#earnings DIS
Sold Sept. 20, 130/150 strangle for 3.49, thank you Jeff for the data.
Monthly Archives: August 2019
TRADES:
BYND STO 8/9/19 170/175 BeCS @.75
STNE BTO STOCK @35.02
PAYS BTO STOCK @10.98
DIS earnings analysis
#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 8, 2019 AC -1.03%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -1.10%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +1.72%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87% Biggest DOWN
May 9, 2017 AC -2.15%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 0.00%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +2.86% Biggest UP
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +1.23%
Avg (+ or -) 1.78%
Bias -0.47%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 140 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 133.71 to 146.29
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.51 to 142.49
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (3.9%): 134.58 to 145.42
Based on UP max only (+2.9%): 144.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings WYNN Sold Sept. 20,…
#earnings WYNN
Sold Sept. 20, 90/130 strangle for 3.02. Thanks for the data Jeff.
TRADES:
YETI STO 8/9/19 30.5 CALLS @.50
YETI STO 8/9/19 28.5 PUTS @.65
V STO 8/9/19 167.5/162.5 BuPS @.75
#earnings #closing PG July 29,…
SPX 1-dayer
SPX 2760/2755 BuPS for 0.20-0.25 for tomorrow, you can adjusted if the SPX down to yesterday low
WYNN earnings analysis
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 9, 2019 AC -4.72%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.09%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67% Biggest UP
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
Avg (+ or -) 6.25%
Bias -2.15%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 110.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 101.52 to 118.48
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 103.13 to 116.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 95.56 to 124.44
Based on UP max only (+8.7%): 119.54
Open to requests for other symbols.
ISRG
#JadeLizards – Rolling call spread down to the short put strike for additional premium. Still no upside risk but won’t make as much on a rally.
Rolled ISRG AUG 16 2019 535.0/540.0 BeCS to ISRG AUG 16 2019 500.0/505.0 BeCS @ 1.78 credit.
Total premium received now is up to 7.70. Make 2.70 on a big rally or receive stock at a basis of 492.30
WYNN Earnings
#CoveredCalls #Earnings – Similar to REGN yesterday rolling a covered call down aggressively for more premium. Fading the rally today…feels like all news is still bad news. REGN beat top and bottom and stock went nowhere.
Rolled WYNN AUG 09 2019 121.0 Call to AUG 09 2019 113.0 Call @ 2.40 credit (5.75 total now)
DRIP
#BearCallSpreads – After seeing a crude oil chart yesterday with Carter Worth talking about the potential downside in oil I’m moving my naked call into bear call spreads. Going out in time and increasing size to make it worthwhile. I believe DRIP will be below 70 by 2021. Recently I’ve been trying to really cap my losses to the upside and this helps with that.
Rolled DRIP DEC 20 2019 115.0 Call to JAN 15 2021 70.0/80.0 Bear Call Spreads
Total credit in the spreads is now 1.60 per spread. I look at this as being similar to long term UVXY positions I’ve had in the past on huge spikes…
SPX another round
#SPX1dte I think we have at least one more leg down.
Sold $SPX Aug 12th 2900/2925 call spreads for 9.00
#closing SPX Sold Sept. 20,…
#closing SPX
Sold Sept. 20, 2825/2840 LCS spread for 10.10 bought yesterday for 9.5
SPX closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.80.
Highest VIX
#VIXindicator Today was the highest $VIX since January 3rd, when VIX was dropping from its Christmas Eve highs.
$VXX and $UVXY were higher in May, as they suffer from Contango.
Over on SMM
Someone posted that Trump has accepted an invitation to visit China for what that is worth.
#closing #shortstock DISH IP HIG…
#closing #shortstock DISH IP HIG #longcallspread SPX
I was able to close these 3 for small gains as earlier this year I was selling short stock at one of the worst times in history.
SPZ #tastytradefollow bought Sept 20, 2825/2840 for 9.50, playing for a bounce.
SPX put spread
#SPX1dte Didn’t get any bounce to sell call spreads, so tried a put spread.
Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for 1.80. Hopefully I can close this tomorrow.
Two more Warnings fired today, but I gotta think at least a small relief rally will happen tomorrow. This is a pretty brutal day. #VIXindicator
SPY
#ShortPuts – Adding here. Almost caught the high of the day on this one…
Sold SPY OCT 18 2019 270 Put @ 5.50
QQQ
I sold a small amount of the 170 puts at 3.17 in my IRA. I would be taking the stock at the 200 day MA if assigned.
REGN Earnings
#CoveredCalls – Rolling covered call down fairly aggressively to slightly inside the expected move. Seems like all news will be bad news for awhile no matter what they report.
