https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/11/oracle-releases-earnings-a-day-earlier-than-expected-stock-drops.html
Monthly Archives: September 2019
UBER strangle
#PerpetualRollingStrangles.
BTC $UBER Sept 13th 32.5/38 strangles for .15. Sold for 1.12 on 8/20.
STO $UBER Oct 4th 31/37 strangles for .90
SPX 7-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 18th 2885/2910-3045/3070 condors for 2.65, IV 12.53%, SPX 2991. Replaces the 7-dte I closed this morning. My approach on these is to sell one, with sort deltas at .10, on any day that I cannot sell a 1-dte. So normally, Mondays and Wednesdays. I stop if SPX comes within half of the expected move. So, on this one, expected move is 43.00, so I would stop if we got within 21.50 of either short strike. But that expected move will drop each day.
#shortcallspreads TSLA Sold Oct. 4,…
#shortcallspreads TSLA
Sold Oct. 4, 275/290 for 1.45.
I have once again proven…
I have once again proven my inability to time the market. Yesterday converted a bunch of ATM and ITM XBI puts on a ladder to #fuzzy to avoid the increasing margin. Of course it was up 2+ points yesterday and another 1.5 today. Will manage as #fuzzy. I had already rolled several times and converted to #jadelizard but was still facing increasing margin requirement.
Cost basis 13.80 on 20 lots and already rolled next week 78 up to Oct 11 80 for 1.07 credit so 10 lots at 12.73 but have until Dec 2021 to manage. These are on the put side. LEAPS at 80 strike, shorts at 78, 79.5, and 80 now.
TSLA
TRADES:
RAD STO 8/20/19 9.5 PUTS ITM @.53
CLDR BTO STOCK @9.14
STNE STO 9/20/19 32.0 CALLS @.70
OSTK BTO STOCK @23.24 On the P&F Chart, it gave a buy signal when it broke 23.0, a DOUBLE TOP.
#earnings #closing ANET August 1,…
August 1, sold a 230/270/272.50 jade lizard with a long 210 put for protection, making it an iron condor. ANET dropped about 60 points over the next 2 weeks. I let the short call spread expire, rolled the put spread and sold another call spread. ANET is finally slightly over 240 today, closed the position for a gain.
#ironcondor SHOP #tastytradefollow Sold Oct….
#ironcondor SHOP
#tastytradefollow Sold Oct. 18, 275/300/405/430 for 5.60. SHOP is around 340.
#closing MAT July 31, 2017…
#closing MAT
July 31, 2017 I sold a 20 straddle in MAT and was assigned. I’ve been playing with MAT ever since, and now declare victory, closing the position for about a $50 profit after numerous adjustments.
ROKU-you’re next.
SPX 7-dte closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Sept 13th 2870/2895-3035/3060 condors for .45. Sold Friday for 2.45.
SPX roll
#SPX1dte. Since the S&P popped much higher at the close, I had to roll tomorrow’s spread.
BTC $SPX Sept 11th 2990/3010 call spreads for 1.65. Sold for 1.10 90 minutes earlier.
STO $SPX Sept 11th 2920/2940-3005/3025 condors for .675 (avg price).
So if it expires, my total credit will be +0.125. Bummer.
RH trade
#Earnings. Bought to open $RH Sept 13th 155/157.5 strangle fo 14.60. This needs about a 10% move to breakeven, and it has done that or more 10 of the last 12 quarters. Still, it’s expensive so only a 1-l0t.
Reducing NUGT position
Bought to close $NUGT 9/20 39 calls @ .47. Sold for 1.46 on 7/10.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 11th 2905/2925-2990/3010 condors for 1.10, IV: 10.83%, SPX 2963
OSTK
#CoveredCalls
Roll up and back $OSTK 9/20 17.5 calls for 9/13 21.5 calls @3.20 – basis now 18.50.
Busy this morning, so I’m tardy posting.
.
GOOS BTO STOCK @41.23 & 41.36
OSTK BTO STOCK @20.71 & 21.14
OSTK STO 9/20/19 21.5 & 22.0 CALLS @1.02 & .90
OSTK STO 9/13/19 21.5 CALLS @.55
OSTK STO 9/13/19 21.0 CALLS @.90
GOOS BTO STOCK @41.23 & 41.36
CLDR BTO STOCK @9.13
Closing TLT
Bought to close $TLT 9/20 147/152 bear call spread @ .15. Sold for 1.30 on 8/14.
AMD
Roll $AMD 34 Sep-20-2019 #shortputs for 34 Oct-18-2019 @+0.4. Basis now $31.37. Stock at 30.18.
