#SPX1dte Sold $SPX June 21st 2890/2910-2990/3010 condors for .65, IV 13%, SPX 2954.
Daily Archives: Thursday, June 20, 2019
SHOP call spread
$SHOP printing an inverted hammer today and coming back inside the upper bollinger band on the daily chart. This may have topped out for now. Sold 7/19 340/350 bear call spread @ 3.33. Short strike above today’s high.
Keeping it on a short leash and will close out quickly if the stock reverses back up and tests 340 again.
A TRADE: I STO the…
A TRADE: I STO the contracts this morning, and BTO the stock too. So I’m rolling it out now for .16 credit, and 2.5 strikes higher.
TLRY BTC 6/21/19 47.0 CALLS @2.25
TLRY STO 6/28/19 49.5 CALLS @2.41
OK, I’m in, after being…
OK, I’m in, after being shut out all day. Comments are not timely.
BTO TLRY STOCK @45.68
STO TLRY 6/21/19 47.0 CALLS @1.00 Covered
STO TLRY 6/28/19 47.5 CALLS @1.70 Covered
Blow off top?
SPX plunging, Gold rising, VIX spiking.
RHT long shot
#Earnings #Takeover Bought $RHT June 21st 190 calls for .06, .09, .10.
I doubt this will go anywhere but it’s costing me almost nothing. Was filled for .09 on IB, then TOS would only allow .05 increments, so bought there for .10, then went back to IB, bidding .09 for more and was filled for .06. I was charged zero commission for the .09 bunch, but 1.44 per option on the .06 bunch.
Brokers can be nutty.
SPX 9-dte stopped
#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX Jun 26th 2960/2985 calls spreads for 5.60. Condors sold for 3.00 on Monday.
#earnings KMX
Sold a fuzzballish Big Lizard, July 19, 72.70/80/82.50/85 #ironcondor for 2.82. Thanks for the data Jeff.
KMX dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $KMX Jun21/Jun28 83 #DoubleCalendar for .43. Filling slowly, 1 lot every minute or so.
KMX earnings analysis
#Earnings $KMX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 29, 2019 BO +9.61%
Dec. 21, 2018 BO +3.94%
Sept. 26, 2018 BO -1.60%
June 22, 2018 BO +12.86% Biggest UP
April 4, 2018 BO +4.61%
Dec. 21, 2017 BO -3.60%
Sept. 22, 2017 BO +7.77%
June 21, 2017 BO +0.80%
April 6, 2017 BO +2.36%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +6.09%
Sept. 21, 2016 BO -2.04%
June 21, 2016 BO -4.91% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.02%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 82.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.07 to 87.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 78.36 to 86.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 71.89 to 93.11
Based on UP Max only (-4.9%): 78.45
Open to requests for other symbols.
RHT earnings ???
#Earnings $RHT reports tonight, but there is no volatility or premium in options expiring tomorrow. I don’t know what’s going on, because all sources say it reports tonight. Time to buy a buttload of long straddles? Anyone know what’s up?
Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 25, 2019 AC +0.29%
Dec. 17, 2018 AC 0.00%
Sept. 19, 2018 AC -6.53%
June 21, 2018 AC -14.23%
March 26, 2018 AC +0.86%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC -5.32%
Sept. 25, 2017 AC +4.07%
June 20, 2017 AC +9.58%
March 27, 2017 AC +5.20%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -13.88%
Sept. 21, 2016 AC +3.86%
June 22, 2016 AC -1.70%
Avg (+ or -) 5.46%
Bias -1.48%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 188.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 187.23 to 189.77 (???)
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 178.21 to 198.79
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.2%): 161.88 yo 215.32
Based on UP Max only (+9.6%): 206.56
Open to requests for other symbols.
NUGT at 1-year highs
#ContangoETFs Sold $NUGT Dec 35 calls for 2.85
Also followed @Ramie77, sold Sept 35 calls for 1.40
UBER rolling continues
More NUGT
Sold $NUGT 9/20 35 calls @ 1.40. Highest strike in Sep.
LABU
#ShortPuts – Booking and selling new at the breakout level just below the 50ma. Trying to roll an itm covered call also so wouldn’t mind a pullback.
Bought to Close LABU JUN 21 2019 45.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 2.65)
Sold LABU JUL 26 2019 45.0 Put @ 2.20
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX June 20th (monthlys) 2970/2990 call spreads for 1.75. Condors sold yesterday for 1.00. Cannot allow this to sit overnight as settlement on monthlys is Friday morning’s open. I’ll let the put side expire then.
Good morning
All things hinge on the Fed… finally getting the VIX drop that just would not come.
Options Bistro 