BTC…SMH 21 FEB 152/155 BECS @.10….STO 1/3 @.51
Monthly Archives: January 2020
Expiration / Assignment / LABU Calls Closed / T Put Rolled
#optionsexpiration
$EXAS 105 call
$ROKU 135 call
$ROKU 130 call
$LK 41 call
$ZM 73 call
$RACE Long call. BTO at $4.00. Car never started.
$SPX 1 DTE 3210/3190/3305/3325 I think. My account shows it at a loss for the put side. See on Monday.
#assignment
$ZM 73 call Called away
$MRVL 27 put Basis 26.50
$LK 37 put Basis 35.30
#shortcalls
$LABU BTC 2/7 51 calls at 1.10. STO on 1/28 for 2.80.
$T BTC 1/31 37.50 put and STO 2/7 37.50 put at added .30 credit.
ABBV
VXX shorts
#VXXGame First VXX shorts of the year: Sold $VXX Apr 18 calls for 2.00. Against long 25 and 27 calls.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 3rd 3085/3105-3285/3305 condors for 1.25. IV 18.15%, SPX 3218, deltas -.06, .06
(Hopefully) expiring: Jan 31st 3210/3190-3305/3325 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.
FXI
BTO Feb 7 39.5 Put $0.71 Taking a shot at china opening down Monday
XBI
#ShortPuts – Adding one…
Sold XBI MAR 20 2020 79.0 Put @ 1.04
EXAS
#ShortPuts – Last two Febs earnings were the 21st or later so I sold these figuring it would be a week prior to the announcement. Of course now it’s confirmed to be the 11th. Taking a scratch on this one and waiting until the day prior to re-sell. Still holding the 87.50 with a breakeven order in.
Bought to Close EXAS FEB 14 2020 85.0 Put @ 2.05 (sold for 2.05)
UNH
ShortPuts – Thanks @Ramie
Sold UNH MAR 06 2020 245.0 Put @ 2.91
DRIPity rocketing
#ContangoETFs Following a few folks, filled forthwith: March 20th 184 calls for 3.05.
Highs and lows
#VIXIndicator New $VIX highs, new $SPX lows today. SPX now negative on year, lowest levels since January 6th. Highest VIX since Oct 10th.
Econ Calendar for week of 2/3/20
#Jobs report is Friday before the open
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
UVXY sold
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY March 20th 15 calls for 2.14. My first short positions of the year against 25 and 35 long calls bought in recent weeks.
LK
Over 50 million shares have traded today. I BTO the February 14, 20 puts at 1.10 to offset my put positions. If the Muddy Waters is correct, the stock will go to zero and if they are not, the stock will recover and go higher and make up for the put protection.
Short UNH puts
Sold $UNH 3/20 250 puts @ 4.50. Strike price is below the 200 day moving average.
A little long play in AAPL
Sold $AAPL 3/20 300/290 bull put spread @ 2.25
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – First one in June…
Sold UVXY JUN 19 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.02
LABU
#ShortPuts – Gonna give this a couple more weeks before taking the stock…
Rolled LABU JAN 31 2020 48.5 Put to FEB 14 2020 45.0 Put @ .15 credit
SPY
#ShortPuts – Starter position for now…
Sold SPY MAR 20 2020 310.0 Put @ 4.03
DXCM
STO February 21, 240 put at 11.80
FB
Rolled $FB Feb 07 2020 195/205 #BuPS // Feb 20 2020 195/205 @0.50 Credit.
DRIP
#BearCallSpreads – Added one…
Sold DRIP MAR 20 2020 140.0/180.0 Bear Call Spread @ 2.75
AMZN call spread
Sold $AMZN 2/21 2140/2180 bear call spread @ 5.48.
LK Puts Rolled / TNDM Puts / NUGT Strangle / MCD DbCal
#shortputs
$LK BTC 1/31 44 puts and STO 2/21 40 puts at $2 debit but would cost me $4 less if assigned. Hoping the medical complex bests coronavirus soon. Or, someone discovers coffee inhibits the virus.
