#VIXIndicator Since 2000, what happened today has happened 8 times previously: a Downside Warning going into effect after it had been canceled, with no Upside Warning in between. On half of those occasions, the subsequent drop in the SPX was lower than the first warning, and in the other half, it was roughly the same. So in other words, every occurrence resulted in at least a test of the lows, and half of those times we went significantly lower.
@fibwizard you on line?
Are you using tick or range charts currently? I am finding the range charts are responding too slowly now with the increased volatility.
Any suggestions for tick settings for say /es, /ym. /nq, /cl, /gc if you are trading those?
Booking profits already on the call side of the /ES 37DTE 2480/2900 strangle. Sold the call side for 3.50, BTC after hours (it trades 23/5) for 2.05. 42% profit in few hours so I will book it.
Will leave the put side on and if we get a bounce sell calls again after runup. If we roll down will short 2 futures which would offset the loss all the way down to 2300 or lower, actually the p/l graph at that point shows a 13k profit. The cool thing with futures is you do not always need the same # of contracts as options because of the delta weighting. A future contract carries a hard delta of +-50 and these options are so far OTM you do not need 1:1 ratio for covering like a stock ticker.
#Fuzzy – Had a fill while I was out today, BTC UPS Mar02’18 109 calls for 0.05, sold for 0.43. My core position UPS Mar29’18 108/108/106 Fuzzy is currently unhedged.
#SyntheticStock #LongCalls -With 5 wide strikes out in Jan 2019 I just decided to buy the calls outright instead of going synthetic. A little more out of pocket up front but a much lower max loss due to the “5 wide”. This replaces my MU position..
Bought to Open CRUS JAN 18 2019 45.0 Calls @ 6.90
46 week to go so 15 cents a week required….didn’t get a chance to sell the first hedge yet.
#VIXIndicator A rare occurrence so soon after a cancelation.
Strolling through my watchlists looking for anything that’s at an extreme that looks like a good entry for synthetic. Not considering anymore drug/biotech/energy since I’m in those already. So far I’m seeing these:
ALK (already in LUV)
AMBA (earnings tomorrow)
CRUS (liking it)
DIS (on more weakness)
EWW (getting close)
FXI (getting close)
IWM (on more weakness)
NTES (on more weakness)
OLED (once it forms a base)
REGN (in it already but sure seems ready to reverse)
SHAK (decent premium on cheap stock)
TBT (go short)
TLT (go long) saw UOA (bullish) in TLT today…not sure what exactly
#SyntheticStock – This was a poorly managed trade from the beginning. I’ve got to learn more patience with these things. I entered the trade on Jan 26th and the stock went down almost immediately. Sold some nice hedges but got streamrolled in the massive whipsaw. This could’ve been a 5k winner but the weekly hedge sale has blocked the entire profit from the reversal point. Instead of holding it and trying to roll I’m taking it off for a scratch after commissions. I’ve got to get better at this or quit picking stocks that explode higher 🙂 🙂 .
Sold to Close MU JUL 20 2018 43/43/41 Synthetic
Bought to Close MU MAR 29 2018 44.0 Calls
All said and done…even after commissions but feels like a loser!
Rolled GM 42.5 put this week to next for 0.33 credit. Cost basis now 39.30 or so may take assignment next week and grab the dividend.
#SyntheticStock – Another dog….selling the weekly hedge below the core so only going for about what’s needed to get to breakeven. Core is out in July and I currently need 37 cents per week to cover max loss.
Bought to Close CELG MAR 2 2018 97.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .68)
Sold CELG MAR 9 2018 92.0 Calls @ .55
Finally learned enough (not sure smart would be the correct adjective) to keep some cash on the side for when volatility is higher.
STO the /ES 37 DTE 2480/2900 strangle for 12. Only 4 contracts, the account would handle 8 but see I learned enough to keep some extra on the side to go short or long the future if needed for adjustments or be able to add another week later. Theta is 125 a day on this so hope to hold it for 10 days then roll to next cycle or close for 35-50% profit.