#tastytradefollow UVXY Sold Oct. 18,…
#tastytradefollow UVXY
Sold Oct. 18, 17 lp/27/sp/27lc/34sc for 1.10
EXAS
STO October 18, 95 puts at 2.15 with stock at 105 and earnings on October 28
MEI
#coveredcalls
Rolled $MEI 35 Sept 20 2019 Calls for Oct 18 2019 35 @+.70.
DRIP
BTC Dec. 115 calls at 8.80 this morning. I should have waited but happy to be out of that trade for a .30 cent loss.
RH earnings analysis
#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 12, 2019 AC +15.82%
March 28, 2019 AC -21.96%
Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75% Biggest UP
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69% Biggest DOWN
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%
Avg (+ or -) 18.51%
Bias 5.37%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 152.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.01 to 168.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 124.27 to 180.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.8%): 84.26 to 220.74
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 113.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
/NG BOIL UNG
Maybe put these back on the radar…
SHOP put spread
Borrowing an idea from @jsd501
Sold $SHOP 10/18 325/315 bull put spread @ 2.41
SPX 7-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 16th 2875/2900-3025/3050 for 2.25.
Expiring: Sept 9th, 2925/2945-3010/3025 condors, sold Friday for .85
CTRP earnings analysis
#Earnings $CTRP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 22, 2019 AC -3.18%
March 4, 2019 AC +19.77% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -19.01% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 5, 2018 AC +5.43%
May 22, 2018 AC +3.98%
March 14, 2018 AC -1.94%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.29%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -2.40%
May 10, 2017 AC -3.52%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +1.44%
Nov. 23, 2016 AC +9.80%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC +3.40%
Avg (+ or -) 6.35%
Bias 0.96%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 31.56 to 37.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 32.31 to 36.69
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.8%): 27.68 to 41.32
Based on DOWN max only (-19.0%): 27.94
Open to requests for other symbols.
DRIP dropped
#ContangoETFs. BTC $DRIP Sept 20th 115 calls for .40. Sold for 3.60 on July 25th.
Closing some more DRIP
Bought to close 10/18 130 call @ 2.55.
Position is a rollout:
Original sale 9/20 115 call @ 3.50 on 7/25
Rolled up and out to 10/18 130 call @ 1.21 credit on 8/27
Total credit taken in: 4.71. Cost to close: 2.55. Profit: 2.16.
I’m still short Dec 115 and 130 calls.
SHOP
STO October 18, 325 put @ 8.30
SQ ULTA
#CoveredCalls – Still digging out…
Sold SQ SEP 27 2019 63.0 Calls @ 1.43
Bought to Close ULTA SEP 13 2019 265.0 Call @ .05 (sold for 2.80)
Sold ULTA SEP 27 2019 242.5 Call @ 2.45
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Bought to Close UVXY SEP 20 2019 45.0/55.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .06 (sold for .93 average)
Closing SHOP
Bought to close $SHOP 9/20 420/430 bear call spread @ .40. Sold for 2.36 on 8/28.
SHOP
#ShortPuts – Thanks @jsd501 for the idea.
Sold SHOP SEP 27 2019 325.0 Put @ 4.40
SOXL
#ShortPuts – Forgot I had this order in but I’ll take it. Ready for the next implosion…
Bought to Close SOXL SEP 20 2019 140.0 Put @ 1.00 (sold for 10.30)
LABU
Assigned on various lots over the weekend on #pietrades. STO the 35, 35.5 and 36 cc for 2.8, 2.75 and still waiting on the 36 fill. Regardless brings CB to 34.80, 34.70 and under 35 for the final.36 filled for 2.70. CB 34.85.
#closing #earnings SPLK August 21,…
SHOP
STO October 18, 345 put @ 11.50 with the stock at 368
UVXY
BTC $UVXY 9/20/2019 45/55 #BuCS @0.05.
ISRG NVDA SQ TNA
#CoveredCalls – On the road all day Friday but did get a couple fills…
ISRG:
Bought to Close ISRG SEP 6 2019 465.0/495.0/500.0 Jade Lizard @4.87 (sold for 5.50)
NVDA:
Rolled NVDA SEP 06 2019 152.5 Call to OCT 18 2019 155.0 Call @ .25 debit
SQ:
Bought to Close SQ SEP 06 2019 64.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for 2.55)
TNA:
Rolled TNA SEP 06 2019 52.5 Calls to SEP 20 2019 53.5 Calls @ .76 credit
Closing the remaining pre-split DRIP
Took the opportunity to get out of the remaining contracts at a little better than 50% of the profit. Don’t want to take a chance of another spike combined with low liquidity of these contracts.