$TNDM STO 2/21 73.50 put at 2.25, Thank you @jsd501
#shortstrangles
$NUGT STO 2/21 31/36 at 2.78 The 36 call is covered
#doublecalendar #earnings
$MCD Closed three legs of trade guaranteeing .69 per contract profit. Remaining leg is the 2/7 long 212.50 put.
Thank you for the idea @jeffcp66 and for your cogent webinar on subject.
AMZN
BTO Earnings BF Jan 31 1915/1922.50/1930 $0.24
Wow AMZN
Up almost 10% after reporting
PYPL covered calls
Sold $PYPL 3/20 125 calls @ 1.25. Covered by long stock. Strike price is at 23 delta and is above the all time high in the stock so I’m comfortable getting called out of my shares if it gets that high. But it would still have to eat through quite a bit of resistance to get there.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 31st 3190/3210-3305/3325 condors for 1.30, IV 13.99%, SPX 3267, deltas -.08, .06
SPX bearish closed
#SPX1dte Sold to close $SPX Jan 31st 3200/3180 put spreads for .80. Bought Tuesday for 2.65.
HSY closed
#Earnings STC $HSY Jan31/Feb07 150/152.5 #DoubleCalendar for .417. Bought yesterday for .69.
AMZN IB
#Earnings Sold to Open $AMZN Jan 31st 1840/1860/1880 #IronButterfly for 18.50. Narrowed to 20 from my usual 30-wide to reduce risk.
MSFT
STO March 6, 160 puts at 1.21
STO SPY 315 puts at 1.30 for February 7 expiration
LK
STO March 20, 40 calls at 3.02, I will be assigned the $40 puts on the Friday expiration. I still like this for the long term.
DRIP up
#ContangoETFs Sold $DRIP June 19th 150 calls for 12.75.
TSLA
STC Jan 31 490/492.50 call spread #supercharger Paid 1.35 sold for 2.49
FB put spread
Sold $FB 3/20 200/190 bull put spread @ 1.96
#jadelizard After FB’s drop opened…
#jadelizard After FB’s drop opened a JadeLizard 195/212.5/215 March13 for 3.31, can get better now
AMZN earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2019Â AC -1.09%
July 25, 2019Â AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019Â AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019Â AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018Â AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018Â AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018Â AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018Â AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017Â AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017Â AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017Â AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017Â AC -3.54%
Avg (+ or -) 3.77%
Bias 0.13%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 1865.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1798.07 to 1931.93
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1794.61 to 1935.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1618.63 to 2111.37
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 1719.34
Open to requests for other symbols.
TSLA Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Gonna be out all day so not even messing with it…
Bought to Close TSLA FEB 07 2020 480.0 Put @ .41 (sold for 5.35)
HES short puts
I didn’t see this earlier but in going through the activity I see that I was filled on selling $HES 3/20 52.50 puts @ 1.15. With more downside tomorrow am I might add the 50 puts if the premium goes over $1.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX Jan 29th 3195/3215-3320/3340 condors, sold for 1.00 yesterday.
TSLA call butterfly
#Earnings A cheap long shot: Bought to open $TSLA Jan 31st 592.5/600/607.5 #CallButterfly for .281 (avg price).
EWZ strangle
Sold $EWZ 3/20 42/48 strangle @ 1.29 with the stock around 45. Deltas at 24 on both sides.
TNDM
STO Feb. 21, 73.5 puts at 2.20, Stock is breaking out and trading at 77
AAPL call side closed
#Earnings BTC $AAPL Jan 31st 335/337.5 call spreads for .149 (avg price). Sold condors yesterday for .61. I’m letting 290/287.5 put side expire.
#earnings #ironcondor FB Sold Feb….
Sold Feb. 21, 202.50/207.50/240/245 for 1.46, outside the Average moves provided by Jeff (thank you).