From now on I am taking profits early if they are available. Anything 25-75% would be enough.
Replacing the April puts I closed earlier with June puts at lower strikes.
Sold $DISH Jun 15 37.50 puts @ 1.30.
Delta 22. Strike below the Feb 2016 low. You’d have to go back to mid 2013 to see 37.50.
BTO 21 SEP 18 46/46/44 CALL/PUT/PUT 5.97 with stock at 45.98. Need 0.28 per week to cover so STO 9 MAR 48 CALL 0.67 #syntheticstock
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Mar 9th 2775/2800 call spreads for 6.25.
#Earnings Just like last May, when this stock dipped over 10% on day 1, it is retracing higher on day 2.
BTC $AZO March 2nd 660 put for 1.00. Sold in 660/790 strangles for 4.225 (avg price) on Monday. I’m putting an order in to close the the other put for .50. Calls I will allow to expire.
#Fuzzy – BTC XBI Mar02’18 95 calls for 0.04, sold for 0.48. Waiting to sell calls for next week. My core position is XBI Jun’18 +91calls/-91puts/+88puts, bought for 4.50. So far have booked 1.26 in net premium on 10 contracts.
#SyntheticStock – Rolling the weekly hedge out and up…if the stock continues up to where the overall position is zero deltas I’ll probably book it and look to re-enter on a pullback.
Rolled BIDU MAR 2 2018 247.5 Calls to MAR 16 2018 252.5 Calls @ .60 credit
#SPXcampaign With a second day of weakness I’m looking at call spreads now (after spending Friday and Monday stopping several). I’m offsetting put spreads at the same expiry.
Sold $SPX March 2nd 2775/2800 call spreads for 3.30. Expire this Friday.
#ShortPuts -Decided I’ve got enough going on so bailing on these with lunch money…
Bought to Close WMT APR 20 2018 85.0 Puts @ .77 (sold for .84)
#ShortCalls – I’m booking these and following @Ramie and selling some nearer term UVXY call spreads. I’ll be applying all of the profits to the purchase price of my LEAP SVXY calls until they are zero risk and then after that applying to SVXY losses. This looks like a much better way of cost reduction on the long SVXY calls vs selling calls against them since premium is so weak.
Bought to Close UVXY APR 20 2018 59.0 Call @ .22 (sold for 2.81)
Bought to Close UVXY JUN 15 2018 60.0 Call @ .58 (sold for 3.50)
I don’t like the way this is trading. The downtrend is continuing and with March expiration still more than 2 weeks off my strikes don’t look safe. I’m taking these positions off for a profit while I still can.
Bought to close:
$DISH Mar 16 42.50 puts @ 1.05. Sold for 1.50 on 10/12 and 1.95 on 10/13.
$DISH Mar 16 40.00 puts @ .30. Sold for 1.30 on 10/13.
#SyntheticStock – Earnings still two weeks away so selling the week before (hopefully at a safe strike)…
Bought to Close CTRP MAR 2 2018 48.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .75)
Sold CTRP MAR 9 2018 48.0 Calls @ .26
Looks like the morning pop may be slowing. Sold $BKNG Apr 6 (weekly) 2220/2240 bear call spread for 2.55 credit. Strike at 17 delta, about 144 points higher than the current price of the stock (2076.02). I would have sold the spread in the April monthly but there weren’t strikes at 20 point intervals at that level. IVR is 74. I will look to take this off for 50% if the stock pulls back/trades flat and/or IV contracts.
#SyntheticStock – This is a weekly call sale that I had rolled down for a 1.24 credit. With the stock reversing (of course) I’m giving some of that back and rolling it back up and out. Earnings next week…
Rolled ADSK MAR 2 2018 111.0 Calls to MAR 9 2018 115.0 Calls @ .96 debit
#spxcampaign Sold to open Mar 23rd 2870/2890 BeCS for 1.20 when SPX was at 2754. This condorized the BuPS. I have an order in for the same for the Mar 16th BuPS.