Jan 25 #Fuzzy Land and #PieTrades

Another very nice day in Fuzzy Land here. I feel very balanced in the portfolio right now. Hedges are working on the trouble makers. JNJ–nice move today. EA–moved the wrong way but I’ve learned to stay patient on the earnings trades that have a 100% backtest win rate, and I keep them small. AAPL got cut today, when I ran the backtest on it today it only wins 25% of the time for earnings run up, so I was a goof to even have that trade on. BUT I had a pre-earnings trade on for BA today that ran up big in just a few hours. I’ve got a nice mix of shorts and longs. With volatility up, it’s easy to hedge the Fuzzy Bears with a strike that allows beautiful profit even if runover.

1. Closed the FLIR Earnings Run Up Fuzzy for 47% profit, $415
2. Opened hedged SPY Fuzzy Bear Feb 284/284/285 @ 2.54 Jan31 280 hedge @.53
3. Closed AAPL pre-earnings fuzzy for net $1115 loss….BUT
4. Opened BA pre-earnings fuzzy and closed it 3 hours later for $2100 profit
5. Rolled MU Hedges to next week, and opened a new MU Fuzzy (Mar 43/43/41 for 2.22). I’ve collected a net $4200 in MU hedges…MU can be a little dramatic (like a toddler in a store), but that’s what makes for nice premium to sell for hedges. So MU is now in 3 of my 4 accounts.
6. VIX I compared long calls to a long fuzzy for VIX…remember the grocery store question? ATM Fuzzy costs the same as $2 OTM long calls, with higher deltas on the Fuzzy for better performance. So I opened Mar 21 12/12/11 Fuzzy, unhedged, for 1.57 as an overall hedge. I’d like to layer more of these in as vol/price drops.
7. AMTD, there’s a sell program going on in this ticker, I’ve got lots of cycles in front of this for hedges, so rolled today from 58 to 56 calls. There was a LOT of call buying on this today, probably due to ETFC reporting. I didn’t see the call buying affect price though, like it usually does. It’s sitting on a 50% retracement here. I’m grateful for protective puts + hedges for a nice counterbalance.
8. Added 2 small-lot DIA unhedged fuzzies at the bottom today. Feb 263/263/261 @ 2.45
9. Added MGM pre-earnings run up Fuzzy (early I know) Feb23 36.5/36.5/35 for 1.13
10. Although not technically a fuzzy since it was a synthetic only, I made 422% on a BX-synthetic, buying yesterday at .09 and selling today at .47. 5x my entry price. That was an earnings run up play.

11. PieTrades: so far my only ticker is LMT for this campaign. Sold 327.5 puts on Monday, was able to cover 1/2 of them today for .05. I assume other half tomorrow morning. That will equal $680, thanks @hcgdavis LMT reports Monday morning, so Monday or Tue next week will be good for the next round.