LK Put Rolled / NUGT Call Closed / LULU MCD LRCX Spreads Closed

#shortputs
$LK BTC 12/13 31.50 put and STO 12/20 31 put at additional .15.

#coveredcalls
$NUGT BTC 31 call at .10. STO at 1.26

#bups #becs #bucs
$LULU BTC 12/20 185/195 BUPS at .30. STO on 11/11 for 2.60. Symmetry$ STO 11/11 BTC 12/12
$LULU BTC 12/20 235/240 BECS at .30. STO on 11/16 for 1.20.
$MCD BTC 12/20 185/190 BUPS at .20. STO on 11/1 for 1.25.
$LRCX STC 12/20 285/295 BUCS at 2.50. BTO on 10/30 for 3.40.

COST

STO 255/325 strangle for January 17, at 1.18

COST earnings analysis

#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 3, 2019 AC +0.92%
May 30, 2019 AC -0.81%
March 7, 2019 AC +5.08% Biggest UP
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%

Avg (+ or -) 3.35%
Bias -1.10%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 297.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 287.83 to 307.17
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 287.53 to 307.47
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-8.6%): 271.97 to 323.03
Based on UP max only (+5.1%): 312.61

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 13th 3090/3110-3205/3225 condors for .80. IV: 12.95%, SPX 3167

CMG

BTC $CMG 8/13 825/835 #BeCS. Sold 11/29 as a 795/805 #BeCS. Several adjustments later, overall loss is $4.72.

TRADES:

LK BTC 12/13/19 28.5 PUTS @.05
STNE STO 12/20/19 PUTS @1.80

LULU

BTC $LULU 205/215 Dec 13 #BuPS @0.14. STO late yesterday @1.5
Holding $LULU 200/210 Dec 20 #BuPS STO @1.57, currently @0.425. Target is 0.22.

#earnings #closing AEO Tuesday sold…

#earnings #closing AEO

Tuesday sold an iron fly for 1.33, bought today for 1.06.

Thanks for the data Jeff

SPX calls stopped

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 16th 3200/3225 call spreads for 1.80. Condors sold for 1.75 on Monday. I’ll look to close the puts before the weekend.

ADBE earnings analysis

#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Sept. 17, 2019 AC -1.74%
June 18, 2019 AC +5.21% Biggest UP
March 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%
March 16, 2017 AC +3.80%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -1.47%

Avg (+ or -) 3.27%
Bias -0.25%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 304.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 293.08 to 314.92
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 295.02 to 314.98
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.3%): 282.80 to 327.20
Based on UP max only (+5.2%): 320.89

Open to requests for other symbols.

LULU Earnings

#ShortPuts – Bought to Close LULU DEC 13 2019 217.5 Put @ .95 (sold for 3.10)

Green?

Wow is that background green.

TRADES:

BTO CLVS STOCK @12.08 &12.40 A little.
STO STNE 12/20/19 NTM 40.0 CALLS @.85
STO CLVS 12/20/19 NTM 13.0 CALLS @.60
STO CLVS 12/20/19 13.5 CALLS @75

AVGO Earnings

#ShortPuts – I may throw a call spread out there eventually to turn it into a Jade Lizard…haven’t decided yet. For now selling at the expected move and just above the 50ma. Going to next week for a little more premium. Not a big fan of a put sale on this rally but having trouble finding anything to do.

Sold AVGO DEC 20 2019 310.0 Put @ 3.30

SPX 1-dte

SPX 12/13/2019 BuPS, sell 3115 put, buy 3110 put for 0.25

AVGO earnings analysis

#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Sept. 12, 2019 AC -3.41%
June 13, 2019 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
March 14, 2019 AC +8.23%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC +8.49% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 AC +0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC +4.90%

Avg (+ or -) 4.24%
Bias 0.91%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 327.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 312.80 TOO 342.20
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 313.61 TO 341.39
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 299.70 TO 355.30
Based on DOWN max only (-5.6%): 309.29

Open to requests for other symbols.

#assignment ZM Sept. 5 sold…

#assignment ZM
Sept. 5 sold an iron condor/ jade lizard for earnings, the short put was at 85, had an 80 put for some downside protection. I closed that too early. Through rolling etc and selling a Dec. 20, 65.50 call, I have a cost basis of 72.25. ZM stock is at 62.28.

AEO closed

#Earnings BTC $AEO Dec 13th 15 put for .50. #LongStraddle sold for 1.35 on Tuesday. Closed for a total of .55.

DRIP

#BearCallSpreads – Sold off hard to support. Book ’em and wait for the next rally…

Bought to Close DRIP JAN 17 2020 120.0/130.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .41 (sold for 1.45)

Downside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator The Downside Warning is officially canceled as the SPX notched a new all-time high. However, this high was driven by a tweet that we humans understand, based on recent history, really doesn’t mean anything. The algos respond and drive us higher. If no trade deal is reached by Sunday, or there’s no agreement to delay the tariffs, we could re-enter a Downside Warning quickly and easily.

My opinion: I don’t think a trade deal will be reached until after the election. However, I do think the tariffs will be delayed. I don’t know how that will affect the markets, but Monday we could be anywhere.

LULU

#ShortPuts – Early on this one. Still holding the 217.5 for tomorrow…

Sold LULU DEC 27 2019 217.5 Put @ 2.80

WDC

#ShortPuts – Bought to Close WDC DEC 20 2019 45.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for .71)

CIEN Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – Getting away to the upside so taking a small winner and moving on…

Bought to Close CIEN DEC 13 2019 33.5/37.0/38.0 Jade Lizards @ .81 (sold for 1.09)

Looked great until the conference call started…not sure what was said.

LULU Earnings

BTC LULU Dec13 215 Put @ 1.15. Opened yesterday afternoon at 2.28

#earnings #closing LULU Bought Jan….

#earnings #closing LULU

Bought Jan. 17, 185/280 strangle for 1.20, sold yesterday for 2.00.
Thanks for the data Jeff