#coveredcalls $OKTA BTC 2/14 134…

#coveredcalls
$OKTA BTC 2/14 134 and STO 2/21 137 call at .40 debit. Stock at 137.25
$GSX BTC 2/21 40 and STO 3/20 45 call at .65 debit. Stock then fell $4.50 to 36.23. Oh timing where art thou sting?

SHOP

STO $SHOP Feb-21-2020 440/450 #BuPS @1.80. #Earnings.

Did this around lunch time, but hadn’t posted it yet – you can do slightly better now. Actually put my order in a $2, and only got one fill. Adjusted down to 1.80 and got the rest.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 12th 3295/3315-3385/3405 condors for 1.05. IV 10.30%, SPX 3357, deltas -.08, +.07

TSLA

#ShortPuts – Profitable stop set on my previous sale. Adding another one 70 points outside the expected move…

Sold TSLA MAR 13 2020 550.0 Put @ 6.10

SHOP put spread

#Earnings Sold to Open $SHOP Feb 14th 465/460 put spreads for 1.40. Filled when stock hit 493.50, so short strike is 5.8% OTM. Stock has dropped more than that only twice on last 12 earnings.

TSLA closed

Closed final batch this morning for .65… Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles sold last Wednesday for 9.82.

Watching to sell another one, although premium has come in quite a bit. Need another large move or the excitement may be over.

TAP earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $TAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 30, 2019 BO -3.09%
July 31, 2019 BO -5.14%
May 1, 2019 BO -7.54%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO -9.44%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +9.94% Biggest UP
Aug. 1, 2018 BO +3.47%
May 2, 2018 BO -15.40% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 BO +6.26%
Nov. 1, 2017 BO +0.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 BO +2.95%
May 4, 2017 BO +0.92%
Feb. 14, 2017 BO +3.41%

Avg (+ or -) 5.65%
Bias -1.12%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 58.35 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.76 to 61.94
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 55.05 to 61.65
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.4%): 49.36 to 67.34
Based on UP max only (+9.9%): 64.15

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalemdar, #doublecalendar

ADBE

STO $ADBE Mar-21-2020 335/345 #BuPS @1.65 – Earnings on Mar 12th. Short put 21 Delta.

LK

On the move up this AM taking 50%….BTC LK 21 FEB 44/44.5/28 #jadelizard @.55….STO 1/30 @1.13..

LYFT earnings

Sold $LYFT 2/21 48/61 strangles @ 1.23. Earnings idea from TastyTrade. Strikes outside the expected move.

NFLX

BTC $NFLX Feb-14-2020 340/350 #BuPS @0.10. Was STO Feb-6-2020 @1.00

AMD

#ShortPuts – A few more…

Bought to Close AMD FEB 28 2020 42.0 Puts @ .06 (sold for .72)

WYNN

#ShortPuts #Earnings – This was originally an earnings play so booking it on the bounce. There’s gotta be some China risk in this one…

Bought to Close WYNN FEB 21 2020 123.0 Puts @ .98 (sold for 2.08)

ISRG

#ShortPuts – Third time this year so far so don’t mind bailing early…

Bought to Close ISRG FEB 14 2020 557.5 Put @ .35 (sold for 3.12)

SHOP Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – This stock has gone vertical and seems priced for perfection so this is kinda risky. Selling at the expected move. With very few positions on now, earnings is about the only action.

Sold SHOP FEB 14 2020 450.0 Put @ 5.10

TQQQ XBI

#ShortPuts – Cleaning up some scraps that are still weeks from expiration…

Bought to Close TQQQ FEB 28 2020 80.0 Put @ .22 (sold for 2.31)

Bought to Close XBI MAR 20 2020 79.0 Put @ .09 (sold for 1.04)
Bought to Close XBI MAR 20 2020 80.0 Put @ .11 (sold for 1.00)

AMAT analysis — Got anything…

AMAT analysis — Got anything on $AMAT for tomorrow, @Jeff?

SHOP earnings analysis

#Earnings $SHOP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 29, 2019 BO -3.81%
Aug. 1, 2019 BO +7.39%
April 30, 2019 BO +7.85%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +1.37%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%

Avg (+ or -) 6.18%
Bias 2.19%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 497.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 451.53 to 543.47
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 466.75 to 528.25
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 43765 to 557.35
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 452.63

Open to requests for other symbols.

EXAS earnings analysis

#Earnings $EXAS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 29, 2019 AC -7.28%
July 30, 2019 AC -2.35%
April 30, 2019 AC -1.48%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +10.51%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +10.32%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -12.66% Biggest DOWN
April 26, 2018 AC +11.63%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -5.82%
Oct. 30, 2017 AC +9.76%
July 25, 2017 AC +6.21%
April 27, 2017 BO +26.63% Biggest UP
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +12.55%

Avg (+ or -) 9.77%
Bias 4.84%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 97.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.87 to 105.13
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 87.53 to 106.47
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.6%): 71.17 to 122.83
Based on DOWN max only (-12.7%): 84.72

Open to requests for other symbols.