I’ve made way more than the dividend by stalking the dividend, which is as it should be. I’ve done 3 rounds of ratio spreads now, all closed for 70-80%. After closing a 3×5 spread for this week, I put on a #BigLizard #JadeLizard . A Big Lizard is a Jade Lizard using the same strike short put/calls (straddle) plus the protective call. Like a Jade Lizard, if done for a credit greater than the width of the call spread there is no upside risk. By adding the call credit spread onto the naked put, additional premium is collected pushing down that lower break even. I really wish I’d done more Big Lizards this week on stuff vs. naked puts. Here’s my trade:
May 18 -320p/-320c/+322.5c for net 3.62 cr. Since 3.62 is greater than the $2.50-wide call credit spread, there is guaranteed profit to the upside, no upside risk. The break even is figured by simply subtracting net credit from the put strike: $320 – $3.62 = $316.38. I’m running all my LMT’s with 3 contracts.
Sue
NVDA Earnings
#Earnings – Not sure what this is called. Skewed iron condor maybe? I’m looking at it like a #JadeLizard with a disaster put. Selling at near the expected move on each side but with no upside risk and a disaster put just in case.
Sold NVDA MAY 11 2018 242.5 Puts and 272.5/275 Bear Call Spreads @ 2.72 (Jade Lizard)
Using some of the extra 22 cents to buy disaster puts 20 points below the sold put. If this stock misses earnings by a mile it could really implode (guessing).
Bought NVDA MAY 11 2018 222.5 Puts @ .17
Net credit of 2.55 with zero upside risk. If it implodes I’ll look to roll the puts or move it all into a #LongCalls #LEAPS type trade.
EDIT: What do I want the stock to do? As little as possible! Just like a strangle…stay between my short strikes…
NVDA Earnings
#Earnings – Haven’t done anything yet. Kinda busy moving my daughter today. This stock is completely out of control so is it a “sell the news”? Not sure but looking at big wide strangles for now or possibly another #JadeLizard with the 2.5 wide strikes available.
ROKU Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard (sort of) – Having a great earnings season so almost decided to sell very aggressive strangles in this. Common sense took over but still staying aggressive while limiting upside risk to 45 cents with a Jade Lizard style trade…(sell puts and call spreads where the call spreads are narrow enough to eliminate or minimize up side risk).
Sold ROKU MAY 11 2018 35.0 Puts and 41.0/44.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 2.55
Eliminates most of the upside risk and brings breakeven on the put side down to 32.45 which is near the expected move and below the 20 and 50 day moving averages.
What’s the plan then? Lots of possibilities here. Stock blows out to the upside could book long calls and roll short calls into a new strangle or just sell a few puts right at the open to bring in 45 cents and get out even.
If the stock blows out to the downside could sell more calls near the short puts and wait a couple days and see what happens. Could then roll or ultimately turn this into a Jan 2020 LEAPS style position.
#jadelizard #ironcondor CELG Tastytrade idea…
#jadelizard #ironcondor CELG
Tastytrade idea July 20, 70/90/90/95 for 6.96 (modified from 60) , profitable above 82.82
Another lesson in not trading…
Another lesson in not trading naked calls/strangles in individual names. ANDV most recently TSO is up 24 points in the last 3 days. Apparently buyout by marathon oil.
#jadelizard trades for individual names, strangles only in indexes………
I had a strangle briefly a few weeks ago as a recovery, good thing I unwound it. I will take lucky over good some days!!
#jadelizard #ironcondor FB A little…
A little more enticing than long term short puts on cable companies, followed Fauzia at Tastytrade , June 15, 170/175/175/195 for 7.35
Looks like the whippy market…
Looks like the whippy market will continue. Up 10 at the open, back down to 6 and now up 13.
Will convert some of my short puts to #jadelizard and strangles on the etfs tomorrow to bring additional $ and help stay in positions through the CHOP!
Who broke the market today?
#pietrades and rolling with some good premiums.
ANDV rolled 11 DTE 95 put to 25 DTE 93 put for 0.25 credit. Cost basis 90.78 if assigned.
NSC rolled 11 DTE 131 put to 25 DTE 128 put for 0.32 credit. CB 126.63 if assigned.
I will probably #jadelizard these if we get a bounce in next few days and also UTX but want better prices on a rebound.
ERX 21/26 4 DTE under water. Still some time value in the short option so will wait and roll later in the week. I will likely #fuzzy it to the Jan 19 call 20 strike, then just sell weekly options against it. With 41.5 weeks left would only need 0.19 per week to scratch the trade to zero so will probably sell OTM to give it a little room. I can roll the long option out and down for 4.15 right now and gain 41 weeks. 2-3 strikes oTM usually brings in 0.6-1 each week so this could be a good longer term trade.
