UVXY VIX Partial Closed

#longcalls
$UVXY STC 3/20 35 call at 2.40 BTO at .30 Thank you @jeff

#bucs
$VIX STC 3/18 17/22 BUCS at 4.10 BTO 1/10 at .81 Thank you @fuzzball

#bups
$VIX BTC 3/18 13/15 BUPS at .04 STO 1/10 at .89 Thank you @fuzzball

Tracking the Virus

https://bit.ly/3cedEdn

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 2nd 2600/2625-3100/3125 condors for 2.05. IV: 50%, SPX 2827, deltas: -.05, +.07. Width: 375

That’s the best premium I have gotten in 14 months of this strategy, and the shorts were -10.3% and +5.9% OTM, when the trade filled. But 3 minutes later at the close, that shifted to -11.1% and +4.9%.

SPX 57% Vol

#SPX1dte Monday’s expiration is off-the-charts volatility. I’m going to be able to sell a condor that has short puts at 2570 or lower, or 11.4% OTM, and still get excellent premium. Pulling the trigger before the close.

SPCE

Original trade:

#BullPutSpreads #Earnings – Selling slightly in the money. If I get lucky and the stock goes up it’ll be a nice winner. On the other hand, no matter how far it drops I’ll own stock about 1.70 below my basis which can be more than made up in one week of call selling with the extreme premium on this thing.

Sold SPCE FEB 28 2020 41.0/36.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 3.30

So…closing the long puts for the gains and letting the shorts get exercised. Non taxable account so selling the covered calls early using spreads. Yesterday bought puts to protect the position from anything crazy. Selling aggressively to reduce basis as quickly as possible during this high volatility.

Sold to Close SPCE FEB 28 2020 36.0 Puts @ 12.40
Sold SPCE MAR 6 2020 22.0/52.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 3.70

Bought 7x size SPCE JUL 17 2020 5.0 Puts @ .10

All said and done own the stock at 21.60 basis covered at 22 next week….whew!

SPX 1-dte closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 28th 2850/2830 put spreads for .60. Condors sold yesterday for 1.45.

Not sure if I’ll be selling one tonight, but if I do, I am waiting until a minute before the close, or right after the close. After yesterday’s last-minute dive, I ain’t risking it.

Anyone else having issues with…

Anyone else having issues with the site? Used to once I was logged in, I was in for weeks. In the last few days it’s kicking me out and making me login every time I close the window for some reason.

DAL #shortput

STO DAL Apr17 40 put for 1.83 for an IRA. IVR is 93. If assigned at this level, the div. yield would be 4%.

SPY

#CoveredCalls – Added a few shares overnight, pre-market, and now to get up to 100 so I can play with some calls.

Bought stock gradually at 295.10 average. Selling Monday’s call at breakeven. If it gets taken out I’m fine with that. Should be an easy roll in this environment.

Sold SPY MAR 02 2020 290.0 Call @ 5.30

#coveredcalls GPRO Sold a March…

#coveredcalls GPRO

Sold a March 20, 4 call for .25. GPRO is up today, I have assigned shares from a long time ago.

TQQQ

STO April 17, 45 puts at 2.90

 

STO April 17, 40 puts at 2.05, scaling in small positions.

SPY

About to take out the 100 week moving average? Next one after that is the 200 week at 263.

Amazing…

Futures Looks that the difference…

Futures
Looks that the difference between futures and DOW is quite pronounced, futures are down less then the Dow. Is that an indication for anything?

2% gap open again

Following up to my posts on Monday and Tuesday, the open price of $SPX this morning was -2.08%. So the second time that’s happened this week, and since 2014.

VIX

The VIX is tagging the 3 standard dev. upper BB on its daily chart, which is typically where it needs to be for us to get a market bounce. Also there is an ongoing negative divergence with the 5,3,3 stochastic in 1 hour VIX chart. With this setup, most of the time the market bottom is signaled after the first indication of negative divergence. Rarely, it takes a 2nd or 3rd indication to signal a short term market bottom. Looks like we will need a 3rd wave. I hope the chart snippet of the 1 hour VIX chart will clarify my description.

Screen Shot 2020-02-27 at 7.04.24 PM

Ending reading for T2108

9.35
The lowest since the Q4 2018 selloff, then before that, Feb 2018. Before that you have to go back to Jan 2016 to get readings under 10.

Fun stats for today

Largest Dow point-drop in history: -1,190.95 (-4.42%)
Largest S&P point-drop in history -137.63 (-4.42%) (exact same percentage as Dow)
Worst S&P day since August 2011 (percentage basis)

Fastest correction (down 10%) in entire history of stock market.

