#closing #shortputs TSLA I’m a…

#closing #shortputs TSLA

I’m a long long way from anything reasonable in TSLA.
Today sold Feb. 21, 700 put for 28.55. After this crazy move today I bought it back for 24.10. I’ll look at it again tomorrow.

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte Yes, I’m going for a bearish trade again. My sentiment was accurate last week but buying a put spread was the wrong play. It did carry less risk, but had I sold a call spread like this it would have worked.

Sold $SPX Feb 7th 3300/3325 call spreads for 4.30.

#earnings #shortstrangles CMI Sold Feb….

#earnings #shortstrangles CMI

Sold Feb. 21, 150/175 strangle for 1.49, inside of 1 day max moves, stock at 164.

Thanks for ther data Jeff.

CMI earnings analysis

#Earnings $CMI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 29, 2019 BO -1.61%
July 30, 2019 BO -5.05%
April 30, 2019 BO +1.30%
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -0.31%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO +2.29%
July 31, 2018 BO +4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +6.09% Biggest UP
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +3.06%

Avg (+ or -) 3.15%
Bias -0.35%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 164.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 157.24 to 170.76
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 158.84 to 169.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.1%): 154.01 to 173.99
Based on DOWN max only (-5.6%): 154.75

FYI, 5-day Max moves are +7.95% and -9.58%.

Open to requests for other symbols.

TRADES:

I BTC 2/7/20 7.5 CALLS @.05 STO @.35
I STO 2/14/20 4.5 CALLS @.30
SYY BTO STOCK @77.33 & 77.55 Had a big drop today.

MRVL ROKU ZM Calls / NEWT Assigned Early / GSX Put Closed

#coveredcalls
$MRVL STO 2/21 25 call at .60
$ROKU STO 2/7 25 call at 1.60
$ZM STO 2/7 78 call at 1.25

#shortputs #earlyassignment
$NEWT 2/21 22.50 assigned. Basis 22.05. Stock at 20.73. Ooops
$GSX BTC 2/21 30 put at $2.00. STO on 1/23 at 2.60. Corona aversion.

#earnings #closing #pain TSLA Jan….

#earnings #closing #pain TSLA

Jan. 29 sold a Feb. 21, 570 put for 37.26, bought Jan. 30 for 9.30
Jan. 29 bought, Feb. 21 580/595 call spread for 6.35, Jan. 30 sold for 11.20
Today sold Feb. 21 700 put for 28.55.

GOOGL earnings analysis

#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 28, 2019 AC -2.19%
July 25, 2019 AC +9.62% Biggest UP
April 29, 2019 AC -7.50% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 4, 2019 AC +0.91%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -1.79%
July 23, 2018 AC +3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +4.26%
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.71%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -1.39%

Avg (+ or -) 4.02%
Bias -0.29%, small negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 1470.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1390.91 to 1549.09
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1410.92 to 1529.08
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 1328.59 to 1611.41
Based on DOWN max only (-7.5%): 1359.75

FYI, 5-day Max moves are +8.10% and -8.23%, so not much difference.

Open to requests for other symbols.

TSLA

BTC $TSLA 490/500 Feb 21 #BuPS @0.20. Was STO 1/29 @2.1

SPX closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 3rd 3105 puts for .05. Condors sold Friday for 1.25. I’ll let the 3285 call side expire.