Actually as I am typing this ERX going to parity, will roll it now.
New trade is a #fuzzy Jan 19 call 20 strike, rolled for 4.25 debit and the short 26 call rolled to next week 25.5 for 0.45. Total CB now 8.22 for 10 contracts. Work it down each week from here.
Trade wars should spike the price of commodities including oil so this should rebound.
#pietrade BTC the ANDV 108…
BTC the ANDV 108 call 15 DTE for 0.25. Sold for .95. Part of a strangle. Leaving the 95 put on still has .70 left.
When I roll the put will convert to #jadelizard. I violated my own rule of selling naked calls on individual names as a recovery for the dip(s). Strangles on ETF’s and indexes are ok because the entire ETF will not be bought out by another company. I had to pay up when Berkshire bought heinz a few years ago so learned my lesson on uncovered calls on a single company. Will unwind UTX and NSC calls as soon as they decay a little, hopefully over the long weekend.
#pietrades A bunch today since…
#pietrades A bunch today since this is effectively expiration day. But it is nice out, first day can wear shorts here so going outside as soon as all the trades execute, still working 1 order.
GM Rolled 38.5 CC 22 DTE to 29 DTE for 0.17 credit. CB now 38.33. Taking forever to work this one back, will just be happy to scratch it so I can use the money somewhere else. For those following, I am taking this off the #pietrade list for a while, weekly premiums are not good enough for as much as it is moving around and to prone to steel tariff tweets.
FAS today 65 CC to next week 64 CC for 1.58 credit. CB 62.07
FAS today 64 CC to next week for 1.59 credit. CB 61.11
LNG Apr. 6 to Apr. 13 55 CC down to 54 CC for 0.52 credit. CB 53.27
ANDV 95/108 15 DTE strangle looking good, probably roll Monday to new week but #jadelizard the call side.
ERX 21/26 long debit 8 DTE should expire for full profit next week. If for some reason stays below 26 will convert to #fuzzy. I can add another 9 months to the long call for $3 and can sell $2 in premium each week, kind of a no brainer. However, this is also part of a deep ITM #syntheticcoveredcall experiment so my plan is to actually roll it next week and re-establish the position. On a percentage basis looks like a 13.7% return every month with moderate risk but very little work. Potentially a 160% annualized return so this is worth trying. I think this is what Chuck Hughes does to get some of his high returns. Buy deep ITM call with almost no time value, then sell ITM call that has a decent amount of time value left. Gives 10-20% downside protection and can still make max profit. I will keep one of these running for a while and report the results as it unfolds. Cheaper way to play a CC or #fuzzy maybe.
NSC 131/143 strangle 15 DTE. It moved around so much still at break even. Hope some theta decay will make some profits this weekend. Earnings late April so will only roll the put side.
UTX 122/132 strangle 36 DTE. Had to adjust. Same problem as NSC. Will let some of the premium suck out of it then only roll the put side. Earnings late April or I may #jadelizard both so there is no risk to the upside.
Hoppy Easter as the kids say! Hope everyone has a good long weekend.
I am still showing paper losses from the SVXY implosion. My net liq. keeps going down because of all the adjusting, only 1 positive week since Feb 6 but it was a good one. However, once these all close will have a nice bump finally and the theta decay is huge now, close to 800 per day, just need a few days of not whipsawing so it makes a difference. Once everything closes in 1-3 weeks will at least be positive for March.
Cheers, Chris
#ironcondor #jadelizard FB Followed Fauzia…
Followed Fauzia at TT, sold a jade lizard with a margin reducing put. Feb. 2, 150/167.50/185/187.50 for 2.85
#ironcondor #jadelizard GILD Kind of…
#ironcondor #jadelizard GILD
Kind of following a jade lizard at TastyTrade, sold Jan. 19 73/78/79 jade lizard, added a 66 put, all for 1.03
DWDP
@vxxkelly did a recent trade on this and it reminded me it’s been on my watch list. There’s a lot of block trades on it today, and some calls being bought. So I did an unprotected #Fuzzy . I did a Mar 70/70 synthetic and sold Dec 22 71.5. I will add protection after an up move, for a better price. In a squeeze right now.