Rolled REGN AUG 09 2019 325.0 Call to AUG 09 2019 312.5 Call @ 2.65 credit (4.95 total now)
Worden/TC 2000 readings
T2108 24.63
T2122 2.75
REGN earnings analysis
#Earnings $REGN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 7, 2019 BO -6.34% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -3.43%
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
Avg (+ or -) 3.25%
Bias 0.18%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 300.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 279.50 to 320.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 290.24 to 309.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 279.03 to 320.97
Based on DOWN max only (-6.3%): 290.98
Open to requests for other symbols.
NUGT’s up
#ContangoETFs NUGT is reaching highest levels since Sept 2017. These are my first sales where I am #Rolling from stopped 35 calls.
Sold $NUGT Jan 2020 50 calls for 5.75.
SPX 1-dayer
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 2.90. Sold Friday for 10.30.
If we get any strong bounce today I’ll try this again.
Have a nice weekend
I am done for the day.
SQ
#CoveredCalls – Getting a tiny bounce so selling covered calls at the 200ma resistance. Using spreads since no naked calls in this account and won’t get the stock until the weekend.
Sold SQ AUG 16 2019 71.0/81.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.34
LABU
#CoveredCalls – Can’t quite get it to expire…
Rolled LABU AUG 02 2019 42.0 Call to AUG 23 2019 44.0 Call @ 1.95 credit
TNA
#CoveredCalls – Selling the weekly at 50ma/200ma resistance…
Bought to Close TNA AUG 02 2019 60.0 Call @ .06 (sold for 2.52)
Sold TNA AUG 09 2019 59.0 Call @ 1.56
REGN
#CoveredCalls – Earnings next week so selling just outside the expected move. I’ll adjust down if needed prior to the announcement.
Bought to Close REGN AUG 02 2019 312.5 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.30)
Sold REGN AUG 09 2019 325.0 Call @ 2.45
SPX
BTC 2850/2900 put spread that expires today at 1.15, I sold it yesterday at 1.40 so happy to be out of it. I still have Monday and Wednesday to worry about. I don’ t have large positions so I can roll them next week.
Econ Calendar for week of 8/5/19
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=5&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
A TRADE: Getting back into GOOS
GOOS BTO STOCK, A little at a time @43.60, 43.69, 44.04
STO ANET Jan17’20 185 PUT…
STO ANET Jan17’20 185 PUT 5.50
UVXY call spread
Sold $UVXY 9/20 40/50 bear call spread @ 1.28
XBI
#ShortrPuts – Adding one here…
Sold XBI SEP 20 2019 80.0 Put @ 2.00
DRIP up
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DRIP Sept 130 call for 6.40. Highest strike.
SPX
BTC August 2, 2800/2840 put spread at .05, sold at .60 cents. I may have to roll some other put spreads but want to see if we can bounce later today.
SPX aggressive
#SPX1dte Missed my chance yesterday but trying with an aggressive stance today:
Sold $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 10.30. Looking for a sharp move down today, or coming days. I will not be waiting for expiration, and will take profits when it looks like we’re due for a bounce.
SWK hammered
(see what I did there?)
#Earnings Was early assigned on $SWK, so I exited long puts and stock for the same $2 loss I was facing if the condor had stayed in tact.
Sold the 148/150/152.5/155 condors for 1.30 last Friday, as a roll from earnings put spread. This increases my loss by .70 more, but I’m through with revenge trading for now.
SPX 1-dte put side closed
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 2nd 2880/2860 put spread for .30. Condors sold yesterday for .95.
Not waiting for puts to expire in this environment. The 3010/3030 call side should expire, though.
SQ-down big this morning
SQ-down big this morning
July Jobs Report
#Jobs — matching estimates for a change
+164,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 165K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.0%, down by 0.2
Wages up 0.3%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 63.0%, up 0.1
(Total labor force came in at a record-high 163.4 million)
June revised down from 224K to 193K
May revised down from 72K to 62K
Another warning
#VIXindicator I began to doubt it would show its stuff on day one, but the Downside Warning came through today, and a second warning fired at the close.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 2870/2890-3010/3030 condors for .95, IV: 18.99%, SPX 2958.
DRIP adding to Dec
Sold $DRIP 12/20 130 call @ 13.00. New highest strike.
VXX puts
Bought $VXX 8/16 26/22 bear put spread @ 1.91. Will look to take this off for near 3.00, hopefully soon if volatility retreats.
