MTCH

STO April 70 puts at 2.05, next earnings are not until May and $70 is near the low in December.

NFLX short calls

Sold $NFLX 2/21 395 calls (covered by stock) @ 1.75. Delta 14.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 7th 3280/3300-3370/3390 for 1.10. IV: 10.46%, SPX SPX 3343, deltas: -.07, .08

GNRC

STO May 15, 90 puts at 2.35, earnings are on Feb. 13 but, I will take the chance. Stock trading at 102.74

Rolling BA

$BA the short calls from my 2/21 iron condor (290/300/340/350) just got breached with the stock up nicely today. I rolled the 300/290 bull put spread up to 340/330 for 3.73 credit to create an iron butterfly with the call spread. A pretty aggressive roll to near the money but this is a strong move up through the 50 day moving average on volume. Total premium taken on now 6.31 against 10 point wide wings. If the move continues I will roll to March.

TSLA strangle

Yesterday morning I sold the $TSLA Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles for 9.825. When the stock peaked around 780 today, these two options were about equal in value… despite the put being 230 points away, and the call being 520 points away! Stock action is indicating that the super crazy moves may be subsiding, despite the heavy skew to the call side. I’m looking to sell another one in the Feb 21st expiration, but I will likely wait until tomorrow. Would like to see this one get at least to 4.90 (50%) before I consider closing.

Since the price target is now $7,000 in 5 years, would love to get a long LEAP but the highest strikes are 1880 and going for 40.00-ish.

PINS earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $PINS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its 3 quarters of existence.

Oct. 31, 2019 AC -17.02%
Aug. 1, 2019 AC +18.62%
May 16, 2019 AC -13.48%

Avg (+ or -) 16.37%
Bias -3.96%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 22.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 19.79 to 25.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 3 quarters: 19.03 to 26.47
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 3 Q’s (18.6%): 18.51 to 26.99
Based on DOWN max only (-17.0%): 18.88

Open to requests for other symbols.

#rolling TSLA For the feint…

#rolling TSLA

For the feint of heart who haven’t been following this, prepare yourself.

Rolled Feb. 21 inverted 300/430 short strangle to March 20 for 2.69. TSLA up to 770 today, uggh
I’ve now taken in $10,756, trying to avoid assignment.

Earnings chart error: BIDU

$BIDU is reporting on Feb 27.

UBER earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $UBER reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its 3 quarters of existence.

Nov. 4, 2019 AC -9.84%
Aug. 8, 2019 AC -6.79%
May 30, 2019 AC +1.53%

Avg (+ or -) 6.05%
Bias -5.03%%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 37.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 33.88 to 40.12
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 3 quarters: 34.76 to 39.24
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 3 Q’s (9.8%): 33.36 to 40.64
Based on UP max only (+1.5%): 37.57

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings UBER Dbl Cal? Any…

#earnings
UBER Dbl Cal?
Any thoughts? The vol crush looks promising but, I’ve only done a few.

NFLX

STO $NFLX Feb-14-2020 340/350 #BuPS @1.00. Short put is 17 Delta.

This is one I’m going to watch closely, and will close out quickly if it moves too much the wrong direction.

CMG

BTC Feb-7-2020 815/825 #BuPS @0.05. Was STO 2/4/2020 @1.4. Thanks all, especially @jeffcp66 for data!

CMG TWTR Put Closed / HIIQ Roll Call (Present!)

#shortputs #earnings
$CMG BTC 2/7 820 put at .05. STO at 6.30 2/4.
$TWTR BTC 2/21 30 put at .03. STO 12/30 at 1.20. Thank you @fuzzballl

#coveredcalls
$HIIQ BTC 2/21 24 call and STO 3/20 26 call at added .55 credit. Earnings are 3/5.

PAYC

STO March 270 puts at 5.40, stock at 298 after earnings last night.

CAH

BTC on GTC order CAH Feb 21 52 put @.15…STO 1/29 @.92

#shortputs

Living on the edge

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 7th 3300 call for 37.80.

This was the short spread I sold Monday for 4.30. I must have been high on hopium the next day when I was clearly wrong and didn’t close it.

And today I must be higher because I’m trying to leg out. But if the pattern repeats itself, we get a small sell off from morning gap-up down to flat, then we rally rest of day. So hopefully now my long 3325 calls will rally higher and I will lessen the closing price of the spread from its current 20.00 down closer to 10.00.

TWTR closing

#Earnings Based on pre-market I set my first order for 3 of my 9 options to close too cheaply.

Sold (3) $TWTR Feb 7th 33.5 calls for 3.50. Then a few minutes later sold (5) for 4.60. Only 1 left.

#LongStrangles bought for 3.05 yesterday.