March 2 #Fuzzy Land: Self…

March 2 #Fuzzy Land: Self Assignment
Hi Bistro Friends! I did a #SelfAssignment on MSFT today, converting naked puts into an #AtomicFuzzy. I really like selling 3-4DTE naked puts on MSFT on dips. Been doing it for 18 months it seems, with assignment always assumed but never realized. Today finally was the first chance for assignment. So I chose to do self-assignment into an #atomicfuzzy.
Original trade: STO MSFT Mar 2 94 puts for .72 closed for 1.90, loss: $1118
Atomic Fuzzy: BTO MSFT Apr 92.5/92.5/90 x10 w/ 95/97.5 Call spread for -.80 x24
A move to 94 can get me back to even with a fraction of the risk vs. taking stock assignment. There’s a hockey-stick graph above that for gains.

Atomics have become a big focus for me. I partitioned funds last week for a “hedge fund” type approach to them. Timing may be off a bit…but serious testing is in progress. I haven’t said much about this, but I think there is a ton of edge in these trades….just working on proving it out now. Even though they have nice risk control, they still need a rising market for performance. So, just laying in wait now for that to happen. I was able to take a lot of profits on previous Atomics last week. The CLOSED fuzzy profit for the quarter is now $32,994. But, I’m under water on my newest fuzzies. I was able to use #FuzzyBear trades this week to gain a few k’s.

I had a bit of an epiphany this week regarding a previous post I did that showed we need 3-of-5 one standard deviation up moves before a rally can be trusted. I’ve been watching every single day for even a 1 standard deviation up move and we haven’t had it. I realized that the huge SD down moves tamp down any further SD’s until they age off the averaging. So there’s a coincidental relationship between what I thought was 3 1-SD up moves and the big SD down moves aging off. What I thought was a wait for 3 1SD up moves was probably actually a wait for the big SD to age off, which gives it time to retest lows while waiting. Anyway….if any of this makes sense to you, welcome to my brain. The big SD down moves age off my system in the next 2 trading days. Then there should be more realistic SD data to evaluate.
Have a great weekend everyone!

Sue

Options Expiration 3/2/18

#OptionsExpiration #Earnings

— Expiring w/max profit —
$AZO 790 calls
$SPLK 84/112 #ShortStrangles

Expirations

#optionsexpiration
$SPX 2655/2680 BUPS
$SPX 2600/2625 BUPS
$DVN 35 call (Covered)
$DVN 32 call (Covered)
$AZO 790 call Part of earnings strangle Thank you @jeffcp66

Everyone have a restful weekend. Strong winds and rain in Long Island area.
Thanks to everyone for the great information and support.

Options Expiration for 3/2

$AMZN Mar 2 1220/1320/1550/1650 iron condors
$AMZN Mar 2 1250/1240 put spreads
$AZO Mar 2 655/790 strangle (#Earnings trade from @jeffcp66–I got lucky on the dismount)
$DUST Mar 2 35 calls

No assignments.

A nice move down in the VIX today brought in some premium but it’s still really elevated (futures over 4% in backwardation). Today’s up volume in SPY was about average (based on the 50dma) but not as high as yesterday’s down move. Could this be a higher low or just a bounce after 3 big down days, a reprieve on the way to lower prices? We’ll see next week.

Oscar predictions:
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell
Best Actress: Frances McDormand
Best Actor: Gary Oldman
Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro (Shape of Water)
Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Probably not much of a stretch there, but go make some money in your Oscar pool 🙂

Have a great weekend everyone.

CME Fuzzy

My weekly hedge of March 2, 170 call will expire so I will sell the March 9 call on Monday which I hope will be the 175 call. That is it for this week Have a nice weekend to everyone. The call was against my 160,160,155 in 2020.

Correction? What correction? NFLX at all-time highs.

Just pushed above 300 for the first time.
Rolled 3/23 265/295 strangles out to 3/29 270/300 for .20 credit.

UNH

BTC April 20, 80 put @.10 on 1 contract. Sold @1.95