Hi everyone! The FB #PutRatioJadeLizard from yesterday was closed today for 33% profit. My target was 50% but, as you know, when a underlying hits the right-side slope of a Jade Lizard risk graph the accrued profits start dropping off. But I opened a new #IronCondor on it. Because the alternate sides have different strike widths I skewed the contract amounts.
Apr 20 150/155/182.5/185 5×7 IC (5 on put side, 7 on call side), net credit 5.83, BE 153.80/183.30
I plan to layer in a lot of SPY Put Ratio Jade Lizards whenever there’s a 20DTE on the chain.
Today: Apr 11 +273p/-272p x2 @2.37cr, -275/277 CCS @ .69 cr
A long time ago I wrote about waiting for a 3-of-5 bar 1-standard deviation up move before trusting a rally. It’s looking like that might be a good rally indicator, only because we can’t seem to barely get a 1-SD up move at all. In SPX we now have 16 straight bars I think with a 20-day 1SD up move rolling total of 1. I’ve only found 3 times in history going back to 1987 where we’ve gone this long with so few 1SD up moves. It speaks to the choppy nature of markets, and to not get faked out on rallies until a solid string of 1SD up moves unfolds. I’m watching it every day, will obviously keep posting about it.