#earnings #shortstrangles UAL Sold Feb….

#earnings #shortstrangles UAL

Sold Feb. 21 75/95 strangle for 1.00

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 22nd 3265/3285-3345/3365 condors for .85, IV 8.61%, SPX 3322

UAL earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $UAL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 15, 2019 AC +2.07%
July 16, 2019 AC +0.91%
April 16, 2019 AC +4.77%
Jan. 15, 2019 AC +6.35%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.95%
July 17, 2018 AC +8.78%
April 17, 2018 AC +4.81%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC -11.44%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -12.07%
July 18, 2017 AC -5.90%
April 17, 2017 AC -4.26%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC +0.35%

Avg (+ or -) 5.64%
Bias 0.03%, no bias bias on earnings.

With stock at 85.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 80.38 to 89.62
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 80.21 to 89.79
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 74.74 to 95.26
Based on UP max only (+8.8%): 92.46

***NOTE: 5-day maxes are -14.63% and +11.42%

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

LABU

#ShortPuts – Adding one replacing the one closed last week.

Sold LABU FEB 21 2020 48.0 Put @ 1.92

AVGO

#ShortPuts – More risk off in case I get stuck with NFLX…

Bought to Close AVGO JAN 31 2020 292.5 Put @ .75 (sold for 3.10)

#bups

BA Halted

For once my sense of timing was halfway decent booking my $18.60 last week. Coors Light will taste good on that one.

NFLX Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Well…here we go. Mixed results over the years with this one on earnings. Going pretty aggressive selling at the 50ma and slightly inside the expected move. Haven’t decided yet if I’ll add the call side to set up the Jade Lizard.

Sold NFLX JAN 24 2020 315.0 Put @ 5.11

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – Nicely profitable stops set on all Feb positions so adding a little in March. Still short some puts and long VIX so would welcome these taking some heat.

Sold UVXY MAR 20 2020 15.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .70

#earnings #shortstrangles IBM Sold Feb….

#earnings #shortstrangles IBM #ironcondor NFLX

IBM Sold Feb. 21, 127/149 for 1.26
NFLX sold Feb. 21, 280/290/380/390 for 2.27

Thanks for the data Jeff

GUSH

BTC Feb. 21, 45 calls at .10 cents.

SPX risk off

#SPX1dte Earlier, BTC $SPX Jan 21st 3290 puts for .05. Condors sold Friday for 1.00.

$SPX Call

#longcalls
$SPX BTO 1/21 3320 call at 4.80 and STC at 7.00. Sometimes staying home pays off.

LK

STO January 31, 40 put at .75

IBM earnings analysis

#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 16, 2019 AC -5.52%
July 17, 2019 AC +4.58%
April 16, 2019 AC -4.15%
Jan. 22, 2019 AC +8.46%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -7.62% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +8.86% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.24%

Avg (+ or -) 5.44%
Bias -0.88%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 138.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.81 to 144.19
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 130.49 to 145.51
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.9%): 125.77 to 150.23
Based on DOWN max only (-7.6%): 127.48

***NOTE: 5-day maxes are -11.04% and +10.60%

Open to requests for other symbols.

WYNN

#ShortPuts – Whiz just reminded us about the virus breaking out in China. I saw that over the weekend and completely forgot about it. Bailing on the earlier WYNN position for beer money and watching from the sidelines for awhile.

Bought to Close WYNN JAN 31 2020 140.0 Put @ 2.57 (sold for 3.00)

MRVL Put / NEO Call

#shortputs
$MRVL STO 1/24 28.5 put at .60

#coveredcalls
$NEO STO 2/21 35 at .90

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 16, 2019 AC +2.46%
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54% Biggest UP
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%

Avg (+ or -) 5.78%
Bias 1.61%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 337.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 311.53 to 363.47
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 318.01 to 356.99
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 291.80 to 383.20
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 302.84

***NOTE: 5-day maxes are -14.30% and +20.66%

Open to requests for other symbols.

SOXL TSLA

#ShortPuts – These are green quickly so booking now. Might take a shot at NFLX earnings now…

Bought to Close SOXL FEB 21 2020 200.0 Put @ 1.50 (sold for 5.50)

Bought to Close TSLA JAN 24 2020 480.0 Put @ .50 (sold for 7.35)

WYNN

#ShortPuts and possibly #Earnings – Earnings are probably in the week of this sale but just in case WYNN pulls a “WYNN” and changes the date at the last second I’m selling an aggressive starter to get back in this thing…

Sold WYNN JAN 31 2020 140.0 Put @ 3.00

ROKU Call / STNE Put

#coveredcalls
$ROKU STO 1/24 138 call at 1.95

#shortputs
$STNE STO 1/24 41.50 put at .60