HES short puts

I didn’t see this earlier but in going through the activity I see that I was filled on selling $HES 3/20 52.50 puts @ 1.15. With more downside tomorrow am I might add the 50 puts if the premium goes over $1.

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX Jan 29th 3195/3215-3320/3340 condors, sold for 1.00 yesterday.

TSLA call butterfly

#Earnings A cheap long shot: Bought to open $TSLA Jan 31st 592.5/600/607.5 #CallButterfly for .281 (avg price).

EWZ strangle

Sold $EWZ 3/20 42/48 strangle @ 1.29 with the stock around 45. Deltas at 24 on both sides.

TNDM

STO Feb. 21, 73.5 puts at 2.20, Stock is breaking out and trading at 77

AAPL call side closed

#Earnings BTC $AAPL Jan 31st 335/337.5 call spreads for .149 (avg price). Sold condors yesterday for .61. I’m letting 290/287.5 put side expire.

#earnings #ironcondor FB Sold Feb….

#earnings #ironcondor FB

Sold Feb. 21, 202.50/207.50/240/245 for 1.46, outside the Average moves provided by Jeff (thank you).
#tastytradefollow

TSLA earnings analysis

#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 23, 2019 AC +17.66% Biggest UP
July 24, 2019 AC -13.61% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -4.26%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18%
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%

Avg (+ or -) 8.35%
Bias -0.11%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 586.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 524.30 to 648.70
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 537.73 to 635.77
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 483.13 to 690.37
Based on DOWN max only (-13.6%): 506.89

Open to requests for other symbols.

TSLA Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – In a different account I’m taking a shot at an extremely bearish Jade Lizard. Playing for a down move of at least half the expected move. Selling a put at an even number and selling a very DITM bear call spread. No upside risk here…

Sold TSLA JAN 31 2020 500/545/555 Jade Lizard @ 10.05

Jeff, what is the typical…

Jeff, what is the typical expected profit % on a DC?

#doublecalendar

LK

BTC $LK 2/7/2020 30 puts @0.35. Was STO 1/27 @1.05.

Thanks @fuzzballl

HSY earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $HSY reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 24, 2019 BO -2.23%
July 25, 2019 BO +2.01%
April 25, 2019 BO +4.58%
Jan. 31, 2019 BO +0.49%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -4.92%
July 26, 2018 BO +7.35% Biggest UP
April 26, 2018 BO -0.26%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.94% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -5.27%
July 26, 2017 BO -1.34%
April 26, 2017 BO -0.88%
Feb. 3, 2017 BO +1.31%

Avg (+ or -) 3.05%
Bias -0.43%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 151.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 145.75 to 157.25
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 146.88 to 156.12
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.4%): 140.36 to 162.64
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 142.50

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

#earnings TSLA I’m in a…

#earnings TSLA

I’m in a real mess with TSLA. I have an inverted 300/430 Feb. 21 strangle from Oct. earnings. I’ve taken in $6880 in premium after several rolls. I’m essentially hedging with these two trades.
Sold a Feb. 21, 570 put for 3726 and bought a Feb. 21, 580/595 call spread for 6.35.
I’m open for other ideas.

#earnings #shortstrangles MSFT Sold Feb….

#earnings #shortstrangles MSFT

Sold Feb. 21, 155/180 for 1.32.

Thanks for the data Jeff

SQ

Closing early…SQ Feb 20 65 Put @.15….STO 1/16 @.96

#shortputs

TSLA

BTC $TSLA 1/31/2020 445/455 #BuPS @0.25. Was STO @2.06 on 1/13.

TSLA Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Going out a week and selling 1.5x the expected move. Hard to believe but this is still above the 50ma…

Sold TSLA FEB 07 2020 480.0 Put @ 5.35

What would I really like to see? Stock down 50 and still book a nice winner here. Immediately sell another one a lot lower in Feb monthly. We can dream can’t we? 🙂 🙂

#earnings #closing #jadelizard SQ This…

#earnings #closing #jadelizard SQ

This goes back to Aug. 1, sold a jade lizard with a short 75 put, SQ was at about 81. It dropped into the 50s in Sept. and Oct.
Bought Feb. 21, 75 put for a gain after many trades over 6 months.
Now what to do with a disastrous TSLA position.

AMD

#ShortPuts – Thanks @Ramie !

Sold AMD FEB 28 2020 42.0 Puts @ .72

MCD closed

#Earnings It’s going in the wrong direction, so gotta close.

Sold to close $MCD Jan31/Feb07 212.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.151 (avg price). Bought yesterday for .839

FB earnings analysis

#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.80%
July 24, 2019 AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%

Avg (+ or -) 5.24%
Bias 1.02%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 220.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 208.85 to 231.15
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 208.47 to 231.53
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 178.29 to 261.71
Based on UP max only (+10.8%): 243.78

Open to requests for other symbols.

#bups

MSFT earnings analysis

#Earnings $MSFT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 23, 2019 AC +1.96%
July 18, 2019 AC +0.14%
April 24, 2019 AC +3.31%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.83% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +5.84%
July 19, 2018 AC +1.79%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.65%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -0.78%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +6.41% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC -0.57%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.27%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +2.34%

Avg (+ or -) 2.24%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 166.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 160.28 to 172.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 162.77 to 170.23
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.4%): 155.83 to 177.17
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 163.45

Open to requests for other symbols.

AMD puts

Sold $AMD 3/20 42 puts @ 1.20. Delta 23. Stock down today after earnings, currently 47.15. Strike is another 11% lower, well below the 50 day moving average.

BA Iron Condor

Sold $BA 2/21 290/300/340/350 iron condor for 2.58 with the stock at 322.66. Put and call short strikes are 17 and 21.