#SPX1dte Bought to close 2600/2575 put spreads for .10. Will close call spreads for .05.
Monthly Archives: December 2018
TQQQ
BTC December 28, 40 puts @ .80, sold yesterday at 1.70
Over on SMM,Gartman
Fox business said he hit Job number projecting yesterday 155,000. His projection came true. Still bearish on stocks, same view as last 6 months. Would not put new money in market.
November Jobs Report
#Jobs Lower than expected.
+155,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 198K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.6%, up by 0.2%
Wages up 0.2%, or 6 cents, 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 62.9%, unchanged
October revised down from 250k to 237k
September revised up from 119k to 134k
AAPL put spread
Sold $AAPL Jan 18 165/160 BuPS @ 1.12. IV rank is 66. Delta of short puts 28. Could be a double bottom on the daily–if there’s follow through I’ll look to take this off quickly with help from delta and a contraction of IV.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 2600/2580 put spread for .75. Legging in since market is moving higher. Trying for 2750/2770 on call side.
#earnings #shortstrangles LULU Sold Dec….
#earnings #shortstrangles LULU
Sold Dec. 21, 100/160 for 1.29, thanks for the data Jeff.
TRADES:
SFIX 12/14/18 23.5 PUT @1.00
SFIX 12/14/18 31.0 CALL @1.47 I’m trying to work out an earnings play for next week. Have to buy stock.
PBYI 12/14/18 22.5 PUT @1.10
And…the Qs are positive
Nasdaq up on the day, after being down almost 175 points lower this morning
AMZN
Earlier I bought to open the December 7, 1625/1640 bull call spread at 10.50 for a small trade of 5 contracts. I have an order in to sell it at 14.50 so may get filled at the end of the day or early tomorrow.
TRADES: Was down 2.5% this…
TRADES: Was down 2.5% this morning, almost flat now.
BTC Short Calls in, PCG, AMD, DBX & WLL @.05 this morning.
DBX STO 12/14/18 23.50 CALLS @.40
WFC STO a 12/14/18 50/45 BuPS @.80
Jeff, doing a earnings analysis…
Jeff, doing a earnings analysis on SFIX?
SMH
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Surprisingly this ticker isn’t getting killed too bad today (yet)…
Bought to Close SMH DEC 7 2018 98.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .85)
Sold SMH DEC 14 2018 95.0 Calls @ .82
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – This week’s short puts are obviously safe. Sizable position with nice profits. For risk management I used those profits to buy back a couple short calls I wasn’t comfortable with. Position is out to 2021 so plenty of time to get that back. Much more comfortable now with one short call against 8 short puts in the weeklies. Sold next week’s…
Sold UVXY DEC 14 2018 55.0 Puts @ 1.72
Vix finally moving up quickly,…
Vix finally moving up quickly, possible bottom, there is a lot of volume here over the last 30 days on volume profile. Who knows but if it breaks this level probably a lot more downside.
Going for bike, should know when I get back.
Rolls
Trying to get back to selling weeklies, better returns in real time confirmed by my account balances. Taking a credit of 0.4 every week works out to $2080 profits for 52 weeks vs. 1.2 x 12 months only works out to $1440 or 37% better return. So anyway, even with the gamma risk the decay is much faster on weeklies and the #pietrades concept works so now I am trying to apply it to all other trades, #fuzzy, #coveredcalls etc. to increase income. Last 8-12 weeks had gone out 21-45 DTE on expirations to help deal with the volatility. Trying to pull everything back to weekly now. I know TT shows 45 DTE works best but not according to my account balances.
#fuzzy
MU 40/40 8 DTE rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.53 credit. Cb now 14.16
WDC 40/47 8 DTE rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.27 credit. Cb 21.13
GILD 67.5/69 1 DTE rolled out to 8 DTE for 0.61 credit. Cb 10.35. I really wanted to let some more time decay but doubt I will have time to trade tomorrow. Starting to see flu so the office is really busy. Get your flu shots if you have not had them yet.
Added 1 more at lunch time, EOG 110/110 8 DTE rolled out 15 DTE for 0.30. Cb 12.39
Still have 110 weeks to manage all these. The #fuzzy trades handle the volatility better than anything else I have on at the moment.
#pietrades
LNG 1 DTE rolled out to 8 DTE at 62 cc for 0.45 credit. Cb 59.58
Lots of expirations next week and week after. Should free ups some cash to try a live #lizardpies and maybe @elitethink short iron fly tactic, small lots on both.
