Daily Archives: Wednesday, February 19, 2020

MikeL 1:05 pm on Wednesday, February 19, 2020  

Question about owning dividend stocks…

Question about owning dividend stocks vs. selling options on the same stocks.

A question came up about returns and benefits of owning dividend paying stocks.

Some argue that holding dividend stocks is a passive strategy that nets 3-5% dividend + possible stock price increase.

On the other hand, selling premium in the same stocks can possibly net 10% per year, while providing a lot of flexibility, like staying out of earnings, using different strategies, etc..

Considering similar risk and possibly lower returns, is it worth it to own dividend stocks?

What is your oppinion?

Jeff 12:07 pm on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
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SPX 1-dte closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 21st 3395 calls for .30. Condors sold for .95 yesterday.

Jeff 11:47 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
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SEDG earnings analysis

#Earnings $SEDG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 6, 2019 AC -0.01%
Aug. 6, 2019 AC +25.11% Biggest UP
May 6, 2019 AC +22.69%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC +1.46%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -7.99%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -13.94% Biggest DOWN
May 9, 2018 AC +16.53%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +24.25%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +19.38%
May 9, 2017 AC +11.04%
Feb. 14, 2017 AC +4.15%
Nov. 9, 2016 AC -0.71%

Avg (+ or -) 12.27%
Bias 8.50%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 123.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 108.93 to 138.07
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 108.34 to 138.66
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (25.1%): 92.49 to 154.51
Based on DOWN max only (-13.9%): 106.28

Open to requests for other symbols.

#bups

Lesserweavil 11:42 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020  

SEDG

Jeff – if you get a chance – SEDG has earnings tonight, I believe.

jsd501 11:40 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020  

DRIP

BTC March 20, 184 calls at .30 cents, sold at 2.42

fuzzballl 11:23 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020  

TSLA IV and the power of vega

Was wondering why my TSLA short put roll was doing so well already even with a down move in the stock. Out of curiosity I took a screen shot of the IV right after the roll this morning. Compared that to one from just a few minutes ago. Interesting! I’ve always read that a massive upside move can increase volatility similar to a big downside move. This is a rare time where you can really see it. 3 hour time difference here…

TSLA IV 2-19 1030

TSLA IV 2-19 1330

fuzzballl 11:07 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
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STMP Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – Absolutely do not trust this one so playing a Jade Lizard way to the downside with breakeven at almost 2x the expected move. No upside risk but definitely need a down move to make much. Perfect number would be down 20…LOL

Sold STMP FEB 21 2020 65.0/80.0/83.0 Jade Lizards @ 3.26

fuzzballl 10:52 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
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SPCE

#ShortPuts – I’ll take it for a one night stand…

Bought to Close SPCE FEB 21 2020 26.0 Puts @ .20 (sold for .92)

Sammy 10:08 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
Tags: earningsSPCE   

#earningsSPCE BTC 21 Feb 27P…

#earningsSPCE
BTC 21 Feb 27P for .30
Was STO yesterday for 1.25
Earnings next Tuesday, I think I’ll skip it due to lack of historical data

jsd501 10:00 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020  

TSLA

STO February 28, 550/1300 strangle for 3.65

Ramie 9:52 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020  

TSLA management

Shaking my head in wonder but I have to do something here. Stock is just about through my 3/20 900/920 bear call spread (it was worse earlier) so I just sold the 3/20 800/780 bull put spread for 5.35 bringing the total collected to 9.35 for a 20 point spread. If it calms down a bit I may be able to get out of this. If not I’ll roll the put spread up and collect as much as I can before letting the stock declare victory.

geewhiz112 9:09 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
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EXAS Put closed / ROKU BUPS Closed and Opened / NUGT Put / AAPL BUPS / ROKU Call

#shortputs
$EXAS BTC 3/20 82.50 put at .40. STO at 3.60 on 1/14. Thank you @jsd501
$NUGT STO 2/28 31 put at .40

#bups
$ROKU BTC 2/21 110/120 BUPS at .50. STO 1/15 at 2.85. Had GTC order at .50
$ROKU STO 3/20 110/120 BUPS at 2.41
$AAPL STO 3/20 300/310 BUPS at 1.80 Thank you @ramie77

#coveredcalls
$ROKU STO 2/21 135 call at 1.15

Sammy 7:53 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020  

AMZN BuPS

STC 28 Feb 1985/1995 for .78
Was STO Feb 7 for 2.66
Just wanted to free up a bit of capitol

fuzzballl 7:34 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
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TSLA

#ShortPuts – Can’t believe I’m doing this. @Iceman is correct it’s Crazytown. Rolling a short put up 125 points and still 100 points outside the expected move. Setting the new strike just above the rapidly rising 50ma…

Rolled TSLA MAR 20 2020 500.0 Put to MAR 20 2020 625.0 Put @ 4.00 credit (7.10 total now)

#crazytown

Lesserweavil 7:20 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020  

TSLA

Rolled $TSLA Feb 28 850 call // Mar 06 950 -$35.00.

Not sure thats going to be enough to get out in front of it.

Had a moment yesterday where I was thinking I’d close the 850’s at roughly even money from yesterdays roll, but I hesitated to avoid notching a day trade.

Lesserweavil 7:16 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020  

ENPH

BTC $ENPH Mar 20 $35 puts @0.15. STO 2/18 @1.8. Partial fill so far.

Planning let my Feb 21 $27.5’s expire Friday, but no reason to let the March ones sit for 30 days.

Jeff 6:52 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
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Z earnings analysis

#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 7, 2019 AC +12.29%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC -15.29%
May 9, 2019 AC +5.04%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%

Avg (+ or -) 11.01%
Bias -1.74%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 53.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 47.10 to 59.90
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 47.61 to 59.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 39.10 to 67.90
Based on UP max only (+26.4%): 67.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:46 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
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STMP earnings analysis

#Earnings $STMP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 7, 2019 AC +12.28%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +27.46%
May 8, 2019 AC -55.75%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -57.76% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 31, 2018 AC -9.74%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.43%
May 3, 2018 AC +3.91%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC +11.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -22.59%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +35.88% Biggest UP
May 3, 2017 AC -0.40%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -1.60%

Avg (+ or -) 20.57%
Bias -4.07%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 93.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 72.11 to 113.89
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 73.87 to 112.13
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (57.8%): 39.28 to 146.72
Based on UP max only (+35.9%): 126.37

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:33 am on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
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HLF closed

#Earnings Bought to close $HLF Feb 21st 37 #ShortPuts for .05. Sold yesterday for .73