Blood on the Tracks

#carnage

The wreck continues….

ES -76 so far
YM -850 thus far

As expected the Asia mkt continued the selling…

VIX Indicator

#VIXIndicator fired an additional SIX warnings today, which is a record for a single day as far back as 2000 (which is the extent to which I’ve measured).

It was the highest level the $VIX has reached since August 2015, and the highest close since October 2011.

Although it was the biggest ever single-day point drop on the DOW, it was only the 33rd biggest percentage drop.

A VIX close below 15.30 would signal the Warning is over (that number will change if we get a new VIX high). But the bottom will occur several days before that signal; the indicator is working well but it can’t pick a bottom!

XIV and SVXY crater

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/xiv-exchange-traded-security-linked-to-volatility-plummets-80-percent.html

SVXY is at 12.00

UVXY peaked at 36 and already back down to 27.00
But VXX increased to a peak of 64.90, and is back to 55.00 now. That’s DOUBLE Friday’s close. This is what’s causing SVXY to crater, but not sure how the math drove it down to $10.00.

#svxy WOW svxy is down…

#svxy
WOW svxy is down 75 point – I did not see this coming. With the boat weight so short volatility is there any expectation of a bounce tomorrow? I have 100, 90, 70, 60 put sitting out there. ouch. Thanks Laura

Feb 5 #Fuzzy Land I’m…

Feb 5 #Fuzzy Land
I’m a bit shell shocked after these last 2 days. As I watched my January profits approaching a 50% retracement, it was time to liquidate almost everything to protect that level. By end of the day today my Jan profits have retraced 61.8%. An appropriate number for fib aficionados! Fuzzy bear trades brought salve in the way of $7243.00 today. Only a couple Fuzzies remain: MU (x3), MSFT. Added a new long fuzzy on IWM and TLT, and a fuzzy bear on FXE.

I’ve got a family member, C-level exec in a public company, called me 2 weeks ago, wanted me to design a trade for him to protect his employee stock options that he couldn’t sell until April 1. He was not ethically allowed to short his own company. “No Problem” I said, got the perfect trade for you! A 5-lot SPX unhedged fuzzy bear would give him $150K profit in a 10% correction, the trade was really cheap; about $24.00 (Mar29 2800/2800/2805). Tonight the trade costs $211.00. That’s $93,500 profit. Did he do the trade? No (but I didn’t either). Guess who called during the game last night in a bit of a panic. Yep.

Closed Fuzzies for the quarter profits were slashed to $26,584. But I know a LOT of people have lost everything they made in Jan, so I’m grateful that I’m still green for the year. Other than small fuzzy bears for quick flips, I’m really trying to wait for the Face-Ripping rally to set substantial bear trades.

SVXY after hours

Trading in the low 40s.
VIX futures in strong backwardation: Screen Shot 2018-02-05 at 1.26.26 PM

After hours fill

#VXXGame Bought to close $SVXY June 145 call for 1.75. Sold for 10.00 on Dec 1st. Was trading at 20.00 a couple weeks ago.

SPX long puts sold

#SPXcampaign I bought these this morning (in pre-market) for 2.65.

Sold $SPX Feb 7th 2700/2675 put spreads for 17.00. Fill just before trading closed at 4:14 ET.

A 20K day trade!

Just caught the close, I…

Just caught the close, I know some people have not done well with the drop, but hang in there. This is where the big money is made when everyone else is running for the exits. The optionsbistro group will be there to sell them overpriced insurance policies (options)!

I will be setting up some SVXY/UVXY synthetics once I see a little stabilization.

Will also be rolling options by Wed, out of town at the end of the week.

Good luck!

Good night everyone

See you in the morning.

After hours..

….new lows in /ES and SPY, new highs in VIX

Good luck everyone!

I’ll be out for a lot of the week visiting family. Will be monitoring but not posting much. Letting synthetic weekly sales expire and sitting tight for now. Have fun!

#shortputspread SPY Sold March 16…

#shortputspread SPY

Sold March 16 235/245 for .96

VXX Game

#VXXGame Got antsy and took some profits on the way down… too early!
Bought to cover 100 shares of $SVXY for 86.00. Assigned awhile ago at 50.00. Still holding another 100.