Hope everyone is having a good week 🙂
#shortstock KBE Nov. 2, sold…
#shortstock KBE
Nov. 2, sold short 100 shares of the regional banking ETF at 43.20. Nov. 6 sold a 41 put for .40, bought it Tue. for .35.
Today bought to cover the 100 shares for 41.10.
#earnings #shortstrangles FIVE Dec. 4,…
#earnings #shortstrangles FIVE
Dec. 4, sold an 85/125 strangle for 1.28, bought today for .39
#assignment #fuzzy SLB Feb. 16,…
#assignment #fuzzy SLB
Feb. 16, sold a Jan. 18, 2019 65/67.50 as part of a fuzzy. I was assigned the 67.50 yesterday. After selling the 65 put for 22.50, figuring in the worthless 67.50 long call, and all of the short call sales ,the cost basis is 44.26.
TQQQ
STO December 28, 40 puts @ 1.70
ULTA earnings analysis
#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 AC 6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC 7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13% Biggest DOWN
May 25, 2017 AC 3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC 4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -6.11%
May 26, 2016 AC 9.10%
March 10, 2016 AC 17.27% Biggest UP
Dec. 3, 2015 AC 12.80%
Avg (+ or -) 6.88%
Bias 3.28%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 290.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 271.98 to 308.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 270.04 to 309.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.3%): 239.92 to 340.08
Open for requests on other symbols.
LULU earnings analysis
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 AC 13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC 16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC 9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC 7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC 11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 7, 2016 AC 15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
June 8, 2016 BO 4.90%
March 30, 2016 BO 10.71%
Dec. 9, 2015 BO -13.11%
Avg (+ or -) 11.79%
Bias 3.94%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 133.50 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 119.62 to 147.38
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 117.32 to 148.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 101.84 to 164.16
Open for requests on other symbols.
AVGO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 6, 2018 AC 7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC 8.49%
March 1, 2017 AC 0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC 4.90%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -2.24%
June 2, 2016 AC 4.93%
March 3, 2016 AC 6.35%
Dec. 2, 2015 AC 9.50% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.68%
Bias 2.46%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 225.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 212.36 to 237.64
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 214.48 to 235.52
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 203.63 to 246.38
Open for requests on other symbols.
@elitethink Spy example with a…
Spy example with a 30 point spread. Based on math, the straddle is selling for 7.6 next Wed or 1 week and 4 x that would be 30 points. So here is an example on a 30 point wide iron fly.
Second graph shows an adjustment if it dropped to 262, now of course the prices would change but shows a flattening of the risk curve.
I know this is not what you are doing but just trying to get the basic math down.
So if the first graph is correct, at what point do you adjust?
Interesting idea
Stop at 9.3 debit, then add next spread in same expiration or going out to next expiration? Obviously at this point one side would be winning.
This is kind of my idea with the #lizardpies, sell the straddle to make as much decay as possible, hedge the upside, cash secured on put side.
Yeah, post the live trades, I am interested in how it works live in the market 🙂
Econ Calendar revised
Revised with today’s holiday and Jerome Powell speaks after market close on Thursday.
https://wp.me/p6Nxuc-dV8
Maybe the leveraged products are…
Maybe the leveraged products are not so good for options. We definitely saw that with SVXY. TT has done some new research.
Obviously the advantage is a lot of them are priced lower than SPY so can use in smaller accounts.
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/trading-options-on-leveraged-etfs-11-26-2018
Also, finally had time to read the optionsellers.com debacle. No one will mange your own money better than you. I think everyone here knows that. I read their book, actually good but maybe naked strangles on futures not the best idea.
Figured with a quiet trading day would pass this along.
Researching an Idea
Hi gang, I thought some of you might be interested in a method I am testing. ‘Have a friend who took his TOS sim account from $100k to $1.3 million in a couple months using this idea the last few months. If you are like me you don’t trust sim prices, but eventually i had to look into it. One week of trading real time in sim, and adding significant friction to overcome the sim pricing and the results are encouraging, +35% in my first week. We will begin live trading this Friday.
The model is simple and uses spx/es next expiration options.
model: sell the atm iron fly, set stops for each vertical spread at 1.3x the vertical spread credit.
once a stop takes place: lower the stop for the other side to break even, look for a cross of the short term ma on 1 min bars and set up another iron fly, set stops at 1.3x again.
rinse and repeat, once the 4th iron fly is established, take profits on the leg remaining from the first iron fly. Keep taking profits as iron flys are established.
this is a ton of work, but it made 12 spx points today after slippage and commission, with 33 trades.