Bought to close 9/20 21 calls (equivalent of post-reverse split 105) @ .75. Sold for 1.55 on 5/29.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 2925/2945-3010/3025 condors for .85, IV 7.14%, SPX 2981.
Volatility really drains quickly after we pass 3pm ET. I looked at this only 30 minutes earlier and it was going for 1.10.
OXY
9/6…BTC OXY 20 SEP 19 45/46/42.5 #jadelizard @.76….STO 8/23 @1.21…Thanks @thomberg1201 for the idea
Econ Calendar week of 9/9/19
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=9&month=9&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
SPX 7-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Sep 13th 2870/2895-3035/3060 condors for 2.45, IV 12.52%, SPX 2979.
Rolling ROKU
With the short calls breached, rolled the $ROKU 9/20 170/180 bear call spread out to October for a credit. Up 10 points on the call spread and added a put spread with the short strike at 15 delta. Position still leaning quite short with the short calls at 43 delta.
BTC 9/20 170/180 bear call spread
STO 10/18 180/190 bear call spread
STO 10/18 140/130 bull put spread
Overall credit for the roll: .54
Closing ULTA
Bought to close $ULTA 9/20 210/220/260/270 iron condor @ 1.10. Sold for 2.60 on 8/30.
TRADES:
STNE BTO STOCK @34.74 An add
GOOS BTO STOCK @40.06 An add
GOOS STO 9/13/19 41.0 PUT @1.50
GOOS STO 9/13/19 42.0 PUT @2.20
YETI BTC 9/13/19 28.5 PUT @.30 STO @1.20
OSTK
Rolled 9/6/2019 16.5 calls for 9/20/2016 17.5 calls @0.55 – my basis is now 15.3.
The stock popped up to ~16.93 today.
#earnings #closing LULU Bought Sept….
SPX 1-dte
Sold BuPS 2935/2930 at 0.25 expiring on 9/9/2019
Sold BuPS 2920/2890 at 0.45 expiring on 9/9/2019
#rolling #coveredcalls WDC Rolled ITM…
Rolled ITM 55 calls from Sept. 6 to Oct. 18 for .97 each, holding through another .50 dividend on October 3 unless there is assignment, stock is at 61.
LULU
August Jobs Report
#Jobs — falling a bit short short
+130,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 150K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, unchanged as expected
U6 unemployment at 7.2%, up by 0.2
Wages up 0.4%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, up 0.2
July revised down from 164K to 159K
June revised down from 193K to 178K
Rolls and adjusting
Last 2 weeks just adjusted several puts that went ITM from all the tweets.
Anyway, showing some profits this week so rolling and resetting.
/ES hedges closed for a $230 loss. Considering they cost $2398 they did their job. Kept me in trades and generated some cash on the first twitter drop. Reset to 106 DTE at the 2690/2700 back ratio, short 2:4 long for $3225. Hope I don’t need them but if so the lottery ticket will pay for future hedges. It was cheaper today with the VIX drop.
#pietrades XBI ladder at the 78/80/82 strikes. Rolled the 80 down to 79 and out 22 DTE for 1.19. Total credit 1.45 so cost 77.60 if assigned (include commisions). The other are 81.77 and 77.60.
JPM 106 puts closed for 0.15 or 1.19 profit per contract.
IBB STO 99 22 DTE put for 1.00.
LABU 3 lots at the 38 strikes will take assignment and convert to CC true #pietrade style. Spreads were too wide to roll since really close to ATM.
#fuzzy
EOG 85/74.5 and 75/75 puts rolled and cost basis now 24.19. Not the best candidate for LEAPs as the long options were expensive but saved some bacon.
GILD 65/65 will roll next week. CB 1.97. 2 more rolls should be 100% returns and free trade after that. Good until 2021. This was also a recovery from when it was closer to 80 so not a bad recovery.
GILD 65/65 rolled for credit, now free trade. Have 0.39 credit per contract. The other 2 batches in this account are 2.28 and 6.08 debits.
LNG 60/60 put spread CB 9.30. Will roll in 1-2 weeks.
XBI 80/80 calls at 2.13
XBI 80/85 at 0.77 credit per contract (free trade :)). Still have to 2021 to keep selling against it or just sit on the long calls if it starts going up again.