SPY
#ShortPuts – First sale in what I’m hoping will be a long term position. Been holding well over half my cash to start easing into this one. First sale down near the 200ma. VTI is probably a slightly better return but I prefer the liquidity. Now just need a chance to add a few more times.
Sold SPY SEP 20 2019 280.0 Put @ 2.96
7.8% annulaized if held to expiration…
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Sold UVXY SEP 20 2019 45.0/55.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .83
SPX
STO August 2, 2800/2840 put spread at .60 cents.
STX
#Earnings #ShortPuts – Earnings tomorrow but I’m going out to Sep for safety. Divvy yield of 6.42% at a basis of 39.20. Trade itself makes 14.9% annualized if held to expiration.
Sold STX SEP 20 2019 40.0 Puts @ .80
#xop
bto aug 9/25 call @ .08
looking to btc for .75
when /cl move back to $58.00 ish
SQ Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – With the little pullback and spike in volatility taking a shot at tomorrow.
Sold SQ AUG 2 2019 76.0/83.0/84.0 Jade Lizards @ 1.31
DRIP
#ContangoETFs – Oil imploding but DRIP still below yesterday’s high. That’s how it’s supposed to work!
New VIX highs
And SPX just notched below yesterday’s low.
If only I’d waited…
BREAKING: Stocks slide from highs of the day as Trump tweets that while China talks continue, U.S. will put 10% tariff on remaining $300B of goods starting Sept. 1 https://t.co/jn8limUSe7 pic.twitter.com/OAMfdBxJwB
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) August 1, 2019
#earnings #jadelizard SQ
Sold Aug. 16, 75/83/83.50 jade lizard for 1.22, a little risky.
SPX call spread closed
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Closed $SPX Aug 7th 3025/3050 call spreads for 6.75. Sold earlier for 5.50. Action is not bearish so I’m getting out with only a 1.25 loss rather than waiting for it to get worse. I will wait for bearish action to become obvious or to see if signal is nullified.
#tastytradefollow #shortputs HAL
Sold Sept. 20, 22.50 put for 1.53.
A TRADE:
YETI BTO STOCK 33.17. To cover 33.5 calls expiring tomorrow.
Sold ANET
#Earnings Sold $ANET Aug 2nd 255/265-290/292.5 broken-wing condor for 3.80. #BrokenWingCondor
ANET earnings analysis
#Earnings $ANET reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 2, 2019 AC -10.43%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +9.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +6.97%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC +3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC +18.85%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +1.49%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.33%
Avg (+ or -) 9.53%
Bias 2.27%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 278.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 253.96 to 302.04
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 251.52 to 304.48
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.4%): 223.98 to 332.02
Based on DOWN max only (-19.0%): 225.24
Open to requests for other symbols.
OLED earnings analysis
#Earnings $OLED reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 2, 2019 AC +8.76%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +23.03%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -20.50% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 9, 2018 AC +13.54%
May 3, 2018 AC +12.43%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -15.81%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +9.52%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -1.30%
May 4, 2017 AC +23.87% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +20.08%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +2.98%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -8.01%
Avg (+ or -) 13.32%
Bias 5.72%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 217.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 193.58 to 240.42
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 188.10 to 245.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.0%): 165.20 to 268.80
Based on DOWN max only (-20.5%): 172.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
TRADES:
GOOS BTO STOCK @47.45 Not holding over earnings next week.
YETI STO 8/2/19 33.5 CALLS @.50 Expires tomorrow. May add more if price holds.
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Abiding by the downside warning that there will be a pullback, and waited to hit 3,000 to sell, as it could work as resistance again.
Sold $SPX Aug 7th 3025/3050 call spreads for 5.50. I’ll be watching this closely, in case the signal is a false alarm.
SQ earnings analysis
#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 AC -7.98%
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +2.42%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC +1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC +0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC +8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +8.42%
Avg (+ or -) 6.27%
Bias 2.66%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 82.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.22 to 87.78
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 76.86 to 87.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.0%): 70.50 to 93.50
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 74.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
UBER closed
#Earnings #Rolling #ShortStrangles
BTC $UBER Aug 2nd 41 put for .05. Leaving the call to expire.
41/47 strangles sold for .85 on July 12th. This was my fourth strangle and has me breaking even from busted earnings long straddle. UBER is definitely NOT a mover. I’ll wait for earnings and then consider whether to keep the strangles as an ongoing strategy.
Closing SHOP
#Earnings Bought to close $SHOP 275/300-330/332.5 Broken-Wing Condors for 1.90. Sold yesterday for 4.50.
I left the long 275 put in place, since it has no bid and thus may have prevented a fill. Fill price is .60 better than if I had allowed call side to expire ITM.
Options Bistro 