#market
TNA TQQQ
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Another round…let’s see if the market can get back to these.
TNA:
Bought to Close TNA DEC 7 2018 67.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .92)
Sold TNA DEC 21 2018 66.5 Calls @ .81
TQQQ:
Bought to Close TQQQ DEC 7 2018 55.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .45 after paying a debit roll)
Sold TQQQ DEC 21 2018 54.0 Calls @ .85
DG
#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Replacing this week’s 122’s…
Sold DG DEC 21 2018 109.0 Calls @ .60
Yesterday I was a trading…
Yesterday I was a trading GENIUS, screen looked like pea soup, today I’m a trading moron, screen looks like salsa with a teeny teeny bit of cilantro.
Bipolar market again, either buy…
Bipolar market again, either buy everything or sell everything. Anyone have a sign for that? The only thing saving my accounts is large positive theta decay, $300+ daily no matter which way the market moves.
NFLX put spread-Dec
Sold $NFLX Dec 21 250/240 BuPS @ 1.20. IV rank is 68. Delta of the short put is 16.
#earnings #shortstrangles FIVE Sold Dec….
#earnings #shortstrangles FIVE
Sold Dec. 21, 85/125 for 1.28, outside the averages, just inside the call max,-thanks for the info Jeff
TQQQ calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Since these started the day ITM, taking profits now as this may be a sustained bounce.
BTC $TQQQ Dec 7th 51.5 calls for .55. Sold last week for 1.25.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1-dte — in trouble again, last week to upside, today on downside. If we get no bounce I’m going to roll into an ATM or ITM put spread a week or two out.
UVXY call spread
#VXXGame Sold to Open $UVXY Dec 21st 50/60 call spreads for 4.35. Max risk 5.65, but also can manage to roll if we stay above this level for 2 more weeks.
Also, Sold UVXY Jan 2020 135 call for 9.50.
SQ calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $SQ Dec 7th 67 calls for 1.00. Sold in a roll for 3.10 last week. Stock now at 65.00 after topping out at 73.00 yesterday.
FIVE earnings analysis
#Earnings $FIVE reports Wednesday afternoon. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 6, 2018 AC 13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC 21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC 4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC 0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC 10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC 9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%
June 2, 2016 AC 2.07%
March 22, 2016 AC 6.81%
Dec. 3, 2015 AC 5.44%
Avg (+ or -) 6.66%
Bias 5.82%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 104.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 94.10 to 113.90
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 97.07 to 110.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 81.27 to 126.73
Open for requests on other symbols.
RTN
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Bought to Close RTN DEC 14 2018 185.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .86)
BOIL Dec
Sold $BOIL Dec 21 105 calls @ 1.50. BOIL would need to double from here in 2 1/2 weeks to reach the strike.
OLED
#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Hopefully add some more later in the week when the current ones get a little more profit in them…
Sold OLED DEC 21 2018 105.0 Call @ 1.00
KOLD
STO Jan 18 8 Put 1.05
also have Dec 21 8 Put
RH calls
Sold $RH Jan 18 165 calls @ 3.00 with the stock at 144.96.
#shortstrangles WLL TastyTrade idea sold…
#shortstrangles WLL
TastyTrade idea sold Jan. 18, 26/38 strangle for 1.68
#earnings #shortstrangles DG Closed 101/123…
#earnings #shortstrangles DG #shortstraddle GME
DG Closed 101/123 strangle for .95, sold yesterday for 1.52.
GME November 29, sold 15 straddle for 2.20, bought today for 1.70
LULU date moved
#Earnings $LULU shifting to Thursday after close:
http://investor.lululemon.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lululemon-athletica-inc-announces-date-change-its-third-quarter
RH earnings
My apologies but they announced last night. Looks like they moved up a day at some point… TOS and others reflect it accurately but optionslam.com failed to move it.
Platform upgrade
Tradestation released version 10. For anyone using it I suggest you update. Faster, more stable, looks like easier trading and all your tools will automatically transfer, just make sure you click yes for the import. Looks like they are trying to catch up with TOS.
Cheers!
Closings from today
Bought to close the following:
$NVDA Dec 21 120 puts @ .06. Sold for 1.25 on 11/16.