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – New position in these strikes…

Sold UVXY JAN 17 2021 30.0/40.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.54

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte . Sold $SPX Feb 28th 2830/2850-3120/3140 condors for 1.45. IV: 41.97%, SPX 3013, deltas: -.06, .06.
Width: 270 points

#putratiospread AAL Sold April 17,…

#putratiospread AAL

Sold April 17, -20/-20/+22 ratio put spread for .83

TQQQ

STO April 17, 55/105 strangle at 4.45

#ironcondor QQQ Sold April 17,…

#ironcondor QQQ

Sold April 17, 175/185/225/235 for 3.10

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – In a little tastyworks account I rarely look at. Set it and forget it until UVXY gets back near lifetime lows.

Sold UVXY JAN 17 2021 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 2.40

Direxion

http://www.direxion.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Direxion-Shareholder-Letter-SEC-Comments-022020.pdf

VIX spread closed

Sold to close $VIX March 17th 17/20 call spread for 2.21. Bought for .52 on Jan 15th. Max possible on this is 3.00, so I’ll take this now, as the risk of going to zero is bigger than the additional .79 I might gain.

TLT call spread

Sold $TLT 3/20 152/157 bear call spread @ 1.36 with TLT at 151.06

VXX long put spread

With the VIX so extended, taking a small position in the other direction. Bought $VXX 3/20 21/17 bear put spread for 1.80 debit.

UVXY adding

#VXXGame Earlier, sold $UVXY Apr 17th 19 call for 4.65. Adding to the position. Number of shorts in VXXGame is still about one-third number of longs.

#shortputs TRTN Sold April 17,…

#shortputs TRTN

Sold April 17, 30 put for .75

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – Forgot I had these in. Filled at the open.

Sold UVXY APR 17 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 2.04 average

SPXL

Taking a small flyer, BTO March 20, 56/60 bull call spread at 2.00 for a small trade.

#contangoetfs #shortcallspreads UVXY Sold April…

#contangoetfs #shortcallspreads UVXY

Sold April 17, 25/35 for 1.68

T2108

Now at 11.34

SPY

#Stock – Instead of selling any more puts in this (or anything else) I’m spreading some dollars out into SPY stock. Buying a few shares every 5 point drop to get into a longer term average position.

Bought SPY stock @ 304.00

UVXY

BTC 25/35 bear call spread at 1.80 and sold at 1.10 so took a small loss.

ROKU

#ShortStrangles – Going inverted on my 120/130 strangle by 5 points but premium received is greater than that so no upside risk.

Rolled ROKU MAR 20 2020 130.0 Call to MAR 20 2020 115.0 Call @ 3.50 credit (10.75 total now)

DRIPped out

Unfortunately I’m going to have to dump out of $DRIP short calls. They are my only positions going against me badly, since I have long options hedging my $UVXY and $VXX shorts.

We are poised now to see the worst week in the market since the financial crisis. Even in best case scenarios with corona virus, it’s likely to scare the markets for a few more weeks. What this will do to $XOP is uncertain. But since yesterday’s close we are going to open 4.4% lower. This means DRIP must open (x3) 13.2% higher. So a .70 drop in XOP means at least a $21.00 rise in DRIP.

Frankly, most of my accounts can’t handle it, and I need the margin to sustain and place other positions. I will try to profit from DRIP’s eventual decline, but I’ll have to wait until it’s actually underway. Fortunately, I didn’t go nuts and only have 3 calls on two accounts, and 2 calls in a third account. I kept my smallest accounts out of it completely.

Other than a couple misadventures over the years, one in $KOLD and a couple in $NUGT, the #ContangoETFs strategy provides a pretty smooth income. But these outlier moves are too damaging, so I’m going to cease the naked calls and use diagonals or spreads, like many of have switched to in #VXXGame and many of you are already doing in DRIP.

Daily AT40 (T2108) is below…

Daily AT40 (T2108) is below 20%

Closing NUGT, SPXpire

#ContangoETFs . I am closing $NUGT at breakeven because I think chances are it will still go higher and I don’t want to get into another $DRIP situation right now.

BTC NUGT June 47 calls for 3.75. Sold for 3.80 on Dec 24.
BTC NUGT Sep 52 calls for 4.75. Sold for 4.80 on Feb 21.

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Feb 26th 2970/2990-3220/3240 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.

AAPL collar

Put on a zero cost collar to protect my long stock in $AAPL from any more potential big shocks:
Bought $AAPL 3/20 250 puts @ 2.03
Sold $AAPL 3/20 317.50 calls @ 2.03
Stock around 291.

The puts are above the 200 day moving average, the calls up at resistance.

DRIP adjustment/adds

I did these a little while ago when DRIP was still under 150. What a crazy move in oil.

Rolled in the money 3/20 125 call up and out to 6/19 155 call (which was out of the money at the time but not anymore) for 1.95 credit.

Sold the new highest strike 3/20 220 call @ 5.00. Obviously you can do quite a bit better now. I have an offer in for another contract above where it’s trading now.

#contangoetfs

UNH

#ShortPuts – Selling the week prior to earnings and down near 2 year lows and just outside the expected move.

Sold UNH APR 03 2020 230.0 Put @ 3.60

A TRADE:

SPCE STO 2/28/20 31.0 PUTS @1.02 Will take the stock if put to.

