#VXXGame #LongPutDiagonals I have a…

#VXXGame #LongPutDiagonals

I have a question about VXX and delta.

During this wild bull market, I’ve been buying SPX calls and VXX puts. I buy the calls at about a 60 delta with a 200ish DTE. On the TOS and TastyWorks platforms, the PITM percentage is similar to delta. I use PITM because several years ago Sosnof made the case PITM is a better estimate for the probability of expiring in-the-money than is delta.

So this brings me to VXX. Delta and PITM are not even close to the same. At 200ish DTE, they are about 25 points apart.

My question is why are PITM and delta so different for VXX, and which is a better estimate of the probability of expiring in-the-money? I ask because it clearly affects strike selection and potentially affects when to roll or close.

SPX puts sold

#SPXcampaign Since today marks a further validation of the Upside Warning on the #VIXindicator, I’m selling an additional aggressive put spread, and holding off on selling new call spreads and an #ITMroll.

Sold $SPX Nov 16th (monthly) 2585/2560 call spreads for 5.10.

#inversecondor

$CVS #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Sold…

$CVS #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Sold 1 CVS NOV 24 2017 65.0 Put @ 1.17. Post earnings trade with a short time frame

STMP

A wild ride today

$CAH $ShortPuts #OptionLadder #FallingKnife -…

$CAH #ShortPuts #OptionLadder #FallingKnife – added a couple of rungs this morning.
Sold 1 CAH MAR 16 2018 52.5 Put @ 1.65
Sold 1 CAH JUN 15 2018 50.0 Put @ 1.70

SVXY

STO December 22, 65 puts @1.15< these are small trades just to keep me in the market and make coffee money.

Told you /CL would move…

Told you /CL would move if i put on a strangle! Now just need to short GILD to make it go back up.

Rolled the 72 DTE /CL 46 put up to 47.5 locking in 600 profit and an extra credit of 0.08.

Leaving there because as soon as it hit 57 sell orders for 7337, 8420, 9000, and 6350 contracts came in and put a cap on the move. At that price I am sure some extra production will come back on line as well.

Commodities follow supply and demand better than stocks and seasonally oil is usually down until the new year. But if we keep moving I will hedge with the futures either way.

Also STO GILD 12/1 76 call at 0.86 dropping cost basis to 77.1. Have a feeling I will be rolling these for a while, still has not found a bottom.

I had thought about adding some puts but under water enough it does not make sense. Sometimes you get to a point where any adjustment is painful. Will just suck it up and roll weekly until even, hopefully won’t take all year.

SPX trades

#SPXcampaign $SPX

Closed on GTC orders:
Nov 8th 2540/2515 put spreads for .20. Originally sold for 2.00
Nov 16th 2465/2440 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Oct 19th.

Closed Nov 13th 2570/2595 call spreads for 16.25. Sold last Monday as part of an #InverseCondor for 23.00. (Leaving the 2590/2565 put spread on for hopeful expiration)
#ITMroll Sold Nov 20th 2575/2600 call spreads for 14.60.

Closed Nov 13th 2540/2565 call spreads for 23.45. Sold last Monday for 20.50.
Not yet rolled

Sold Nov 20th 2585/2560 put spreads for 6.10.

$TSLA #ShortCalls – Bought to…

$TSLA #ShortCalls – Bought to close TSLA Nov 17 2017 500.0 Calls @ 0.01.
Started selling these in May @2.66 and added on in June @ 5.32.

$SPX

STO $SPX Nov 13 $2570/$2565 put spreads @ $0.85 small position

SVXY

STO December 15, 55 puts @.60

UVXY #shortstock #shortputs #shortcalls Last…

UVXY #shortstock #shortputs #shortcalls
Last week was exercised on naked call ($1.25) at $14. Today I elected to cover potential margin call by selling $15 put ($0.73) and buying $19 protective call ($0.13). I think this will mitigate my risks to a low cost worst case $3.15 (19-14-1.25-0.60). However more likely is a small gain if present trends continue $0.85 (14+1.25+0.6-15), and acceptable return. Does anyone see any flaws in plan?

#earnings Anyone interested in CAR-Avis?

#earnings Anyone interested in CAR-Avis?

GUSH

#ContangoETFs Hey @ramie77, since DRIP has dropped, is it time to give GUSH a gander?

GILD

STO March 55 puts @.54

#shortputs #rolling T Rolled Nov….

#shortputs #rolling T

Rolled Nov. 17 35 put to Dec. 15 35 for a .07 credit
Sold Dec. 15 33 put for .90
Stock is at 32.75

Rolling AMZN

Rolled $AMZN Nov 17 1120 covered call up and out to Dec 22 1160 call @ 3.46 credit.

$APC #ShortPuts – Bought to…

$APC #ShortPuts – Bought to close APC Nov 17 2017 40.0 Puts @ 0.01.
Originally sold on 06/07/2017 at 1.16 as a #FallingKnife trade (and I was way early).

$STMP – looks like my…

$STMP – looks like my STMP puts expired just in time. WOW!

Econ Calendar for week of 11/6/17

Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep Bistro features updated.

