SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 19th 3305/3325-3395/3415 condors for .95, IV 10.00%, SPX 3369, deltas -.07, +.07

Expiring: Feb 18th 3295/3315-3410/3430 condors, sold Friday for 1.05

HLF earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $HLF reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 29, 2019 AC +11.67%
Aug. 1, 2019 AC -6.77% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2019 AC -4.51%
Feb. 19, 2019 AC -2.01%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -2.61%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +13.03% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 AC +4.47%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC +3.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -2.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC -1.95%
May 4, 2017 AC +11.57%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -4.51%

Avg (+ or -) 5.75%
Bias 1.54%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 39.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.89 to 42.11
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 36.76 to 41.24
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.00%): 33.92 to 44.08
Based on DOWN max only (-6.8%): 36.36

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPCE

#ShortPuts – A small starter position just to get involved. Earnings next week with huge IV so good for a roll or covered call sale if needed.

Sold SPCE FEB 21 2020 26.0 Puts @ .92

AVGO

#ShortPuts – Now that I’m back in SOXL I’m taking this one off for risk reduction in the whole China semiconductor virus thing. Earnings in March so still watcing it.

Bought to Close AVGO MAR 06 2020 287.5 Put @ 1.30 (sold for 2.21)

Selling puts on AAPL

Sold $AAPL 3/20 305/295 bull put spread @ 1.78

SLB

#ShortPuts – Thanks @Iceman haven’t been in this one in ages. Great divvy down here too…

Sold SLB MAR 13 2020 32.0 Puts @ .63

FB

BTC $FB Feb-21-2020 195/205 #BuPS @0.08. Was STO 1/29 as a Feb 07 @1.2, then rolled to Feb 21 on 1/31 for +0.5.