TQQQ

STO April 3, 55/105 strangle at 3.70

#earnings SQ Sold March 20,…

#earnings SQ

Sold March 20, 65/95 strangle for 1.62.
Thanks for the data Jeff

TRADES: Not doing too much.

SPCE BTO STOCK @32.45 & 33.25 50 SHARES EACH
SPCE STO 2/28/20 35.5 CALL @1.10

AMZN BuPS

STO 6 Mar 1950/1945P for 1.24

#earnings #closing CRM Yesterday sold…

#earnings #closing CRM SPCE

CRM Yesterday sold a March 20, 160/210 strangle for 2.30, bought today for 1.58.
SPCE sold a ratio spread for .88, looked good this morning, not so good this afternoon, pulled the plug early and bought for .70.

Thanks for the data Jeff.

HD

BTO Mar 20 237.5/240 Calls $1.22 #supercharger

#fallingknife #putratiospread VIAC Working off…

#fallingknife #putratiospread VIAC #shortputs MRO

Working off of Iceman’s list, VIAC sold April 17, -24/-24/+25 ratio spread for .50
MRO sold March 6, 8.50 put for .18

SQ earnings analysis

#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 6, 2019 AC +5.00%
Aug. 1, 2019 AC -14.05% Biggest DOWN
May 1, 2019 AC -7.98%
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +2.42%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -9.02%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC +1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC +0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC +8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +14.02% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 6.63%
Bias 0.67%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 78.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.10 to 84.90
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 72.83 to 83.17
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 67.04 to 88.96
Based on UP max only (+14.0%): 88.94

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings SPCE BTC SPCE BuPS…

#earnings
SPCE
BTC SPCE BuPS for 1.65
Was STO yesterday for 1.35

#earningsTGT BuPS 3 Mar 110/105…

#earningsTGT BuPS
3 Mar 110/105 for 1.66
TGT reports Mar 3

Back to back 3%+

First time since November 2008 that SPX dropped more than 3% two days in a row.

Gap Opens

Following up to my Post yesterday, here is a chart of all SPX gap opens that were plus or minus 2% or greater since 1/1/2000. Click the chart for a larger view.

On the left is 1/3/2000, and on the right is yesterday, 2/24/20. The cluster near the middle is the 2008 crash. As you can see, a very long gap between 2014 and now.

Screen Shot 2020-02-25 at 2.25.01 PM

CAT

STC Mar 13 137/135 Puts BePS $1.50 bought 2-12-20 for .90

HD

BTO Mar 20 237.5/240.00 Calls $1.22

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Feb 26th 2970/2990-3220/3240 condors for 1.30. IV: 33.19%, SPX 3140, deltas -.06, +.07.

SPY

STC SPY Feb 28 326/320 Beps $5.00 bought 2-4-20 $1.28 as a hedge profit 368.00 per

DRIP

#ShortCalls #BearCallSpreads – Only have one contract but it’s really annoying so rolling to ITM with defined risk.

Rolled 1 DRIP JUN 19 2020 160.0 Call to 2 DRIP SEP 18 2020 100.0/150.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 3.75 credit

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – A little nearer term. Staying small in case a roll is needed…

Sold UVXY APR 15 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.80

SPY

#ShortPuts – Going out and down for the next sale…

Sold SPY JUN 19 2020 290.0 Put @ 7.05

#shortcallspreads DRIP Joining the DRIPster…

#shortcallspreads DRIP

Joining the DRIPster HIPsters, sold a June 175/185 call spread for 2.08.

Thanks guys

#earnings #closing DE Feb. 20…

#earnings #closing DE

Feb. 20 sold a 150/155/175/180 #ironcondor for 1.76. DE went as high as 182 before coming back down the last 2 days. I bought the IC today for 1.67.

ROKU

Rolled $ROKU Mar-6-2020 110/120 #BuPS // Mar-13 @0.00.

#KeepDemDoggiesRollin

TC2000 indicator update

For those of you that follow these:
T2108 (% stocks above their 40 day moving average): 26.56
T2122 (4 wk new high/new low ratio): 1.85

UVXY adding

#VXXGame Sold $UVXY April 17th 19 calls for 2.75. Keeping more longs than shorts, but they are in an earlier expiration.

DRIP adding

Sold $DRIP 3/20 186 call @ 7.00. Highest strike in March.

DRIPping upward

#ContangoETFs Sold $DRIP March 20th 186 calls for 6.35

#earnings #putratiospread SPCE Sold March…

#earnings #putratiospread SPCE

Sold March 20, -26/-26/+30 ratio spread for .88

TQQQ

STO April 60 puts at 1.95

TQQQ

#ShortPuts – Sold TQQQ APR 17 2020 65.0 Put @ 2.40

TQQQ Put

STO 28 Feb 90P for 2.12

NUGT Put Rolled

#shortputs
BTC 2/28 31 put and STO 3/20 3 put at added 1.22 credit

ROKU

STO March 20, 150 calls at .66