Didn’t capture my trades from yesterday, but a couple highlights:
1. Rolled the JPM Fuzzy hedge into strength to collect more on the next week
2. MAR #JadeLizard closed for 50% target
3. My SPX #FuzzyBear is troublesome. I didn’t set it with correct timing, so now I’m doing battle. I took off one short call on the synthetic turning it into a back ratio like @hcgdavis mentioned yesterday. I’m also using the AS-BB indicator for legging in and out of the hedge puts to get a few extra $$ on it.
#Fuzzies need rolls as Friday approaches: LMT, CELG, NUE. I’ve got substantial net profit on LMT so may close it all rather than roll.
12/11 Trades
Looks like it was a quiet day for a lot of people here.
1. May I please call these “Fuzzy” trades? I love them and I’m doing a lot of them (#SyntheticStock Diagonals w/ protection and hedge income—From now on known as #Fuzzies. To me, the Fuzzies have two stages, stage one is recovering the net debit of the trade; Stage 2 is recovery of the spread risk. I spent time this weekend looking at and scoring candidates. The “score” is basically the number of weeks of hedge income that it takes to accomplish Stage 1. The fewer the number of weeks, the lower the score. I’m looking for Fuzzies with a score of less than 5, less than 4 even better. I have a picture in my head of having a portfolio of 10 Fuzzies, each with $10 spread risk, bringing in 10-15K a week in income. So I’m testing these aggressively.
I have a TOS scan for finding high-return covered calls and puts, and it turns out it’s a good scan for finding Fuzzy candidates with low scores. Here’s the scan http://tos.mx/vKzR27
So back to Trade #1: CELG. I happened to catch a big bullish fund order for a Jan risk reversal, so a CELG #Fuzzy was my first trade of the day: Mar 110c/-110p/+100p, Dec 15 110 c. Net debit: 1.38 with a “Score” of approx 2.38 (2.38 weeks to cover the core debit)
2. Oh…here’s a nod to @hcgdavis for the Alpha Shark indicator. Got it. Love it. So scalped a bunch of /NQ today while taking it for a test run. Ended up +$305 on small-lot scalps. Enough to pay for the indicator 🙂
3. NTES. Now this was a franken-trade. It started as one 10-lot #butterfly. As it dropped added another 10-lot butterfly. Last week added a 3rd 10-lot butterfly. Was finally able to close it all out today for a $157 loss. Believe me, I’m happy with that!
4. #Bitties Closed! SPX x 20 lot, NDX x 10 lot. Got 50% target on all of them. The SPX bitties were 7DTE, so was happy to close them asap given the gamma risk. Net profit $1150.
5. Reset 17DTE SPX #Bitties. The Dec 27 2630/2625 for .85 cr x 20
6. NTNX I’ve been holding 703 shares, took 603 off for about $950 profit. Some day they’ll be acquired so I’ll always keep a hundred on. Great stock for swing trading, so will load back up on any dip. My max size position is 3000 shares, but I never seem to get the opp to add that many on.
7. QQQ #JadeLizard closed for 50% profit, this week’s expiration
8. SPY 266/267 #BuCS closed for 90% profit. This was bought based on #UOA (unusual option activity). SPY trades massive volume in fund flow, obviously—but it’s almost all put hedges. Every once in awhile a big bullish trade hits the tape, and those are ones for my attention.
9. NUE Closed a BuCS for 50% profit, this is another one that was bought on #UOA
10. NUE Opened a #Fuzzy Apr 60/60/50 for 1.87 core debit, Dec 15 62 call short for .56, Score is 3.3. There was a lot of bullish option flow on this today….all the way up to the 70 call line.
11 NUE spec trade based on #UOA bought 100 Jan 70 calls for .16, just looking for .21 as my target
12 MU #EarningsRunUp added two more calls to the trade from last week. Looking for 30% profit on these and must close before earnings announcement.
13 AMC #UOA There was unusual activity on AMC right before the other cinema merger happened last week. Turns out AMC confirms they’ve been approached too, regarding investment options. I’m glad I sold a few puts when I saw the fund flow. Netted 50%, $370.00 on a 10-lot
14. MSFT I like to layer on a lot of different MSFT trades. I love what they’re doing with Azure. However I saw a lot of January put buying today on MSFT, so I cut a trade short (#BuCS) for 28% profit vs. the 50% I was looking for. I still have on a MSFT #Butterfly that I’m watching closely. 80/85/90 for Feb.
15. ALGN This is the last of my trades from the tech crash. I defended it resulting in half what the max loss would have been. All closed now for $1150 loss. Classic case of thinking it would come back. Could have been handled better, but could have been handled much worse. I wouldn’t mind resetting with a #bitty or #PutRatioSpread the problem is that it’s just really thin. The Market Makers are not the worst I’ve dealt with (ISRG, KORS, ULTA are worse) but it’s still a struggle.
