Daily Archives: Wednesday, June 12, 2019
Congratulations to the St. Louis Blues
Happy for you Fuzzy, and all long-suffering Blues fans!
Game 7
I feel like I might have jinxed game 6, so I’m not gonna say anything about who’s gonna win tonight, Fuzzy. All I’ll say is enjoy the game. It’s looking to be a great one!
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX June 14th 2815/2790 put spreads for .25. Sold for 2.50 on Friday.
Expired: June 12th 2825/2845/2920/2940, sold yesterday for .95.
SPX Campaign Close Early and Expire
#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 6/14 2815/2790 BUPS at .50. STO for 2.45 on 6/7
#optionsexpiration
$SPX 6/12 2850/2825/2920/2940
Thanks @jeffcp66
LULU earnings
Sold 6/21 150/155/185/190 iron condor @ 2.25 credit.
Stock around 170.30. Short strikes right at expected move (+/- 15 points).
Play Puts
#shortputs
$PLAY STO 7/19 40 put at 2.30.
#fallingknife PLAY is down 22%
#fallingknife
PLAY is down 22%
SQ
#ShortPuts – Completely out of this now…
Bought to Close SQ JUN 21 2019 60.0 Puts @ .10 (sold for 1.06)
Adding to DRIP
Added a bit to this position (at the highest strike in Sep). Sold 9/20 21 calls @ 2.20 with DRIP at 16.07. My previous sales were at 1.55. Still pretty far out of the money but making a strong move up on the continued hammering of oil.
RH Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Never had much luck with this one but IV is high enough to give it a shot…
Sold RH JUN 14 2019 80.0/100.0/103.0 Jade Lizard @ 3.15
LULU Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – My usual. Playing max downside protection with no upside risk. Would get the stock at a basis right at the 200ma.
Sold LULU JUN 14 2019 152.5/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.10
#brokenwingbutterfly #shortcallspreads CMG
Combination TastyTrade/ @ramie77 concepts
Sold July 19, 785/795/795//815 butterfly for 1.00. This is profitable below 806.
Sold July 19, 800/810 call spread for 1.75.
CMG is up 7 days in a row (thought I heard of some 3 day rule), some 100 points or so.
#earnings LULU
Sold July 19, 130/210 strangle for 1.65. Thanks for the data Jeff.
FB put spread
Sold $FB 7/19 165/155 bull put spread @ 1.72.
#closing LRCX
January 23 I sold a 120/160 earnings strangle. It quickly tore threw 160 and up to 209 after April earnings.
I adjusted this trade 7 times, went inverted and assigned short shares while having a short 185 put. LRCX is down about 8 to around 180 today. I closed the position and made about $3, yes $3.00, not $300.00. It wasn’t the best use of capital as TDA was requiring over 8K in margin for awhile. However I’m unscathed and looking at LULU and RH.
RH earnings analysis
#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 28, 2019 AC -21.96%
Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75% Biggest UP
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69% Biggest DOWN
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%
June 8, 2016 AC -21.23%
Avg (+ or -) 18.96%
Bias 2.28%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 93.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 78.98 to 108.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 75.77 to 111.23
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 51.66 to 135.34
Based on DOWN Max only (-25.7%): 69.48
Open to requests for other symbols.
LULU earnings analysis
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
June 8, 2016 BO +4.90%
Avg (+ or -) 12.10%
Bias 4.21%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 171.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 154.13 to 187.87
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 150.32 to 191.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 130.93 to 211.07
Based on UP Max only (+16.3%): 198.89
Open to requests for other symbols.
UVXY
#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Let’s give Mr. Market something to shoot at…
Sold UVXY JUL 5 2019 40.0 Call @ 2.00
Options Bistro 