80/83 at 6.00. Cost basis was 11.63 and started 6/21 so 51.5% return since June 21 this year. I think #fuzzy LEAP spreads are the clear winners for smaller accounts. But certain names trade better than others. You want to buy as cheap a LEAP as you can find then sell expensive weekly options against it.
LNG 65/65/61.5/59.5 down to 8.66. Converted about 3 weeks ago when a bunch of puts went deep ITM. Excellent return here as well, initial cost was 11.12 so 33% in 3 weeks.
Trade smart!
#earnings ZM Sold Sept. 20…
#earnings ZM
Sold Sept. 20 #jadelizard for.3.38, 85/93.50/94
Bought Sept. 1370/80 long put spread for 1.20
Low VIX today, Jobs Report tomorrow
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 6th 2910/2930-3015/3045 condors for .85 and .90. IV 12.58%, SPX 2980
#shortputs WORK Sold Sept. 20,…
#shortputs WORK
Sold Sept. 20, 29 put for .95
SPX 1dte
Options Trade expiration 9-6-19
SPX bull put credit, sell 2920 put, buy 2900 put, premium=0.35
SPX bull put credit, sell 2930 put, buy 2915 put, premium=0.45
AMZN bull put credit, sell 1800 put, buy 1795 put, premium=0.20-0.25
GOOGL bull put credit, sell 1185 put, buy 1180 put, premium=0.20
SPX spread stopping
#SPX1dte Today’s rally already blew past my stop for the call side of the $SPX Sep 11th 2825/2845-2995/3015 condor, sold yesterday for 2.20. I closed the put spread for .20 and looking to close the call side (at a loss) before the close.
Posted this as a comment…
#earnings LULU Sold Sept. 20,…
#earnings LULU
Sold Sept. 20, 170/187.50/190 jade lizard for 4.85
Bought Sept. 13, 155/167.50 for 1.90 for protection on the downside.
Thanks for the data Jeff.
NVDA
BTC $NVDA 140/150 #BuPS @0.12. Was STO 8/27 @1.37.
ROKU call spread
Coming off its all time high yesterday, down today in a strong market. Sold $ROKU 9/20 170/180 bear call spread @ 2.80.
#closing OXY Aug. 21 sold…
#closing OXY
Aug. 21 sold a #jadelizard for 1.38, bought today for .83
LULU earnings analysis
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 12, 2019 AC +2.12%
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
Avg (+ or -) 11.86%
Bias 3.97%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 185.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 167.54 to 202.46
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 163.05 to 206.95
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 141.65 to 228.35
Based on UP max only (+16.3%): 215.17
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1dte stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 4th 2935 calls for 2.50, a couple minutes before the close. Condors sold for 1.60 yesterday.
Also, after the bell: Sold $SPX Sept 11th 2825/2845-2995/3015 condors for 2.20.
Closing some pre-split DRIP
Back in May, before the 1:5 reverse split I sold some Sep 105 calls (which are now DRIP1 9/20 21 calls). Bought to close @ 1.50 (the lot that I sold for 2.20). Still sitting on some that I sold for 1.55. Another down move in the next couple days and I’ll take that off too.
PANW earnings analysis
#Earnings $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 29, 2019 AC -5.11%
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +8.20%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC -13.24%
Aug. 30, 2016 AC -7.16%
Avg (+ or -) 8.19%
Bias -0.47%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 200.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 184.58 to 215.42
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 183.62 to 216.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 151.70 to 248.30
Based on UP max only (+17.2%): 234.40
Open to requests for other symbols.
#longstock VET Bought 100 shares…
#longstock VET
Bought 100 shares of VET for 14.53, yielding 14%, beaten up oil stock.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4288773-monthly-dividends-14-percent-yield-vermilion-energy-unique-opportunity?ifp=0
KHC
#ShortPuts – Losing interest in this one so getting out with tiny winner.
Bought to Close KHC SEP 06 2019 26.5 Puts @ .64 (sold for .70)
REGN ULTA
#CoveredCalls – Trading from the southeast corner of Lake Okeechobee. One of my stranger places for this. 🙂 🙂
REGN:
Bought to Close REGN SEP 06 2019 302.5 Call @ .10 (sold for 4.90)
Sold REGN SEP 20 2019 292.5 Call @ 4.90
ULTA: Doubling up on the sales with a stop on the last one.
Sold ULTA SEP 20 2019 250.0 Call @ 3.00
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 4th 2825/2845-2935/2955 condors for 1.60. IV: 15.90%, SPX 2899.
Expiring: Sept 3rd 2820/2840-2975/2995 condors, sold Friday for 1.60.
Options Bistro 