Sold the long put on the $SVXY March 130/100 put spread: Sold 100 put for 23.00. If assigned the stock via the 130 put, it will be at 99.00 cost basis.

Also, just filled for 7.90 on the $UVXY Jan 2019 70 call. That’s 5 fills in one day, each one a dollar higher than the last.

VIX

We are in backwardation by 3.75 points in the front month. I would expect that there were more margin calls on the futures today.  The SVXY is diving right now. Only 22 more points to go to get to my level.

SPX puts sold

#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX March 9th 2300/2275 put spreads for 1.85. 350 points OTM!

AAPL ladder

Replacing some current and upcoming expirations in $AAPL. Sold:
Jun 15 130 put @ 1.60
Jul 20 125 put @ 1.40
Sep 21 120 put @ 1.65

SVXY

#SyntheticStock – Taking a nibble at the 80 level for Jan 2019. Averaging down from earlier positions..

80/80/77.50 @ 25.50

Max loss 28.00 with 50 weeks so min sale required of .56. No weekly sale yet…

Low TICKS

According to the TOS ticks, today we had the lowest TICK reading since November 2011.

UVXY

#VXXGame After loading up on short $UVXY Jan 70 calls in the space of an hour… 3.90, 4.90, 5.90, 6.90, I couldn’t resist selling one of my long 75 calls for 6.50. Bought for 1.59 avg price in early Jan.

My account is up today, thanks to the Downside Warning getting me pretty damn short.

XIV

#Stock – Bought tiny lots at 103.65, 100.50, and 95.50. Was hoping for more…

$SPX has bounced 40 pts…

$SPX has bounced 40 pts off the low

Overall…

#SyntheticStock positions actually holding up pretty nicely for now. Take out REGN and SVXY and it’s a flat day in main account. AAPL, AAOI, ADSK, and EWW green today. Crazy!

#fuzzy

SPX

#RocketManHedge – Let’s see if this works…rolling my weekly out to end of year and low as possible. Let the hedge ride as long as we are below the 50ma. When it recovers above the 50ma book the big profit on the hedge and start selling calls against the short LEAP put. Position size is what allows this…April hedge is up 85 points with the weekly cleared out…

Rolled this week’s short put to SPX DEC 31 2018 2500.0 Put @ 2.20 credit

SPX

I guess the 50day MA did not mean much in the way of support. The 200 day MA is a long way down from here. Scary.

We’re in the upside down

#Market #SPXcampaign For the last few months we have seen unending rallies, defying gravity. Many mornings we would open with a nice little pullback, getting enough traders worried the happy days were ending so they would sell, then the market turns around and notches another all-time high.

This morning’s “rally” was the reverse of that… Gap-down open, only to perk into positive territory, head faking enough to cover their shorts before we rip down to new lows.

It’s the upside down of last month.

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UVXY

#VXXGame – Darn it…can’t resist. Margin free against my short Jan 2020 5 strike puts.

Sold UVXY JUN 15 2018 60.0 Call @ 3.50

SVXY

Another 40 more points on the downside and I back up the truck.

/VX

#VXXGame – Instead of naked shorting UVXY, (I remember 2015 too well) I’m going with this along with the VIX call spreads I’m trying to add to. Going out a couple months where the moves are less volatile.

SOLD /VXJ8 @ 16.05 (April)

SVXY XIV

Pretty impressive drops…just like the good ‘ol days. Tempted to start accumulating some XIV as it drops. Can’t trade SVXY in the 401k…

#fuzzy

UVXY call

#VXXGame I’m building a much smaller ladder at a slower pace than the master ( @optioniceman )

Sold $UVXY March 16th 22 call for 3.20.

SPX trades

#SPXcampaign
Stopped: Feb 23rd 2665/2640 call spreads for 4.00. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 3.00 last Tuesday.
#CondorRoll: Sold Feb 9th 2600/2625/2785/2810 condors for 4.25. Expire this Friday.

Closed on GTC orders:
Feb 7th 2800/2825 call spreads for .30. Sold for 4.10 on Friday.
Mar 2nd 2895/2920 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.85 on Friday.

While we are in correction, call spreads become very lucrative. You can see I sold the two above only one trading day ago.

T2108

Anyone know where the T2108 is right now?

