Sammy 8:00 am on Thursday, February 6, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings UBER Dbl Cal? Any…

#earnings
UBER Dbl Cal?
Any thoughts? The vol crush looks promising but, I’ve only done a few.

Jeff 8:13 am on Thursday, February 6, 2020

Vol crush in first week is great, but vol in second week is too high to make the trade promising. My modeling shows .58 cost and only .53 in profit. I like to look for 150% to 200% return.
- Sammy 8:36 am on Thursday, February 6, 2020
  
  Jeff,
  I’ve watched your excellent webinar on Dbl Cal., but I suspect there is a flaw in my modeling using TOS.
  With a .58 debit and a 37 strike, I calculate a vol adjust of -82% and -21%.
  This yields a .58 debit with a profit of .82
  Still short of the desired 150 to 200%
  I think my method of calculating vol adjust is wrong!!!!
  - Jeff 8:41 am on Thursday, February 6, 2020
    
    I’m adjusting volatility down to 45%, which are the far out months currently. That would give vol adjustments of -100 for this week and -41 for next week. Now it is showing even lower profit.
    
    Where do you think the discrepancy in our calculations is coming from?

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