FB update

Hi everyone! The FB #PutRatioJadeLizard from yesterday was closed today for 33% profit. My target was 50% but, as you know, when a underlying hits the right-side slope of a Jade Lizard risk graph the accrued profits start dropping off. But I opened a new #IronCondor on it. Because the alternate sides have different strike widths I skewed the contract amounts.
Apr 20 150/155/182.5/185 5×7 IC (5 on put side, 7 on call side), net credit 5.83, BE 153.80/183.30

I plan to layer in a lot of SPY Put Ratio Jade Lizards whenever there’s a 20DTE on the chain.
Today: Apr 11 +273p/-272p x2 @2.37cr, -275/277 CCS @ .69 cr

A long time ago I wrote about waiting for a 3-of-5 bar 1-standard deviation up move before trusting a rally. It’s looking like that might be a good rally indicator, only because we can’t seem to barely get a 1-SD up move at all. In SPX we now have 16 straight bars I think with a 20-day 1SD up move rolling total of 1. I’ve only found 3 times in history going back to 1987 where we’ve gone this long with so few 1SD up moves. It speaks to the choppy nature of markets, and to not get faked out on rallies until a solid string of 1SD up moves unfolds. I’m watching it every day, will obviously keep posting about it.



#shortcallspreads AZO IWM March 16,…

#shortcallspreads AZO IWM

March 16, sold a fuzzball inspired March 23, 670/675 call spread for .83, decided to close today for .25,being careful, particularly after taking it on the chin on a Tradewise IWM call spread today as well.

$KHC – you have to…

$KHC – you have to go back more than 3 years to find a price below 62. And its close to that now.
All the Packaged food stocks are taking it on the chin. $PG $KMB $GIS $CPB $KHC.
These are normally defensive stocks and are historically less volatile than the market.
The rotation out of these may continue for a few weeks until earnings season focuses attention elsewhere.


#SyntheticStock – I’ll generally leave these closing orders in for a nickel through Wednesday. After that I’ll lower them to about .03 on Thursday and then .02 or .01 on Friday. Figuring I can pay the nickel on Wed and make it up by getting to sell next week’s a few days early.

Bought to Close CELG MAR 23 2018 93.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .47)

Sold CELG MAR 29 2018 91.0 Calls @ .61

$KHC $CMCSA #FallingKnife – two…

$KHC $CMCSA #FallingKnife – two SP500 dividend payers hitting new lows for the year.
Liking the CMCSA Jul 32.5 Puts at 1.35-1.37 and the Jul 57.5 Puts for KHC at 1.55-1.60.
Trying not to go all the way out to October yet.

Short Puts CRM

$CRM STO 4/20 120/125 BUPS at 2.20


Yesterday after my hedge got run over for a 3rd time in 4 I closed my Sept 46/46/44 #syntheticstock which I opened 2/28.
All said and done made $4.18 per spread. Waiting for a pullback to get back in.