ULTA Earnings

#CoveredCalls #Earnings – This should almost guarantee blowout earnings. Rolling my covered call down into the money for additional downside protection…

Rolled ULTA DEC 6 2019 240.0 Call to DEC 6 2019 230.0 Call @ 4.91 credit (10.02 total now)

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3055/3075-3145/3165 condors for .80. IV: 10.10%, SPX 3115.

STNE Rolled Put

#shortputs
$STNE BTC 12/6 40.50 put and STO 12/13 40 put at .20 debit.

BX Covered Calls Rolled

#coveredcalls
$BX BTC 12/13 53.50 calls and STO 12/20 54 calls at .01 credit. Stock currently at 53.52.

$SPX Campaign Call Side Closed

#spxcampaign
BTC 12/9 3180/3205 BECS at .05. STO at .41. Put side still open

Thank you @jeffcp66

SHOP

BTC December 250 puts at .05 and sold the February 250 puts at 3.00

SPX

STO Dec 6 IC 3150/3155 3075/3070 $0.35 cr

SPX Closed

#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 12/9 3140/3165 BECS at 1.50 STO at 2.50 on 12/4.

TQQQ Long Leaps Closing Down

#longleaps
$TQQQ BTO 1/17/2020 66.67 calls on 11/12/2018.

Sold calls against and rolled 42 times the last eleven months.
Closed out 60% of position this morning, leaving me with 4 long calls bought at 8.20 and
current price of 11.04. I have stop in at 9.95.

The six closed leaps yielded a 64% gain over the eleven months. 13.32 proceeds per contract versus the 8.20 per contract purchase price.

Thank you @jeffcp66 for the trade and the inspiration to keep rolling. You will forever be given the attribution for this proverb – A Rolling LEAP Can Gather Dough!

#shortcalls CPRI Sold Jan. 17,…

#shortcalls CPRI

Sold Jan. 17, 40 call for 1.14

Take FIVE

#Earnings BTC $FIVE Dec 6th 115 puts for .05. The 115/113 spreads sold for .763 (avg price) yesterday. Holding long 113 puts, expiration lottery ticket.

ULTA earnings analysis

#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 29, 2019 AC -29.55% Biggest DOWN
May 30, 2019 AC +1.50%
March 14, 2019 AC +8.28% Biggest UP
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.12%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC +7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13%
May 25, 2017 AC +3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC +4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%

Avg (+ or -) 7.48%
Bias -2.22%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 242.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 219.79 to 264.21
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 223.90 to 260.10
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (29.6%): 170.49 to 313.51
Based on UP max only (+8.3%): 262.04

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Fuzzy VXX Charlie McElligot at…

#Fuzzy VXX

Charlie McElligot at Nomura is issuing a lot of gamma red flag warnings for a vol shock. What the heck…a nice time to dust off a fuzzy in VXX.

Dec 20 Bot 17.5 call
Dec 20 Sold 17.5 put
Dec 20 Bot 15.5 put
Net price: .18 debit

I would guess vol stays steady here due to upcoming tariff increases on Dec 15, so I think not much decay on this–it’s a cheap way to get on some long gamma.

High FIVE

BTC $FIVE 100/110 Dec 06 #BuPS @0.05. STO yesterday @1.75.

Yes, I could have let it expire tomorrow, but I’d rather lock in the gain and get the margin back.

Thanks Jeff for Data!

SIG closed

#Earnings BTC $SIG Dec 6th 17 #LongStraddle for 1.75 (1.50 calls, .25 puts). Sold yesterday for 2.86.