$NVDA Jan 18 110 puts @ .20. Sold for 1.47 on 11/16.
$UVXY Dec 7 70/80 BeCS @ .04. Sold for 1.25 on 11/6.
$UVXY Jan 18 2019 75 call @ 1.30. Sold for 4.35 on 10/4.
$BA Dec 21 305/300 BuPS @ .09. Sold for 1.27 on 11/19.
$AMZN Dec 21 1470/1450 BuPS @ .31. Sold for 3.41 on 11/12.
$SOXL Dec 21 85 put @ .84-.85. Sold for 5.40-5.67 on 10/10.
#shortcallspreads WWE sold Dec. 21,…
sold Dec. 21, 75/80 call spread for 1.50
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte My spread for today, Dec 3rd 2620/2640-2850/2870 condors, sold Friday for .95, will expire.
Sold $SPX Dec 5th 2715/2735-2830/2850 condors for .85. Expire tomorrow, the 4th, due to market closure on Wednesday.
Went from 210 points wide, down to 85.
Stock Market Closed this Wednesday
I am trying to determine when Wednesday SPX options will now settle. I have heard that it will be tomorrow, Tuesday, but have not confirmed.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-george-hw-bushs-funeral-means-for-stock-market-bond-traders-commodities-2018-12-03/print
#earnings #shortstrangles DG Playing the…
Playing the 5 day averages, sold Dec. 21, 101/123 for 1.52. Thanks Jeff
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Selling small against short puts….
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 7 2018 60.0 Call @ .17 (sold for 2.30)
Sold UVXY DEC 14 2018 50.0 Call @ 2.42
EWW
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Over sales so getting out of the way…
Bought to Close EWW DEC 14 2018 44.0 Calls @ .30 (sold for .48)
GLD
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Over sales so getting out of the way…
Bought to Close GLD DEC 14 2018 120.0 Calls @ .14 (sold for .46)
SOXL
STO February 150 calls at 3.50, thanks to Jeff for the idea. Since I am short the 80 puts in May, his should work out.
DG earnings analysis
#Earnings $DG reports ton tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.97%
May 31, 2018 BO -9.36%
March 15, 2018 BO 4.75%
Dec. 7, 2017 BO 2.77%
Aug. 31, 2017 BO -5.43%
June 1, 2017 BO 6.54%
March 16, 2017 BO 0.53%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO -4.96%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -17.62% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO 4.61%
March 10, 2016 BO 10.66% Biggest UP
Dec. 3, 2015 BO 4.23%
Avg (+ or -) 6.04%
Bias -0.35%, no significant bias on earnings.
Since it’s only Monday, I checked the 5-day moves… the most down was -15.6%, so less than 1-day, and the most up was 14.1%, more than the 1-day.
With stock at 111.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 103.49 to 118.51
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 104.30 to 117.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 91.44 to 130.56
Open for requests on other symbols.
AZO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AZO reports ton tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06%
Dec. 5, 2017 BO 0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO 0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%
May 24, 2016 BO 2.47%
March 1, 2016 BO 2.06%
Dec. 8, 2015 BO 5.83% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.30%
Bias -2.43%, negative bias on earnings.
Since it’s only Monday, I checked the 5-day moves… the extremes were LOWER than the 1-day moves, meaning extreme 1-day moves tend to fade over the following few days.
With stock at 815.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 771.48 to 858.52
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 779.98 to 850.02
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 718.50 to 911.50
Open for requests on other symbols.
SOXL call
#ContangoETF Sold to Open $SOXL Feb 150 call for 4.50. Against Feb 75 short put.
#rolling #coveredcalls WYNN Rolled Dec….
#rolling #coveredcalls WYNN
Rolled Dec. 7, 106 call to Dec. 21 for .65. WYNN is up 11 to 120.
#shortstock #shortputs CAKE Nov. 16,…
#shortstock #shortputs CAKE
Nov. 16, sold 100 shares short for 47.95 and sold a covered put for .85.
Nov. 30 bought the put for .65
Today, bought to cover 100 shares at 46.06.
SVXY
STO December 14, 52.5 calls @ .90 cents replacing the 51 calls that expired on Friday. Just chipping away at this one.
S&P up 140 points…?
Cramer says this scenario will be a 5 percent rally. It’s still anybody’s guess…
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/01/us-china-wont-impose-additional-tariffs-after-january-1-report.html
Options Bistro 