Expired / BYND Puts

#spxcampaign
$SPX 2795/2770 BUPs STO at 1.30
$SPX 2795/2770 BUPs (Sold in two accounts by fortuitous happening, i.e. not paying attention) STO at 1.45
$SPX 2900/2875 BUPs STO at .85
$SPX 2795/2770 BECS STO at 1.15
Thank you @jeffcp66

#longputs
$BYND BTO 6/28 157.50 put at 5.95 Stock a little like my ekg. We will see.

Closing ABBV

A quick 1 day profit, taking off for >50% of the max profit. Bought to close 7/19 65 puts @ .90. Sold for 1.94 yesterday. Thanks for the idea @geewhiz112 !

ATVI ITM rollout

Been rolling this losing trade out since November. Or maybe I should adopt a more optimistic attitude and call it a “soon to be ex-losing trade”. Rolled 7/19 50 puts out to 8/16 50 puts @ .85 credit with the stock at 46.76.

Total credit so far (this will be the 8th rollout): 2.17. Stock is let’s say around 1.00 below the August breakeven. Technically the stock is in an uptrend the last month and is now above the major moving averages with the 20 close to crossing above the 50. Of course there are earnings to deal with before August expiration. If the stock makes a run into earnings then I won’t have to worry about it.

#syntheticcoveredcalls

$TQQQ BTC 7/5 60 call and STO 7/19 62 call at even.

WBA earnings analysis

#Earnings $WBA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 2, 2019 BO -12.80% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -5.02%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO -1.94%
June 28, 2018 BO -9.90%
March 28, 2018 BO +2.47%
Jan. 4, 2018 BO -5.17%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +3.07%
June 29, 2017 BO +1.66%
April 5, 2017 BO -1.61%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.06%
Oct. 20, 2016 BO +4.97% Biggest UP
July 6, 2016 BO -2.35%

Avg (+ or -) 4.25%
Bias -2.21%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 52.70 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 49.93 to 55.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.46 to 54.94
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.8%): 45.95 to 59.45
Based on UP Max only (+5.0%): 55.32

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 9-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 5th 2800/2825-3000/3025 condors for 3.90. IV: 16.22%, SPX 2923

TRADES:

TLRY BTO STOCK MINIMUM to cover a call @47.51
TLRY STO 6/28/19 45.0 PUTS @.60
TLRY STO 6/28/19 48.0 CALLS @.91
TLRY STO 6/28/19 48.5 CALLS @.83