#earnings #shortstrangles UAL Sold Feb….

#earnings #shortstrangles UAL

Sold Feb. 21 75/95 strangle for 1.00

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 22nd 3265/3285-3345/3365 condors for .85, IV 8.61%, SPX 3322

UAL earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $UAL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 15, 2019 AC +2.07%
July 16, 2019 AC +0.91%
April 16, 2019 AC +4.77%
Jan. 15, 2019 AC +6.35%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.95%
July 17, 2018 AC +8.78%
April 17, 2018 AC +4.81%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC -11.44%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -12.07%
July 18, 2017 AC -5.90%
April 17, 2017 AC -4.26%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC +0.35%

Avg (+ or -) 5.64%
Bias 0.03%, no bias bias on earnings.

With stock at 85.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 80.38 to 89.62
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 80.21 to 89.79
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 74.74 to 95.26
Based on UP max only (+8.8%): 92.46

***NOTE: 5-day maxes are -14.63% and +11.42%

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

LABU

#ShortPuts – Adding one replacing the one closed last week.

Sold LABU FEB 21 2020 48.0 Put @ 1.92

AVGO

#ShortPuts – More risk off in case I get stuck with NFLX…

Bought to Close AVGO JAN 31 2020 292.5 Put @ .75 (sold for 3.10)

#bups

BA Halted

For once my sense of timing was halfway decent booking my $18.60 last week. Coors Light will taste good on that one.

NFLX Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Well…here we go. Mixed results over the years with this one on earnings. Going pretty aggressive selling at the 50ma and slightly inside the expected move. Haven’t decided yet if I’ll add the call side to set up the Jade Lizard.

Sold NFLX JAN 24 2020 315.0 Put @ 5.11