Screen Shot 2017-11-06 at 5.33.16 AM

Notable Earnings After Close Fri…

Notable Earnings After Close Fri (Last Week)/Before Open Mon:

BAH, BMCH, BSFT, CAH, CCC, CFX, CHH, CRNT, CTLT, CVS, FNV, GTN, HLTH, HSIC, HZNP, JLL, KERX, KORS, KOS, LAMR, LPX, MYL, NXST, ONDK, RBC, SYY, TXMD, WBT

http://bit.ly/2zjNRiS

Notable Earnings After Close Mon/Before Open Tues:

AEL, AGEN, AKCA, AMC, APLE, ASH, ASIX, ATH, ATHM, ATRS, ATSG, BCRX, BKD, BWXT, CAR, CBM, CBOE, CCE, CPE, CRC, CRIS, CROX, DF, DNR, DPLO, DRH, ECYT, EMR, ETSY, FANG, FBP, FMC, FN, FPRX, FRGI, GDDY, HAE, HAIN, HCN, HL, IFF, IONS, IVR, JELD, KND, KNX, LCI, LGIH, LNCE, LXP, MCHP, MTDR, MTW, MZOR, NCMI, NPTN, NS, NSA, NVRO, NVTA, ONCE, OUT, PAA, PAGP, PCLN, PDCE, PGRE, PINC, PNK, PRIM, PTLA, QGEN, RCL, REN, RRGB, RSPP, RWT, SEAS, SINA, SLCA, SMG, SNDR, STAY, SWKS, TA, TAHO, TESO, THC, TLGT, TPR, TRIP, TRUE, TRVN, TSEM, USFD, VERI, VG, VGR, VIRT, VRX, VWR, WB, WLK, WTW, XHR, XLRN, ZAYO, ZIOP

http://bit.ly/2zmlFvF

Notable Earnings After Close Tues/Before Open Wed:

AAOI, AAXN, ACAD, AGU, ALDR, ALNY, AMED, ARNA, AXAS, BEAT, BETR, BR, BTG, BUFF, CARS, CLI, CLR, CNDT, COHR, CRZO, CSRA, CVG, CVNA, DAR, DCP, DEI, DEPO, DIOD, DVA, ECA, EDIT, EGN, EGRX, ELGX, ENR, ETE, ETP, EVTC, EXTR, FOLD, FOSL, FRTA, FTK, G, GDOT, GKOS, GPN, HALO, HII, HPT, HSC, HUM, IAG, ILG, INFI, ITCI, IVC, JAZZ, JKHY, LC, LXRX, MAR, MBI, MCRB, MGM, MGP, MITK, MNKD, MTCH, MXL, MYGN, NEWR, NKTR, OAS, OCUL, OPHT, OR, PCRX, PE, PEIX, PFGC, PLNT, PLUG, PPC, PRI, PRTA, PXLW, REGI, REGN, RIC, RIGL, ROK, RRR, RTRX, RYI, SEE, SITE, SKT, SNAP, SSRM, STKL, STWD, SUN, SYNA, TDS, TGI, TGNA, TSRO, TTWO, TWO, TWOU, VER, VNDA, VSI, VSLR, WEB, WEN, WIX, WMC, WWW, XEC, XOG, ZG, ZGNX, ZNGA

http://bit.ly/2zxrS8N

Notable Earnings After Close Wed/Before Open Thurs:

AFSI, AKAO, ALB, ALRM, AMBC, ANDV, ANDX, ANGI, ATO, AZN, BAM, BLDR, BRKS, BRS, BW, CAPR, CBAY, CJ, CLNS, COLL, COT, COTY, CRL, CSIQ, CSOD, CTL, CTRE, CUI, CXW, DHI, DIN, DISH, DK, DOX, ECR, ELF, ENS, EPC, EPR, ERF, ESNT, FIVN, FLO, FOXA, FSM, GDS, GMED, GOOS, HDSN, HIMX, HOLX, IAC, IMPV, INCR, INFN, INO, INVH, IPXL, JAG, JCI, KGC, KRO, KSS, LAUR, M, MEET, MFC, MGA, MGNX, MHLD, MIME, MNST, NCLH, ODP, OME, OPK, OTIC, PAAS, PEGA, PEGI, PRAA, PRGO, PRTY, PSEC, RGEN, RLJ, RNG, ROKU, RUN, SEDG, SEMG, SFR, SGRY, SLF, SND, SNH, SQ, SRCL, SSNI, TDG, TIME, TK, TOCA, TOO, TRCO, TROX, TRP, TRTN, TTEK, TTI, TU, TWLO, TWNK, UBNT, UGI, VIVO, VSAT, VSM, VSTO, VVV, WAGE, WRD

http://bit.ly/2zzhSMv

Notable Earnings After Close Thurs/Before Open Fri:

AL, AVXS, AYX, BDSI, CAA, CAE, CATB, CBPX, CDNA, CWH, DIS, ENDP, HCC, HK, HTZ, ICHR, JCP, JWN, KLDX, LGF.A, LGND, MSCC, MT, NVDA, NWSA, PBYI, RBA, RDFN, SGMO, SGYP, TPC, TTD, WPM, XON, ZOES