SWKS Strangle Closed

#earnings #shortstrangles
$SWKS BTC 2/21 110/145 strangle at .15. STO 1/23 for 1.67. Thank you @jsd501

BABA Earnings

#earnings #shortputs #becs
$BABA STO 2/14 212.50 put at 1.13
$BABA STO 2/14 235/240 BECS at .92

NTAP Earnings

#ShortPuts – Not much out there to do right now. A couple accounts with no positions at all completely in cash. I’ll take a small shot here.

Sold NTAP FEB 14 2020 57.5 Puts @ .79

#doublecalendarYELP I have not modeled…

#doublecalendarYELP

I have not modeled it yet, but at first glance, YELP has a large IV drop coming.

Thoughts?

TAP dance

#Earnings . Bought to close $TAP Feb 14th 58 calls for .10. This will clear the way for a bigger profit if stock recovers. #DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for .17 and .20

FB

BTC $FB 195/205 Feb-14-2020 #BuPS @ 0.18. Was STO Jan-30-2020 @1.85.
Still holding a 195/205 Feb-21-2020 #BuPS

SPX closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 12th 3385 calls for .40. Condors sold for 1.05 yesterday. Expected-move stop was hit this morning.

Closing UNH

Bought to close $UNH 3/20 250P @ .94. Sold for 4.50 on 1/31.

Rolling BA

From my adjusted iron condor (to a 330/340/350 iron butterfly in 2/21), rolled to 3/20 335/345/350/360 iron condor @ .63 credit. Total premium for position now 6.94 against 10 point wide wings. Stock at 346.80.

TRADES:

OSTK STO 2/21/20 9.0 CALLS @.50
SPCE BTO STOCK @21.82 & 22.17
SPCE STO 2/21/20 24.0 CALLS @.93

PANW

#ShortPuts – One of the few red bars I’m seeing today. Selling pretty tight at the 50ma but it’s the week before earnings so should have great premium to roll or sell into if needed.

Sold PANW FEB 21 2020 237.5 Put @ 2.05

EXAS Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Not worth holding for 3 more days…

Bought to Close EXAS FEB 14 2020 87.5 Puts @ .15 (sold for 1.05)

SHOP Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Thanks for playing. See you in 3 months!

Bought to Close SHOP FEB 14 2020 450.0 Put @ .10 (sold for 5.10)

GILD

#ShortPuts – Adding to a previous sale…

Sold GILD MAR 06 2020 65.0 Puts @ 1.30

BABA earnings analysis

#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 1, 2019 BO -0.11%
Aug. 15, 2019 BO +3.02%
May 15, 2019 BO +1.57%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +6.33% Biggest UP
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%

Avg (+ or -) 2.75%
Bias 0.71%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 221.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 210.84 to 232.16
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 215.41 to 227.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 207.48 to 235.52
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 208.43

Open to requests for other symbols.

AMAT earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 14, 2019 AC +8.95% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2019 AC -1.12%
May 16, 2019 AC +2.49%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC +1.08%
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -7.71%
May 17, 2018 AC -8.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +3.89%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC -2.33%
Aug. 17, 2017 AC +2.73%
May 18, 2017 AC +0.38%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC -0.87%

Avg (+ or -) 3.65%
Bias -0.39%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 65.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 61.61 to 68.39
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 62.63 to 67.37
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 59.18 to 70.82
Based on DOWN max only (-8.2%): 59.64

Open to requests for other symbols.

Electrified

Looks like $SHOP is trying to pull a $TSLA this morning.

#bups, #takethemoneyandrun