16. TWTR Opened a #Fuzzy in a 401K. I again saw some large bullish fund flow on TWTR and it had a good score. Mar 22/22/18 core for .78, sold Dec 22.5 call for .46, score is roughly 2. Not sure how this one will work out, but I’m still developing the perfect candidate profile for the Fuzzies.
@fuzzballl I hope you are ok being the namesake on these trades. It’s cute!
12/8 Happy Friday
1. NVDA: Fully closed the #JadeLizard sold for 3.62, partial cover at 1.62 yesterday, rest covered today at 1.35
2. BA: Closed the contrarian BePS, closed for .66 shy of full loss. Prob of touch is still high enough I should have held, but it’s just continuing to be a train.
3. LRCX: Closed the #PutRatioSpread for over 50% gain, 1.45, $1555.00. Recovery mission on big loss last week.
4. MSFT: #Bitty closed for 50%, this was Jan 80/75 BuPS for .82 cr, covered .41
5. SPX : I’m kind of thinking we see a strong market into next week’s expiration, so rolled the short puts on the #RocketManHedge from 2605 to 2625. Realized $2820 in the roll.
6. SPY: Opened #SpikedLizard for January. Part 1: 264/265/267 for 3.74 cr Part 2 (spike) 260/253 ratio put spread for .05. No upside risk, downside BE is 253 due to the spike. Need SPY price above $260 for meaningful profit. 50% target. I’d like to ladder these every 2 weeks.
7. SPX: Opened 7DTE #Bitty I said I didn’t want to do 7DTE Bitties any more, but betting we see an upside into next week’s expiration. Of course I could be all wrong. Got more credit than usual on these. Dec 15 2630/2625 BuPS for average price of .875 credit, 50% target
8. TXN: Opened BuPS for January 97.5/95 for .72, 50% target
9. TJX: Continued defense. Sold Dec 15 calls to adjust deltas
10. MU: Opened #EarningsRunUp trade based on historical backtesting. Partial position. Dec 22 47.5 call for 1.04.
11. PIR: Closed #EarningsRunUp trade for 28% profit, bought at .35, sold at .45
12. ABBV: Opened #BuPS for January 92.5/90 for .56, target 50%
13. FLIR: Opened #SyntheticCoveredCall for January 47 puts for 1.40, very high historical win rate on short puts for this company
14. BBY: Closed the contrarian BePS for loss, salvaging .60 from max loss
15. AAPL: I already have a BuPS on for next week, used this little upswing today to sell calls converting it to an #IronButterfly.
Opening trades:
:
SPX: #rocketmanhedge thank you @fuzzballl Feb +2635 put, -2635c, +2640c for 40.15 net, -Dec 2605p for $5.40, Basis = 34.62.
COT: Last month there was a day with 4 large block trades totaling over 4 million in shares. It sparked a lot of call activity. I’ve been waiting for closer to 13f releases for Dec to see if call activity picks up again, it sure did today, so I have a little spec play on for COT for next week. 17.5 calls for .34
MAR: #JadeLizard for next week Dec -126p/-130c/+132 c for 1.21 net cr, 50% target
TJX: Added #BECS to #BUPS to convert to iron fly for defense
Closing Trades:
BA #Bitty Closed at 50% target, sold at .50, bought at .25
TTWO #BUCS Bought 2.65 sold 3.10 net .45/contract
FB #shortputs covered for 50% Sold at 1.10, covered at .55
NVDA #JadeLizard from last week is beginning to cover for 50% Sold 185/205/207.5 for 3.62, cover order is partially filled at 1.62
Trade Recap
Here’s trades not already mentioned today:
CVX: Closed #JadeLizard for $230 profit before it “slid down the slope” on the right-side P/L graph
QQQ: Opened #SharkfinHedge (as coined by Bruce Marshall) before market direction became solidified today. Dec 8 153/148/146 put fly for .53 (called sharkfin because of the P/L picture). Wanted just a bit of tech protection in case sell off continued.
NDX: Managed BeCS hedge, took 1/2 off, rolled other half to new strikes.
RH: Opened long calls (Dec 8 106) for earnings run up trade, will be closed day before earnings, high historical win rate
BA: Bitty hit profit target for $276, rolled to new expiration (Dec 15 270/267 for .50)
SPX: Rolled BeCS to new strikes for extra range
IWM: Closed JadeLizard early for $25.00 scratch (it was kind of a hedgie jade lizard, no longer needed)
NTNX: Added last tranche of short puts before earnings, trade is up very nicely after hours
PLAY: Closed long calls on Earnings run up trade for $165 (40%) profit, trade based on historical win rate.