#tastytradefollow
TSLA earnings analysis
#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 23, 2019Â AC +17.66% Biggest UP
July 24, 2019Â AC -13.61% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019Â AC -4.26%
Jan. 30, 2019Â AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018Â AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018Â AC +16.18%
May 2, 2018Â AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018Â AC -8.62%
Nov. 1, 2017Â AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017Â AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017Â AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017Â AC -6.40%
Avg (+ or -) 8.35%
Bias -0.11%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 586.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 524.30 to 648.70
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 537.73 to 635.77
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 483.13 to 690.37
Based on DOWN max only (-13.6%): 506.89
Open to requests for other symbols.
TSLA Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – In a different account I’m taking a shot at an extremely bearish Jade Lizard. Playing for a down move of at least half the expected move. Selling a put at an even number and selling a very DITM bear call spread. No upside risk here…
Sold TSLA JAN 31 2020 500/545/555 Jade Lizard @ 10.05
Jeff, what is the typical…
Jeff, what is the typical expected profit % on a DC?
LK
BTC $LK 2/7/2020 30 puts @0.35. Was STO 1/27 @1.05.
Thanks @fuzzballl
HSY earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $HSY reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2019Â BO -2.23%
July 25, 2019Â BO +2.01%
April 25, 2019Â BO +4.58%
Jan. 31, 2019Â BO +0.49%
Oct. 25, 2018Â BO -4.92%
July 26, 2018Â BO +7.35% Biggest UP
April 26, 2018Â BO -0.26%
Feb. 1, 2018Â BO -5.94% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2017Â BO -5.27%
July 26, 2017Â BO -1.34%
April 26, 2017Â BO -0.88%
Feb. 3, 2017Â BO +1.31%
Avg (+ or -) 3.05%
Bias -0.43%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 151.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 145.75 to 157.25
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 146.88 to 156.12
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.4%): 140.36 to 162.64
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 142.50
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings TSLA I’m in a…
#earnings TSLA
I’m in a real mess with TSLA. I have an inverted 300/430 Feb. 21 strangle from Oct. earnings. I’ve taken in $6880 in premium after several rolls. I’m essentially hedging with these two trades.
Sold a Feb. 21, 570 put for 3726 and bought a Feb. 21, 580/595 call spread for 6.35.
I’m open for other ideas.
#earnings #shortstrangles MSFT Sold Feb….
SQ
Closing early…SQ Feb 20 65 Put @.15….STO 1/16 @.96
TSLA
BTC $TSLA 1/31/2020 445/455 #BuPS @0.25. Was STO @2.06 on 1/13.
TSLA Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Going out a week and selling 1.5x the expected move. Hard to believe but this is still above the 50ma…
Sold TSLA FEB 07 2020 480.0 Put @ 5.35
What would I really like to see? Stock down 50 and still book a nice winner here. Immediately sell another one a lot lower in Feb monthly. We can dream can’t we? 🙂 🙂
#earnings #closing #jadelizard SQ This…
#earnings #closing #jadelizard SQ
This goes back to Aug. 1, sold a jade lizard with a short 75 put, SQ was at about 81. It dropped into the 50s in Sept. and Oct.
Bought Feb. 21, 75 put for a gain after many trades over 6 months.
Now what to do with a disastrous TSLA position.
AMD
#ShortPuts – Thanks @Ramie !
Sold AMD FEB 28 2020 42.0 Puts @ .72
MCD closed
#Earnings It’s going in the wrong direction, so gotta close.
Sold to close $MCD Jan31/Feb07 212.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.151 (avg price). Bought yesterday for .839
FB earnings analysis
#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2019Â AC +1.80%
July 24, 2019Â AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019Â AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019Â AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018Â AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018Â AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018Â AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018Â AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017Â AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017Â AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017Â AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017Â AC -1.79%
Avg (+ or -) 5.24%
Bias 1.02%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 220.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 208.85 to 231.15
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 208.47 to 231.53
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 178.29 to 261.71
Based on UP max only (+10.8%): 243.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
MSFT earnings analysis
#Earnings $MSFT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 23, 2019Â AC +1.96%
July 18, 2019Â AC +0.14%
April 24, 2019Â AC +3.31%
Jan. 30, 2019Â AC -1.83% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 24, 2018Â AC +5.84%
July 19, 2018Â AC +1.79%
April 26, 2018Â AC +1.65%
Jan. 31, 2018Â AC -0.78%
Oct. 26, 2017Â AC +6.41% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017Â AC -0.57%
April 27, 2017Â AC +0.27%
Jan. 26, 2017Â AC +2.34%
Avg (+ or -) 2.24%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 166.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 160.28 to 172.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 162.77 to 170.23
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.4%): 155.83 to 177.17
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 163.45
Open to requests for other symbols.
