#closing #shortputs TSLA I’m a…

#closing #shortputs TSLA

I’m a long long way from anything reasonable in TSLA.
Today sold Feb. 21, 700 put for 28.55. After this crazy move today I bought it back for 24.10. I’ll look at it again tomorrow.

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte Yes, I’m going for a bearish trade again. My sentiment was accurate last week but buying a put spread was the wrong play. It did carry less risk, but had I sold a call spread like this it would have worked.

Sold $SPX Feb 7th 3300/3325 call spreads for 4.30.

#earnings #shortstrangles CMI Sold Feb….

#earnings #shortstrangles CMI

Sold Feb. 21, 150/175 strangle for 1.49, inside of 1 day max moves, stock at 164.

Thanks for ther data Jeff.

CMI earnings analysis

#Earnings $CMI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 29, 2019 BO -1.61%
July 30, 2019 BO -5.05%
April 30, 2019 BO +1.30%
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -0.31%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO +2.29%
July 31, 2018 BO +4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +6.09% Biggest UP
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +3.06%

Avg (+ or -) 3.15%
Bias -0.35%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 164.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 157.24 to 170.76
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 158.84 to 169.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.1%): 154.01 to 173.99
Based on DOWN max only (-5.6%): 154.75

FYI, 5-day Max moves are +7.95% and -9.58%.

Open to requests for other symbols.

TSLA

TSLA Goes Full AOL – Explodes 25% In 3 Days
TSLA is the new AOL

VIAC

New Diagonal Put Spread
Sold VIAC 02/21/2020 32.50 Puts / Bought VIAC 03/20/2020 27.50 Puts @ 0.74 Credit.
Earnings on 2/20.
The stock is at it’s lowest price since 2012

TRADES:

I BTC 2/7/20 7.5 CALLS @.05 STO @.35
I STO 2/14/20 4.5 CALLS @.30
SYY BTO STOCK @77.33 & 77.55 Had a big drop today.