Net Liq repair project still underway, but nice progress today
Sue
FB #Defense I’ve got #ShortPuts…
FB #Defense
I’ve got #ShortPuts on FB (sized for assignment–always), at the time they were delta-19, the 177.5 for .71 cr. With this little upswing I sold a BeCS against those puts to create a #JadeLizard type setup. I sold the Dec 15 182.5/185 for .56 cr. This gives me a new break even of 176.23. I accomplished the following: 1. extended profit range 2. increased max profit 3. flattened deltas 4. added risk to the upside
NDX, PYPL, MOMO, ALGN, BA, NVDA, KORS, SPX
NDX: Rolled BeCS from 6460/70 to 6360/70, took profit, reset for delta control against BuPS
PYPL: Covered short calls (Covered Call) and reset on upswing
MOMO: Closed defended earnings trade for net $97.00 profit, used #Inversion defense
ALGN: Added a BeCS to my BuPS for delta management
BA: Bruce Marshall did a class last night at ST, I bought the #Butterfly setup from the class, it’s a directional Butterfly: Jan 18 265/275/285 10×20 for 2.55 debit, target 3.06
NVDA: Fuzzball reminded me to get an NVDA position open, put on a #JadeLizard Dec 15 short 185 put, short 205 call, long 207.5 call for net credit of 3.23, up nicely now, target cover 1.62.
KORS: This started as a post-earnings Iron Condor with good backtest history, but it has gone through SO much defense. Very happy to take it off today. I show a profit after many adjustments, but I don’t quite trust that I have the right baseline number.
SPX: I closed 3 of 4 #Bitty for a +$50 scratch. I added a BeCS to the 4th 2650/2655 for 1.45 cr for delta management.
I know these posts are lacking proper detail, but it’s been a very challenging day for me, trying to get the cows back into the corral!
Sue
NVDA
In an #IRA – Sold NVDA JUN 15 2018 140.0 Put @ 4.00
ADSK, NFLX, NTNX
This is a whackadoodle day for me, lots of trades, not much time for detailed math:
ADSK Defense Trades:
1. Sold to open Dec 1 110 calls at the open for $3.90
2. Rolled 1/2 of my Dec 1 120 short puts to Dec 15 for .45 credit
3. Closed the other 1/2 of my Dec 1 120 short puts for big loss
4. Waited for further drop and closed my Dec 1 121 long puts for big gain
5. Sold 5 Dec 15 113 calls
6. Waited for turn signal and covered the 110 calls (from above) for 1.41
7. At a spot now w/ ADSK where I can let the dust settle. Net loss right now is about $2800.00
NTNX
1. Sold an additional 5 Dec 35 puts for earnings (portfolio-build strategy)
NFLX
I had a modified #JadeLizard from 2 days ago, the put side of that trade is the 190/180 spread. I #Butterfly (butterflied) that put spread for defense.
STO 4 Dec 15 190 put
BTO 4 Dec 15 200 put net debit 6.29
I love butterflying spreads for defense, it accomplishes 4 things: 1. Flatten deltas 2. Raise max loss 3. Widen profit range 4. Raise max profit
NDX #Bitty Conversion 2 more…
NDX #Bitty Conversion
2 more orders slipped in before the close. I have a special indicator I’ll share with everyone soon, but it gave me a flag on QQQ, so I quickly layered on a BeCS onto my NDX Bitty from yesterday to flatten deltas, extend range, raise max loss, and increase max profit:
On already from yesterday: Dec 8 6330/6325 BuPS for .80 cr x10
Added: Dec 8 6460/6470 BeCS for 3.26 cr x 5 (half size due to 10-wide)
Also added QQQ #JadeLizard due to backtest study I’ve run for timing.
Dec 15 Short 154 put/ Short 158 call/long 159 call for net credit of .90 x 5 BE 153.07 to down side, there’s .10 of upside risk.
NFLX #Bitty Bought to close…
NFLX #Bitty
Bought to close at 50% target. Nov 21 sold the Dec 8 190/180 #BuPS for $1.20, covered today at .60. 10 contracts = $600.00
After reviewing the chart I have decided to re-load with a modified #JadeLizard or #SkewedIronCondor . New trade entered: Dec 15 long 180 put/short 190 put/short 202.5 call/long 205 call x 10 for 1.68 credit. Break even 188.33/204.19. Target is 50% .84 for cover. My modified Jade Lizard uses 25/5 deltas for the put side, 35/30 deltas for the call side.
Options Bistro 