fuzzballl 9:34 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015
Tags: ContangoETFs ( 446 )

DUST

GDX just getting killed…could see a 12 handle soon. Taking the other side of NUGT now. Just adding one to a current position. Will add more if GDX bounces around 13.

Sold 1 DUST JAN 15 2016 22.0 Call @ 1.60

Jeff 9:39 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015

Followed, sort of, STO $DUST Jan 15th 23 call for 1.40, adding to ladder.
- fuzzballl 9:44 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015
  
  GG went long NUGT with covered calls yesterday. LOL no word on a stop loss. Tempted to ask him about it since he’s posted many times about it being a dog.
  - fuzzballl 9:47 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015
    
    Added one more…actually it’s now an unbalanced 22 straddle with a slightly short bias after this sale.
    
    Sold 1 DUST JAN 15 2016 22.0 Call @ 1.65
    - fuzzballl 10:03 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015
      
      Jeez…even when I make a decent trade I suck…LOL
      
      GG response to my DUST trade:
      
      @fuzzball $GDX 1050 level very key support in spot gold; can’t really use regular charts for support and resistance levels in levered ETFs very effectively due to daily tracking error adjustment to NAV and impact of monthly futures roll on NAV whether a plus or minus. Try this instead
      
      https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5
      - Jeff 10:25 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015
        
        Maybe you can ask him why he’s talking about futures roll when $DUST and $GDX are not based on futures. Only the daily tracking errors matter with DUST and $NUGT. Regardless, you can’t win with him. You can only win by trading.
        
        #ContangoETFs
        
        fuzzballl 10:49 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015
        
        LOL…miracles do happen.
        
        @fuzzball $GDX $GLD $GDXJ $NUGT what a super dope I am you’re correct my good sir ; it tracks gold miners ETF ; due to a mining company leverage one would expect these ETFS to be much more volatile than the underlying commodity itself ( times 3 of course); man that bothers me I didn’t know that ; thx for the education ! back to retee! obviously sliced it and hit it OB on this one 🙂
        
        here we go;
        
        Fund Objective
        The Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3x Shares
        seeks daily investment results, before fees
        and expenses, of 300% of the performance
        of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index.
        
        fuzzballl 10:50 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015
        
        Iceman set me straight on these years ago on what they track so thought GG might see the light at some point.
        
        vxxkelly 11:15 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015
        
        I keep looking at the chart for $DUST and just don’t get it. Starting with the $GDX, it is down big since Apr 2012. If you look at the chart of $NUGT it makes perfect sense. But when I look $DUST it should have been going up the whole time, but it is basically flat since April 2012. It just spends most of its time between 15 and 30. Being ultra short something, that is going down and still can’t make money, this thing just doesn’t work. Then out of the blue you can get just rip your face off spikes. If Gold ever did catch a bid in the future and started rising, this is where I would want to be shorting the snot out of calls. If it can’t go up when GDX is going down, then imagine how far down it could go if GDX ever started going up????
        
        fuzzballl 11:23 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015
        
        Funny you should mention that. It’s starting to feel like DUST (and KOLD for that matter) are more like SVXY and NUGT and BOIL are more like UVXY. Posted this on OMM earlier:
        
        —————————————
        
        $GDX $GLD $GDXJ $NUGT – Here’s another interesting tidbit on why I will only short NUGT but I’ll play both sides of DUST:
        
        NUGT Split History Table
        Date Ratio
        04/02/2013 1 for 5
        08/20/2013 1 for 10
        10/01/2015 1 for 10
        
        DUST Split History Table
        Date Ratio
        08/20/2013 2 for 1
        
        As you can see NUGT gets absolutely killed on the rolls but DUST not so much. Same thing comparing BOIL/KOLD, UVXY/SVXY. I’ve learned my lesson on which sides of these to be on. I will never be long term long on NUGT, BOIL, or UVXY and will always short calls when any of these spike. The others I’ll play both sides…even though the drag hurts them as well they tend to recover nicely when conditions change.
  - vxxkelly 10:13 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015
    
    Not the only thing he got wrong yesterday. Here was an exchange in SMM yesterday:
    
    12:59 pm GG $UVXY bear algos just turned on the after burners go baby go small add to long
    
    1:14 pm TraderG $UVXY -its been in a 1.00 range all day – really dead……
    
    1:22 pm GG $UVXY very much disagree lots of little clues in price action today already up over 3% off opening low ; you may want to check out my many posts on same today ….
    
    If you look at the intraday chart, his 12:59 post damn near top ticked it and went straight down from there.
    - fuzzballl 10:15 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015
      
      LOL…I’m not a member over there but thanks for the chuckle. Great entertainment on a slow day!
vxxkelly 9:47 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015

$13 has been support for 5 month’s, multiple bounces. If it drops through, I suspect there will be a bunch of stops get hit and it could really get sporty going south. I’ve got an alert in place on $DUST, if it gets above $20 I’ll be looking at the $3o calls
- fuzzballl 9:48 am on Thursday, December 17, 2015
  
  Agreed…if long term support breaks could see DUST heading for 30 pretty quickly. At least I’ll be out of my 22 puts!

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