Well, if this does not turn into more of a correction, I will replace the Downside Warning with Iceman’s BTFD billboard. April was the last time we actually had some follow through on a downside warning, and it was only minor. Otherwise they have only meant buy the dip.
I can also say that the ITM call-spread rolling that worked beautifully before is NOT working for me this time. I experienced the usual drawdown, but have been stuck now with too many spreads close to the money and getting whipsawed on days like today. I am having to cease with selling rolls on some spreads I am closing, mainly because I need to get back to the standard strategy of 10-12 delta OTM spreads.
For now, I’m watching to see how the day ends. My main goal is to get call spreads closed while we’re down, as the inevitable move will be higher. However, we can’t shut the door on a correction before year’s end. I don’t know how much the delay of tax cuts will effect the market, but it is my opinion that nothing will be passed before Christmas. That could mean a deeper correction, but more likely a BTFD.