Here’s Dan’s free chart of the day view on the market: http://stockmarketmentor.com/2018/02/looking-for-some-clarity-on-the-sp-action-this-should-help-february-08-2018/
Monthly Archives: February 2018
Trader’s Almanac “December Low” warning
Anyone with this fun little book, go to page 38. Since 1952 there are only two instances where a close below the Dow December low in Q1 did not result in additional down moves, on average another 10%. The December low was 23,921.90–so today we closed below that number.
Does anyone know why the…
Does anyone know why the market goes in the opposite direction as soon as I put a trade on?
Is that a curse? 🙂
Feb 8 Howdy!
Hey everyone, just wanted to pop in and let you know I’m trading VERY small. Just 1-2 lots of #Fuzzy . Mostly shorts. Fuzzies are very expensive now. It helps to hedge them since hedges are also expensive (credit). But hedging slows them down considerably in movement. I like to get out with 50-100% gains. Where I’m doing best now is scalping /NQ.
I’ve mentioned my ” #Augen Spike Code” in the past (From Jeff Augen’s book The Volatility Edge in Options Trading). It translates price action into standard deviations. It helped me find a crash indicator different from what everyone else was viewing. But I also found an important bottom indicator is when there are 3-out of-5 daily bars with 1-standard deviation up moves. .99 doesn’t count, must be over 1.0. Going back in time w/ the indicator I found anything less than 3-in-5 led to shallow false or short term rallies. So on rally days I’m watching and counting those bars.
Sue
Here’s the code if you want it: http://tos.mx/FnguWH
New LOW on SPX and NDX
Not on Dow or RUT
SPX day trade
#SPXcampaign Caught this flush with a short call spread.
Sold to Open $SPX Feb 9th 2630/2655 call spreads for 11.15 at 2:57 ET.
Bought to close for 6.00 at 3:54 ET
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Pulled the plug on this one with the intention to roll later. I feel like we need to test this week’s lows again before we can assume correction is over.
Closed $SPX Mar 9th 2630/2605 put spreads for 9.00. Sold as a 1.5x roll for 2.00 last Friday.
SPX Long Side
Exited the Final of Long side put from my 3 spreads in Jan 16 time frame..This clears out my Pre-sell-off Longs that I held thru the sell off..
STC 2 Mar09 SPX 2650 Long Puts , Bought at 12.40, Sold earlier at the SPX low today for 49.00..
2pm STO Mar 23 2450/2550 BUPS, 25.00/34.10, credit at 9.10
SPX
BTC SPX Feb 9 2645/2640 2.75 loss 260.00
SVXY
#ShortCalls – That’s the last of these. Wish I had more…
Bought to Close SVXY JAN 18 2019 235.0 Calls @ .02 (part of a 25/235 strangles @ 3.90)
SVXY
Starting to get some stock assigned now. My basis on naked puts will be around 97 and spreads around 34. I would assume that SVXY isn’t out of the woods yet so I’m selling at the money calls as long as we’re in backwardation. If they get in trouble then that’s a good thing. Missed the assignment this morning of some so just now sold second batch of calls.
Sold SVXY FEB 16 2018 12.0 Calls @ 1.09
Sold SVXY FEB 23 2018 11.0 Calls @ .94
BABA
#SyntheticStock – Weekly sale…core position is 175 strike in Jan 2020 so lots of time. You can really see the difference in option premium on a lot of these now.
Bought to Close BABA FEB 9 2018 185.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .55)
Sold BABA FEB 16 2018 182.5 Calls @ 1.35
Buying some longer term VXX puts
Defined risk so I don’t have to worry about margin effect.
Bought:
$VXX Jun 15 25 puts @ 1.27
$VXX Sep 20 puts @ 1.30
Once volatility calms down and we go back into contango these should start getting profitable quickly.
XBI
#Fuzzy – BTC XBI Feb9’18 93 calls for 0.04, sold for 0.52. STO XBI Feb16’18 93 calls for 0.42.
UVXY call sold
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Jan 2019 70 call for 9.60. I still have more long calls than short, so it’s not costly for me to add slowly.
SVXY final long put sold
#VXXGame Sold to Close $SVXY June 110 long put for 99.25. Originally sold in the 150/110 put spread for 18.40 on Jan 5th. That leaves my highest SVXY naked put (150) ready for assignment. Cost basis on assignment for this one alone would be 32.35. Not so bad, but also not taking into account the rest of my puts that didn’t have the benefit of spreads.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign High $TICK readings of the day… the lows could be in.
Sold to OPEN $SPX Feb 9th 2565/2540 put spreads for 2.20. Expire tomorrow, 70 points OTM.
