ROKU Rolled

#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 12/13 145 calls and STO 12/13 147 calls at 1.47 debit. Stock at 150.58. If called away I would gain .53 on the 1.47 “investment”. I will try the roller coaster a few more times before stock taken away, I think.

SPX closed

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Dec 4th 3120 calls for .20. Condors sold yesterday for .80.

#shortputspread HD Sold Jan. 17,…

#shortputspread HD

Sold Jan. 17, 195/205 for 1.45. I’m count on HD having bottomed after earnings at about 213.

RH Earnings

#IronFlies #Earnings – With over a 20 dollar move expected this has very little if any chance of working. Playing it as a lottery ticket out of boredom. Let’s see a 200 pin on this on Friday. 🙂 🙂

Only filled on one so far…

Sold RH DEC 6 2019 195/200/200/205 Iron Fly @ 4.80

Risk 20 to make 480 (now that’s a lottery ticket!)

SIG alert

#Earnings Sold to Open $SIG Dec 6th 17 #LongStraddle for 2.86. Stock must move over 16.7% to become a loser. Avg move has been 14.57%.

#earnings #jadelizard FIVE Sold Dec….

#earnings #jadelizard FIVE

Sold Dec. 20, 105/118/120 for 2.50.

Thanks for the earnings data Jeff

SHOP put spread

Sold $SHOP 12/20 345/335 bull put spread @ 1.92. Will get out of it if today’s move doesn’t hold.

FIVE earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 28, 2019 AC +6.27%
June 5, 2019 AC -1.00%
March 27, 2019 AC +8.15%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%

Avg (+ or -) 6.88%
Bias 5.62%, robustly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 117.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 107.13 to 126.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 108.95 to 125.05
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 91.42 to 142.58
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 112.96

Open to requests for other symbols.

#bups

A TRADE:

AMRN BTO STOCK @22.68
CLDR BTC 10.5 112/6/19 CALLS Earnings after market today.

SIG earnings analysis

#Earnings $SIG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Sept. 5, 2019 BO +26.88% Biggest UP
June 6, 2019 BO -1.23%
April 3, 2019 BO +0.54%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -18.04%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO +23.84%
June 6, 2018 BO +18.39%
March 14, 2018 BO -20.22%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -30.39% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +16.66%
May 25, 2017 BO -7.75%
March 9, 2017 BO +8.72%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +2.14%

Avg (+ or -) 14.57%
Bias 1.63%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 16.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.80 to 19.20
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 14.10 to 18.90
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (30.4%): 11.49 to 21.51
Based on UP max only (26.9%): 20.94

Open to requests for other symbols.