UVXY It would have been…

It would have been a nice trade to buy UVXY puts yesterday.
Or even a put spread. UVXY is down $4.80

Feb 14 #Fuzzy Land Hi…

Feb 14 #Fuzzy Land
Hi Everyone! I’m starting to take some new Fuzzy nibbles. I’m still not seeing the indicator that I want for a full blown rally, so I’m being very cautious with size. I’m still making the bulk of my daily money with NQ scalping right now.
Open positions:
AAPL Fuzzy bear (apr 165/165/170) only a teensy 2-lot. Closed hedge today
DIA regular fuzzy: Mar 274/274/245 @ 3.87 w/ 251 hedge, 15 contracts in 2 accounts
FB Fuzzy bear (apr 175/175/180 @ 6.16, removed hedge today, 5 contracts
IWM Regular Fuzzy (Mar 151/151/149) hedged w/ 151 (ITM)
MU Regular Fuzzy (Apr 42/42/40) w/ 43.5 hedge (close to ITM)
SPY #AtomicFuzzy (Mar 269/269/267 x10, 271/275 x20) did you catch this?
TBT Regular Fuzzy (Apr 39/39/37) unhedged

Who caught the Atomic Fuzzy? Don Kaufman at Theo Trade has an “Atomic Hedge” trade, where OTM puts are bought at a certain expiration, and using the same expiration a 2x OTM call spread is sold to cover the cost of the puts, all against a long underlying position. The trade hedges pretty well, while still offering long delta for continued move up. Of course after reading about it, my first thought was “Fuzzify it!” So by doing the same thing with a Fuzzy, the max loss is cut in half or more. I put my first one on today and I liked the movement it saw in the rally. What it does is build in the hedge up front, so you can set it and forget managing hedges.

Here’s my specfic trade on SPY:
1. Synthetic: Mar 269/269 for .51 cr x 10
2. Protective puts: Mar 267 for 4.33 x10
3. Atomic element: Mar 271/275 call credit spread 1.63 cr x 20

Regular Fuzzy max loss: $5451
Atomic Fuzzy max loss: $2560

It does suck away about 100 delta so it moves more slowly than a regular unhedged fuzzy. Also it needs to be managed early to avoid the upside “sea of death”. But it moved well in today’s rally and is designed for holding just a week or two with this DTE, or can be designed with a much longer DTE.
I’m a tester/tweaker on everything, this is the first test….so I’m happy to keep reporting on these as a few more test cases are created. Hey…it sure is nice to see the cost of fuzzies coming DOWN!! 🙂

VXX moves

#VXXGame Added to existing long put positions:
Bought $VXX June 25 puts for .70
Bought $VXX Jan 2019 20 puts for 1.70
Bought $VXX June 30 put for 1.95

Also, sold $UVXY Jan long 75 put for 3.40. Purchased for 1.59 in January as a pre-hedge against short calls sold in February.

FB covered call

#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Sold $FB Mar 9th 187.5 call for 1.45.

I now have this campaign going for FB, $AAPL, and $BABA. I also have $VRTX but I plan to sell that stock once it gets to 170.00 area.

SVXY additional thoughts

So without being back in contango SVXY is now up 1.2% on the day. I have been looking at percentages and found some info that the reason it dropped so hard was because of the difference in the short vs. long term VIX nunbers. Had long term vol. been higher, the drop would not have been as severe. It appears that you have to watch the potential spread and the wider it gets, the more damage a volatility spike will cause.

Since vol had been so low, the difference caused by the spike was more severe.

Anyway, I certainly won’t trade it unhedged again but I think it is a useful tool for income and trading.

Also, at these suppressed levels the option premium is not there to justify selling cc yet, at least for me. We start getting some decent premiums I will start selling weeklies against it but need at least 0.40 a few strikes OTM before I would call that decent. Had you sold the ATM you would already be rolling.

Once back in contango (vix below 17 should trigger), the drag from rolling the options should start to have a good benefit. Historically about 1-2% every 2 weeks in looking at the contango history.

Do we zoom back to 140, probably not. But if we can stay in contango for a while, we could be sitting at the 30-40 level again in 6 months. That would be enough of a recovery for me to close everything out and move the earned back cash to other vehicles.

I think the best way to trade this would be #fuzzies after a vol spike. Controlled risk, no cap on upside if you do not sell calls against it.

I know a lot of us were burned on this and I can feel your pain, 2 IRA accounts almost completely wiped out, but I think if we are patient, hedge gradually on the way up (buy puts in case it goes to zero), we can get back most of what we lost in about 6-12 months. Of course any additional vol. spikes will slow that down. Be patient but hedge.

Just thinking out lot. Anyone else have anything to add please comment……….


#earnings SHOP A sign of…

#earnings SHOP
A sign of the times “Shopify Shares Continue To Rally, Now Up ~7% Wednesday And 13.5% For The Week, As Traders Circulate A CBC Article From Feb. 12th Highlighting A Deal Between The Ontario Govt. And Shopify To Run Online Cannabis Sales”

#earnings #shortputspread AAPL Way back…

#earnings #shortputspread AAPL
Way back in what seems like another time, January 25 and 26, I sold put spreads 155/160 and 162.50/165 ahead of earnings and out to Feb. 16. I closed them today after 3 strong moves, made a little, didn’t lose any.