Sold to CLOSE $SPX Feb 9th 2590/2570 put spreads for 2.75. Bought for 4.25 on Tuesday. Was riding the limit price on this one at the lows, but liquidated once I saw new TICK highs; loss is covered by the one I sold above.
Earlier: Sold to Open $SPX Feb 23rd 2450/2425 put spreads for 2.00.
Closed on GTC order: Feb 9th 2740/2765 call spreads for .25. Sold for 6.20 on Tuesday.
“Traders who continue to play…
“Traders who continue to play the short-vol game with SVXY must read this.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4144576-xiv-dies-warning-svxy
CMI #FallingKnife Sold $CMI Sep…
CMI #FallingKnife
Sold $CMI Sep 21 115 put @ 1.40. Lowest strike in Sep.
CMG put
Sold $CMG Sep 21 200 put @ 5.60 with the stock at 265.37. Delta is 13. Strike is 25% lower than current price and at a level the stock hasn’t been in almost 6 1/2 years (Oct 2010).
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 21st 2425/2450/2750/2775 #CondorRoll for 4.35, as a roll from the Feb 9th put spreads stopped earlier.
DUST Calls
Sold $DUST Jun 15th 40 call for 2.00
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Feb 9th 2625/2600 put spreads for 4.25. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 4.25 on Monday. Will look to roll later today. Couldn’t risk a precipitous drop into tomorrow’s close.
TSLA
Long term quest to become a model s owner one day. BTC 9 feb 370 call 0.10 STO for 3.15. STO 16 feb 355 call for 2.49. #syntheticstock
FANG
FB, BABA, GOOGL, NFLX, AMZN, following market.
AAPL not caring, although still a crappy daily chart.
TSLA trade closed
#Earnings Closed $TSLA Feb 9th 310 puts for .55. In #ShortStrangles for 3.15, out for .65.
VXX stock sold
#VXXGame Sold long $VXX stock for 49.82. Assigned via 42 puts on Oct 13th.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 12th 2700/2725 call spreads for 4.10.
Working on stopping out of tomorrow’s 2625/2600 put spreads. Probably on this bounce.
CAH put
BTC March 16, 50 put at .10 cents, sold at 1.20 on 1 contract.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX 2790/2815 call spreads for .30. Sold for 3.55 on Monday.
Market’s looking pretty weak.
#shortputs #pietrades TRTN PFE TRTN…
#shortputs #pietrades TRTN PFE
TRTN Rolled Feb. 16 35 put to March 16 for 1.30. TRTN is at 32.50, rolled Feb. 16 40 put to March 16 for .88
PFE was originally a Tradewise covered call, couldn’t get filled on a recommended roll, fortunately was called away before the damn broke. Getting back in sold Feb. 16, 34.50 put for .36, too early, PFE is at 34.67.
$SVXY
Morning all. I have been assigned most of my $SVXY shares at a basis of 100 +/- with 200 more to come.
I followed Fuxxball this morning and added long a few Jan 2020 30 strikes at 3.20. A little early for the morning though but need to get onto the other job. Can’t get a fill on my Feb 16th 2910/2930 BeCS to close at .05. I can wait. I don’t think the $SPX is getting up there again any time soon. I can only wish. Looking to open a new Feb 28th spread down around 2390 at some point. All the best.
TSLA call closed
#Earnings Closed $TSLA Feb 9th 372.5 call for .10. Order in to close put for the same. #ShortStrangles sold yesterday for 3.15. I would normally let these expire but not in the volatile market.
SVXY
BTC January 2019, 265 call @ .01, sold at 6.70
This is my only winner against a lot of puts that are under water. I am not sure what my average cost will be when I am assigned all of my puts.
UAL put
BTC March 16, 50 put @ .10 cents, sold at 1.65 on 1 contract. The road back is one contact at a time.
BMY Rolled Feb 9 63…
TWTR
Boom
Good morning
I got a bunch more assignments this morning on SVXY, and more to come.
DUST calls
#ContangoETFs Thanks to @ramie77 for the head’s up that DUST is back in call-selling range.
Sold $DUST Apr 20th 35 call for 1.65
Sold $DUST Jun 15th 35 call for 2.75
SPY
TSLA
#Earnings – Following @Jeff with the strangle. I’d like to see this stock pull back so I’m selling the put side a little more aggressively. Also going out another week…
Sold TSLA FEB 16 2018 310.0/395.0 Strangle @ 4.15
Earnings FISV
#earnings
$FISV STO 2/16 125 put at 1.09
TSLA earnings
Sold $TSLA Feb 9th 310/372.5 strangles for 3.15. Biggest UP move: 11.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.9%, Average move: 5.4%. My strikes are -9.9% and +8.3% OTM.
