Largest gap open since 2014

#VIXindicator As I said below, this is the first time I’ve had an open gap breach a short strike on the #SPX1dte strategy, which I started in December 2018. Today’s SPX open price was 2.40% below Friday’s close price.

It got me thinking, how often has that happened?

Well, it used to happen fairly frequently, when the SPX price was below 2000. It happened on a fairly steady basis up into 2014.

But the last time it happened was April 10, 2014, when it opened at 1,830.65 (-2.22%). Since then, today was the ONLY day that SPX gapped 2% or more.

Needless to say a Downside Warning fired today as well.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Bad day. Full loss on 3265/3245 put side. Wipes out about 7 weeks of gains on this strategy. As I said earlier, this was the first time in my 15 months of using this strategy that the open gapped past a short strike. There were some chances to get out for $9 or $10 but I gambled that the situation from there would improve. It didn’t.

LABU

STO March 13, 45 put at 2.00

GILD

#ShortPuts – Looking to load up again on some weakness…

Bought to Close GILD MAR 06 2020 65.0 Puts @ .15 (sold for .92 and 1.30)

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – New sales at higher strikes…

Sold UVXY JAN 19 2021 25.0/35.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.11

NVDA

Rolled $NVDA Feb 28 2020 285/295 #BuPS // Mar-20-2020 @Net Debit of 1.35. Was STO 2/20 @1.4 credit, so this will be barely breakeven if things recover by then.

#DRIP Probably a bad idea,…

#DRIP

Probably a bad idea, but…
STO DRIP Sep18’20 160 CALL@$27.80

I appreciate your suggestions with…

I appreciate your suggestions with this down market I have 3280/3300 BuPS expiring today, now it down in under water, it is currently at $20, what is the best action avoiding losing the $20/contract? I appreciate your input.

VXX gaming

#VXXGame Sold $UVXY March 20th 16 calls for 2.25 (against long 25’s and 30’s)
Sold $VXX March 20th 18 calls for 1.64 (against long 25’s and 27’s)

TSLA closed

BTC $TSLA Feb 28th 1100 #ShortCalls for 1.00. Sold for 5.00 on 2/13. Wish I would have sold for $11.00 plus that they hit last week!

STNE

BTC March 13, 39.5 put at 2.00, sold at 2.05

SHAK earnings analysis

#Earnings $SHAK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 4, 2019 AC -20.63% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 5, 2019 AC +18.24% Biggest UP
May 2, 2019 AC -4.30%
Feb. 25, 2019 AC +0.42%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -13.88%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -11.88%
May 3, 2018 AC +18.01%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -7.71%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -3.36%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -5.45%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.20%
March 1, 2017 AC -2.63%

Avg (+ or -) 9.64%
Bias -2.00%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 74.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 63.23 to 84.77
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 66.86 to 81.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (20.6%): 58.73 to 89.27
Based on UP max only (+18.2%): 87.50

Note: FIVE-day max moves are -26.30% and +25.21%. In most cases, SHAK continued in the same direction in the days following earnings.

Open to requests for other symbols.

SOXL TQQQ

First day of trading for April. Guess the big move caught them by surprise. Stocks are both well below the lowest put strikes. Hopefully more tomorrow.

PANW earnings analysis

#Earnings $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 25, 2019 AC -11.95%
Sept. 4, 2019 AC +5.76%
May 29, 2019 AC -5.11%
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +8.20%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 7.97%
Bias 0.72%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 237.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 219.01 to 254.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 218.12 to 255.88
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 179.76 to 294.24
Based on UP max only (+17.2%): 277.76

Note: FIVE-day max moves are -23.93% and +18.49%, so not much difference.

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPY

#ShortPuts – Starting out with selling around the 200ma. It looks a long way down to it but nothing would surprise me…

Sold SPY APR 17 2020 310.0 Put @ 5.20
Sold SPY MAY 15 2020 300.0 Put @ 4.65

NTAP

#CoveredCalls – Only stock I ended up with during this earnings season…

Bought to Close NTAP FEB 28 2020 54.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.35)
Sold NTAP MAR 20 2020 51.0 Calls @ 1.39

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – New position in a different account…

Sold UVXY JUN 19 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.16

ROKU

#ShortStrangles – Rolling call side down to the expected move and at a lot of resistance.

Rolled ROKU MAR 20 2020 145.0 Call to MAR 20 2020 130.0 Call @ 2.05 credit (7.25 total now)

ULTA

#ShortPuts – No big hurry on this one. Stopped out and looking for a re-entry at some point.

Bought to Close ULTA MAR 6 2020 277.5 Put @ 2.65 (sold for 2.85)

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – Adding a little and closed the rest of another one.

Sold UVXY JUN 19 2020 15.0/25.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.80
Sold UVXY JUN 19 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.12

Taking a little more of the nearer term off…

Bought to Close UVXY MAR 20 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .75 (sold for 1.17)