CTRP earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings Out of the three candidates this morning, this one had the best Dub-Cal return and lowest average post-earnings move (other two were $BBY and $NTAP). However, it did have its biggest moves in last two quarters.

Bought $CTRP May 24/May31 38 #DoubleCalendar for .25 and .27. Double size since cost is so low.

#Earnings $CTRP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 4, 2019 AC +19.77% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -19.01% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 5, 2018 AC +5.43%
May 22, 2018 AC +3.98%
March 14, 2018 AC -1.94%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.29%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -2.40%
May 10, 2017 AC -3.52%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +1.44%
Nov. 23, 2016 AC +9.80%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC +3.40%
June 15, 2016 AC +1.50%

Avg (+ or -) 6.21%
Bias 1.35%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 38.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.33 to 41.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.64 to 40.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.8%): 30.49 to 45.51

Open to requests for other symbols.