AMD puts
Sold $AMD 3/20 42 puts @ 1.20. Delta 23. Stock down today after earnings, currently 47.15. Strike is another 11% lower, well below the 50 day moving average.
BA Iron Condor
Sold $BA 2/21 290/300/340/350 iron condor for 2.58 with the stock at 322.66. Put and call short strikes are 17 and 21.
LK Liking
#coveredcalls
$LK BTC 3/20 50 call at 2.80. STO on 1/14 for 6.60.
#shortstrangle
$LK STO 1/31 41 call/37 put at 1.73. The call is covered
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 29th 3195/3215-3320/3340 condors for 1.00, IV 14.62%, SPX 3280. Short deltas -.06, .06
LK
#ShortPuts – I’ll take it for a one night stand…
Bought to Close LK FEB 7 2020 30.0 Puts @ .45 (sold for 1.01)
ANET BUPS
#bups
$STO 2/21 212.50/222.50 BUPS at 2.90. Earnings 2/13
MCD earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $MCD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 22, 2019Â BO -5.04% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2019Â BO +0.53%
April 30, 2019Â BO +0.22%
Jan. 30, 2019Â BO -0.21%
Oct. 23, 2018Â BO +6.31% Biggest UP
July 26, 2018Â BO -1.73%
April 30, 2018Â BO +5.77%
Jan. 30, 2018Â BO -2.97%
Oct. 24, 2017Â BO +0.33%
July 25, 2017Â BO +4.75%
April 25, 2017Â BO +5.56%
Jan. 23, 2017Â BO -0.71%
Avg (+ or -) 2.84%
Bias 1.07%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 212.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 205.74 to 218.26
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 205.97 to 218.03
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 198.62 to 225.38
Based on DOWN max only (-5.0%): 201.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
ROKU Calls / IIPR Puts
#coveredcalls
$ROKU STO 1/31 130 calls at 2.16
#shortputs
$IIPR STO 3/20 75 put at 1.80 Hope this is better late than never. Thanks @jsd501
AAPL condor
#Earnings Sold to Open $AAPL Jan 31st 287.5/290-335/337.5 condors for .61. Short strikes outside of previous max moves.
AAPL earnings analysis
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2019Â AC +2.26%
July 30, 2019Â AC +2.04%
April 30, 2019Â AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019Â AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018Â AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018Â AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018Â AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018Â AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017Â AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017Â AC +4.72%
May 2, 2017Â AC -0.30%
Jan. 31, 2017Â AC +6.09%
Avg (+ or -) 4.25%
Bias 2.37%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 312.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 294.74 to 330.26
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 299.22 to 325.78
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 291.16 to 333.84
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 291.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX bearish
#SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX Jan 31st 3200/3180 put spreads for 2.65.
#earnings #closing FFIV Bought 120/145…
ROKU NUGT ZM Calls Rolled / SPX Campaign Expired
#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 1/31 144 calls and STO 1/31 135 calls at added .63 credit
$NUGT BTC 1/31 33.50 calls and STO 2/7 34.50 calls at even
$ZM BTC 1/31 75 calls and STO 1/31 73 calls at added .45 credit
#spx1dte
$SPX 1/27 3195/3215/3330/3350 STO for 1.05. I was away and didn’t know how frightened
I should have been. Thank you @jeffcp66
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator The $VIX closed well over 25% higher than Thursday’s close (2-day closing low) so a Downside Warning took effect. Highest VIX readings since October 10th. Expect further downside in the market in the coming days or weeks.
Options Bistro 