ROKU NUGT ZM Calls Rolled / SPX Campaign Expired

#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 1/31 144 calls and STO 1/31 135 calls at added .63 credit
$NUGT BTC 1/31 33.50 calls and STO 2/7 34.50 calls at even
$ZM BTC 1/31 75 calls and STO 1/31 73 calls at added .45 credit

#spx1dte
$SPX 1/27 3195/3215/3330/3350 STO for 1.05. I was away and didn’t know how frightened
I should have been. Thank you @jeffcp66

Downside Warning in effect

#VIXindicator The $VIX closed well over 25% higher than Thursday’s close (2-day closing low) so a Downside Warning took effect. Highest VIX readings since October 10th. Expect further downside in the market in the coming days or weeks.

UVXY hedges

#VXXGame Bought $UVXY March 20th 35 calls for .31. Adding more longs to sell against. Already sold March 25 calls last week, as well as VXX March 25 calls.

I haven’t started selling yet. I’m going to wait for higher volatility…. that may mean I miss out on this current pop, but that’s okay. I’d prefer to wait and possibly miss out, than sell in the early days of a bigger correction.

LK

#ShortPuts – I’ll join in. This should be before earnings by a week or two but I’m not sure…

Sold LK FEB 7 2020 30.0 Puts @ 1.01

TRADES:

LK STO 1/31/20 35.0 PUTS @1.40
LK STO 1/31/20 39.5 CALLS @1.95
LK STO 1/31/20 40.0 CALLS @1.55
LK STO 1/31/20 40.5 CALLS @1.35
LK ST0 2/7/20 43.0 CALLS @1.50
LK BTC 1/31/20 47.5 CALLS @.05
LK STO 1/31/20 30.5 PUTS @.55
GDX STC STOCK 229.23

Question about stop orders for…

Question about stop orders for long stock positions.

Do you use any stop orders for long stock positions?
Some recommend 5-10% below purchase price.
I tend to hold for too long…

#suecollar

LK STO LK Feb21’20 23…

LK
STO LK Feb21’20 23 PUT @1.05

MMM earnings analysis

#Earnings $MMM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 24, 2019 BO -4.07%
July 25, 2019 BO -0.71%
April 25, 2019 BO -12.94% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 29, 2019 BO +1.94%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO -4.37%
July 24, 2018 BO +0.92%
April 24, 2018 BO -6.83%
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +1.88%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO +5.91% Biggest UP
July 25, 2017 BO -5.05%
April 25, 2017 BO +0.46%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.42%

Avg (+ or -) 3.88%
Bias -2.02%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 169.30 to 185.70
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 170.62 to 184.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 154.53 to 200.46
Based on UP max only (+5.9%): 187.99

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings #shortstrangles FFIV Sold Feb….

#earnings #shortstrangles FFIV

Sold Feb. 21, 120/145 strangle for 2.36.

Thanks for the data Jeff

LULU

STO $LULU Feb 21 2020 212.5/222.5 #BuPS @1.4. Stock @235, 25 days to expire, Short option 22 delta, earnings 3/25.

WHR earnings analysis

#Earnings $WHR reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 22, 2019 AC +0.95%
July 22, 2019 BO +0.10%
April 22, 2019 AC +0.40%
Jan. 28, 2019 AC +9.66% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.78%
July 23, 2018 AC -14.52% Biggest DOWN
April 23, 2018 AC +3.75%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC +2.30%
Oct. 23, 2017 AC -10.54%
July 26, 2017 AC -6.28%
April 25, 2017 BO +3.51%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -8.54%

Avg (+ or -) 5.61%
Bias -1.04%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 147.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 138.29 to 155.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 138.75 to 155.25
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.5%): 125.66 to 168.34
Based on UP max only (+9.7%): 161.20

Open to requests for other symbols.

FFIV earnings analysis

#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 23, 2019 AC +5.50%
July 24, 2019 AC -0.65%
April 24, 2019 AC -1.08%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -2.22%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10% Biggest UP
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 4.12%
Bias -1.20%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 131.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 123.15 to 138.85
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 125.60 to 136.40
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.3%): 120.19 to 141.81
Based on UP max only (+6.1%): 138.99

Open to requests for other symbols.

SOXL TQQQ UDOW

#ShortPuts – Staying small. Starters in TQQQ and SOXL. Adding one to UDOW.

Sold TQQQ FEB 28 2020 80.0 Put @ 2.31
Sold SOXL FEB 21 2020 190.0 Put @ 2.50
Sold UDOW MAR 20 2020 100.0 Put @ 2.48

OLED

STO March 20, 175 put at 6.90, stock is at 195

DRIP

#BearCallSpreads – Added one…

Sold DRIP MAR 20 2020 140.0/180.0 Bear Call Spread @ 2.35

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – Taking some risk off with pretty good profits. Still short a few at lower strikes in Feb and a sizable position in March.

Bought to Close UVXY FEB 21 2020 18.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .44 (sold for .86)
Bought to Close UVXY FEB 21 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .28 (sold for .80)

SEDG

STO March 20, 90 puts at 4.44, stock at 102.73

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jan 27th 3215/3195 put spreads for 1.95. Condors sold for 1.15 on Friday.