Are we having fun yet?

Enjoy trading this volatility? Just heard this great song… click “Home/REFRESH” and then a music player will appear in the right-hand column… spice up your trading day with a toe-tapping tune. —->

Screen Shot 2018-02-05 at 10.31.55 AM

$SPX

Now past 5% pull back, 6% is at $2700.
Sitting within a couple points of the 50sma right now, we’ll see if that comes into play or not.

SPX

STO Feb 7 2645/2640 .15 #bitty

SPY

BTO Feb 28 274/274/272 4.05 #Fuzzy
#Hedge STO Feb 9 279 .34

SPX puts stopped

#SPXcampaign Stopped $SPX Mar 2nd 2680/2655 put spreads for 3.85. Sold as a 1.5x-roll for 2.05 last Tuesday. Considering roll options later in the day.

AAPL

BTO Mar 23 162.50/162.5/160 4.50 #fuzzy

Finally revealed…

… what that kid was doing on his phone.

Screen Shot 2018-02-05 at 8.22.36 AM

$SPX #spxcampaign Closed my BePS…

$SPX #spxcampaign Closed my BePS 1.00 Too much going on with the set build to have these types of trades for me. But “I’ll be back.” Over all loss 539 per contract for 2 contracts. Ouchie.

$SVXY

Was away from the market for the first hour this morning so the first batch of trades were GTC orders that got hit. Didn’t get a chance to enter new trades until now. Added a couple more following some of @optioniceman trades.
STO Feb 16 $73 puts @ $0.56
STO Mar 2 $75 put @ $1.65
STO Apr 20 $70 put @ $3.95

We’ll see if the market stabilizes here or if this is just a rest area on the way to lower prices.

GWW

#ShortPuts – Thanks @Option Iceman

Sold 1 GWW JUL 20 2018 200.0 Put @ 4.30

$SVXY #ShortPuts #IRA – extending…

$SVXY #ShortPuts #IRA – extending an existing #OptionLadder
Sold 1 SVXY MAR 16 2018 60.0 Put @ 1.50
Sold 1 SVXY MAR 23 2018 60.0 Put @ 2.05

$SVXY $UVXY

Sold at the open
$UVXY Feb 16 $35 calls @ $0.33
$UVXY Mar 9 $26 calls @ $1.56
$UVXY Mar 16 $35 calls @ $1.34
$UVXY Apr 20 $26 call @$3.22
$UVXY Jun 15 $60 call @ $2.20
$SVXY Sep $60 put @ $7.85

$UVXY #ShortCalls #VXXGame – a…

$UVXY #ShortCalls #VXXGame – a couple of more
Sold UVXY FEB 9 2018 20.0 Calls @ 0.87 – Expires Friday
Sold UVXY FEB 16 2018 35.0 Calls @ 0.43

$KR #ShortPuts – Sold KR…

$KR #ShortPuts – Sold KR APR 20 2018 25.0 Puts @ 0.43

SPX calls closed

#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Feb 9th 2825/2850 call spreads for 1.05. Sold for 10.40 last Wednesday.

SPX

STO Feb 9 2645/2640 .20 #Bitty

IP

STO #Hedge Feb 9 64 .15

SPX trades

#SPXcampaign

Stopped $SPX Feb 15th 2675/2650 put spreads for 3.25. Sold for 1.50 on Jan 16th.
#ReverseRoll Sold Feb 12th 2790/2815 call spreads for 3.55

Sold Mar 9th 2865/2890 call spreads for 1.75

Closed on GTC order: Mar 2nd 2925/2950 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 last Wednesday.

$SPX #spccampaign Rolled my 2730…

$SPX #spccampaign Rolled my 2730 short put down to 2705 to create a 2710/2705 BePS for 7.40 debit. This just might turn the market back up.

WFC

STO September 50 puts @ 1.50

SPX put spread bought

#SPXcampaign I am already long a put spread from last week and I added another just after the SPX peaked a small rally in pre-market:

Bought to Open $SPX Feb 7th 2700/2675 put spreads for 2.65.

Econ Calendar for week of 2/5/18

Be Sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.

Screen Shot 2018-02-05 at 5.56.33 AM

Good morning

The SVXY breaks below 100. That is a nice start for the day.