SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 15th 3220/3240-3305/3325 condors for 1.00, IV 9.28%, SPX 3281

#earnings #shortstrangles GS Sold Feb….

#earnings #shortstrangles GS

Sold Feb. 21 220/270 strangle for 2.01. This is outside the 1 day max moves.

Thanks for the data Jeff.

#earnings #closing DAL Bought Feb….

#earnings #closing DAL

Bought Feb. 21 straddle for 3.79. sold yesterday for 4.05.

EXAS

#ShortPuts – Missed this yesterday while out all day helping a friend move. Taking a starter now prior to earnings.

Sold EXAS FEB 14 2020 87.5 Put @ 2.20

ALB

STO February 21, 75 put at 2.10, They mine lithium  for batteries.

Risky Risk/Reversal

#SPX1dte Okay, so I’m taking a shot that this weakness it temporary and bullish trend will continue this week.

Sold to open $SPX Jan 17th 3250/3225 put spreads for 1.90.
Bought to open $SPX Jan 17th 3315/3330 call spreads for 1.60.

I’m not going to look for my call spread to become ITM… just any modest increase in price will be good enough to close it.

#RiskReversal

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – Adding a couple more…

Sold UVXY FEB 21 2020 13.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .72

SPX closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Jan 17th 3320/3345 call spreads for 2.25. Paid 2.35 for the condor yesterday.

I did this literally 30 seconds before the huge spike down. Unbelievable!

My plan was to allow put side to expire, add a closer put spread and BUY a call spread. I may still do this, but have to watch for awhile to see what happens. Market is bullish, and I truly don’t understand how it has reacted or will react to the volatile trade situation. No one does.

News flash

CHINA TARIFFS TO STAY UNTIL AFTER U.S. ELECTION DESPITE DEAL

LK Put Closed

#shortputs
$LK BTC 1/17 36 put at .05. STO at 1.35 on 1/8

BOOT

STO Feb 21, 40 put at 1.10

LABU Covered Call Rolled

#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 1/17 58 call and STO 1/17 55 call at $1 added credit. Be pleased if called away. Stock at 54.56.

LK TNA

#ShortPuts – Closing and opening…

LK:
Bought to Close LK FEB 7 2020 27.5 Puts @ .10 (sold for 1.10)

TNA: New starter position…
Sold TNA FEB 07 2020 67.5 Puts @ 1.32

LK

BTC Feb. 7, 27.5 puts at .10, sold at 1.10

ROKU Covered Call / MRVL EXAS LK GSX T Puts / EXAS Leap BUCS / Roll ZM ROKU Calls

#coveredcalls
$ROKU STO 1/17 137 call at 2.50

#shortputs
$MRVL STO 1/31 27 put at .50
$EXAS STO 3/20 82.50 put at 3.60. Thank you @jsd501
$LK STO 1/17 44.50 put at 1.10
$GSX STO 2/21 25 put at 3.00
$T STO 1/31 37.5 put at .55

#leaps #bucs
$EXAS BTO 90/100 BUCS at 4.80.

#coveredcalls
$ZM BTC 1/17 70 call and STO 1/31 75 call at 2.20 debit. Stock at 73.30
$ROKU BTC 1/17 152.50 call and STO 1/24 150 call at .98 added credit. Stock at 132.13

PNC earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $PNC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 16, 2019 BO -0.28%
July 17, 2019 BO +0.66%
April 12, 2019 BO +3.09% Biggest UP
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +0.07%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -5.58% Biggest DOWN
July 13, 2018 BO +0.23%
April 13, 2018 BO -4.11%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +0.23%
Oct. 13, 2017 BO -1.12%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.11%
April 13, 2017 BO -0.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.72%

Avg (+ or -) 1.36%
Bias -0.53%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 160.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 155.41 to 164.59
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 157.82 to 162.18
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 151.07 to 168.93
Based on UP max only (+3.1%): 164.94

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

TSLA

STC all my February 21 bull call spreads at 13.70, bought for 9.83

GS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 15, 2019 BO +0.31%
July 16, 2019 BO +1.86%
April 15, 2019 BO -3.81%
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%

Avg (+ or -) 2.73%
Bias -0.27%, small negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 245.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 236.02 to 253.98
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 238.32 to 251.68
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 221.63 to 268.37
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 233.46

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings #rolling JPM Rolled Feb….

#earnings #rolling JPM

Rolled Feb. 21, 130 put to 135 for .66, now have 135/140 strangle with JPM at 140.

LULU

BTC $LULU Jan 24 215/225 #BuPS @0.10. Was STO Jan 09 @1.25

TSLA

STC January 17, 465/485 bull call spread for 19.00, Bought at 11.70

Upside Warning reinstated

#VIXindicator We kicked off a “minor” Upside Warning last night, based on the small VIX spike from Jan 3 and 6. These occur when a volatility spike cancels a previous UpW but no Downside Warning comes. In the past, they often signal continued momentum higher.