Blood on the Tracks


The wreck continues….

ES -76 so far
YM -850 thus far

As expected the Asia mkt continued the selling…

VIX Indicator

#VIXIndicator fired an additional SIX warnings today, which is a record for a single day as far back as 2000 (which is the extent to which I’ve measured).

It was the highest level the $VIX has reached since August 2015, and the highest close since October 2011.

Although it was the biggest ever single-day point drop on the DOW, it was only the 33rd biggest percentage drop.

A VIX close below 15.30 would signal the Warning is over (that number will change if we get a new VIX high). But the bottom will occur several days before that signal; the indicator is working well but it can’t pick a bottom!

XIV and SVXY crater

SVXY is at 12.00

UVXY peaked at 36 and already back down to 27.00
But VXX increased to a peak of 64.90, and is back to 55.00 now. That’s DOUBLE Friday’s close. This is what’s causing SVXY to crater, but not sure how the math drove it down to $10.00.

#svxy WOW svxy is down…

WOW svxy is down 75 point – I did not see this coming. With the boat weight so short volatility is there any expectation of a bounce tomorrow? I have 100, 90, 70, 60 put sitting out there. ouch. Thanks Laura

Feb 5 #Fuzzy Land I’m…

Feb 5 #Fuzzy Land
I’m a bit shell shocked after these last 2 days. As I watched my January profits approaching a 50% retracement, it was time to liquidate almost everything to protect that level. By end of the day today my Jan profits have retraced 61.8%. An appropriate number for fib aficionados! Fuzzy bear trades brought salve in the way of $7243.00 today. Only a couple Fuzzies remain: MU (x3), MSFT. Added a new long fuzzy on IWM and TLT, and a fuzzy bear on FXE.

I’ve got a family member, C-level exec in a public company, called me 2 weeks ago, wanted me to design a trade for him to protect his employee stock options that he couldn’t sell until April 1. He was not ethically allowed to short his own company. “No Problem” I said, got the perfect trade for you! A 5-lot SPX unhedged fuzzy bear would give him $150K profit in a 10% correction, the trade was really cheap; about $24.00 (Mar29 2800/2800/2805). Tonight the trade costs $211.00. That’s $93,500 profit. Did he do the trade? No (but I didn’t either). Guess who called during the game last night in a bit of a panic. Yep.

Closed Fuzzies for the quarter profits were slashed to $26,584. But I know a LOT of people have lost everything they made in Jan, so I’m grateful that I’m still green for the year. Other than small fuzzy bears for quick flips, I’m really trying to wait for the Face-Ripping rally to set substantial bear trades.

SVXY after hours

Trading in the low 40s.
VIX futures in strong backwardation: Screen Shot 2018-02-05 at 1.26.26 PM