SVXY
#LongCalls – I’ve got some risk in this ticker so what’s a little bit more. If we get a decent recovery this should help considerably getting back to even sooner. With put skew right now this seems like a decent shot. Leaving it uncovered for now…
Bought to Open SVXY JAN 17 2020 40.0 Calls @ 2.60
REGN
#SyntheticStock – I may regret this but making an aggressive roll down for earnings. This should turn it around…
Rolled REGN FEB 9 2018 407.5 Calls to REGN FEB 9 2018 345.0 Calls @ 4.03 credit (6.73 total now)
Rolled REGN FEB 9 2018 400.0 Calls to REGN FEB 9 2018 345.0 Calls @ 4.35 credit (5.95 total now)
Earnings before the open tomorrow with expected move of 13.40
AAOI
#SyntheticStock – Another week done. One more sale prior to earnings the following week…
Bought to Close AAOI FEB 9 2018 35.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .60)
Bought to Close AAOI FEB 9 2018 35.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.05)
Sold AAOI FEB 16 2018 33.0 Calls @ .55
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign
Closed on GTC order: $SPX Feb 9th 2785/2810 call spreads for .20. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 4.25 on Monday.
UVXY calls added
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Mar 16th 22 call for 4.40, adding.
Sold Apr 20th 26 call for 5.30
DUST calls
Sold at the highest strike (35, a level above the Dec peak):
$DUST Mar 2 35 calls @ .40
$DUST Mar 9 35 calls @ .60
$DUST Mar 23 35 calls @ 1.00
$DUST Apr 20 35 call @ 1.60
PG
BTO Diag Apr 87.50 Sto Mar 16 90. .57
Unusual Option Activity today
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Feb 16th 2810/2835 call spreads for .90. Sold for 10.00 on Friday.
XBI
#Fuzzy – STO XBI Feb9’18 93 calls for 0.52
CMCSA
BTC Feb 9 63 .03 Close #Hedge Sold 1-24 $ .46
Still backward but getting close,…
Still backward but getting close, maybe another week or 2.
www.vixcentral.com
Had to drop the Vxx…
Had to drop the Vxx prefix on my handle.
Taking some UVXY profits
Trimming back by closing a couple of positions I put on yesterday (with UVXY over 25) for a good profit as volatility came in.
Bought to close:
$UVXY Apr 20 45 call @ 2.90 Sold for 8.00
$UVXY Mar 23 45 call @ 2.00 Sold for 6.00
Short Puts MZOR
#shortputs
STO 2/16/65 puts @ 2.60
#vxxgame SVXY VIX ZIV Here…
#vxxgame SVXY VIX ZIV
Here is about 20 minutes on what happened and why, nothing that hasn’t been stated here in the last couple of days
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/trade-managers/episodes/svxy-xiv-and-ziv-implications-02-06-2018?utm_content=buffere772b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
DIS
#syntheticstock Still plugging away..BTC 9 feb 115 call .05 sto for 0.60..STO 16 feb 110 call for 0.65
Core is Jan 2020 100/100/95..need 0.16 per week to cover worse case.
BMY
STO DFeb 9 63 .15 #Hedge
SVXY fuzzy
STO 2020, 10 calls
BTC 2020,10 puts
STC 2020, 5 puts
BTC February 16, 20 calls, all for a debit of 4.80, bought yesterday for a debit of 3.703
I was thinking that I have more than enough exposure to this ETF so closed it out for a profit. I am only looking at Fuzzy trades from now on to eternity.
SVXY trades
#VXXGame Sold $SVXY Feb 16th 100 long put for 86.80. Sold in the 120/100 put spread for 2.15 on Jan 23rd.
Also, yesterday closed my final 2 calls:
Closed June 150 call for .05. Sold for 14.95 on 12/20.
Closed Jan 2019 205 call for .05. Sold for 8.05 on Oct 20th.
SPX Campaign / Short Puts FB NTNX / Closed Early SVXY Calls
#spxcampaign
$SPX STO 2/7 2745/2720 BECS @ 5.00
#shortputs
$FB STO 3/16 165/175 BUPS @ 1.75
Rolled
$NTNX BTC 2/16 37.50 put STO 3/16 35 put @ .30 debit
Closed Early
$SVXY BTC 3/16 140 call at .02
CBOE Fuzzy
BTO 115 calls, 2020
STO 115 puts, 2020
BTO 110 puts, 2020
STO February 16, 125 calls for a total debit of 15.60
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Sold to close $SPX Feb 9th 2760/2740 put spreads for 15.05. Bought for 3.80 last Friday.
Bought to open SPX Feb 16th 2600/2580 put spreads for 1.80. In case we get tother text of lows.
I have several SHORT spreads on either side of current SPX level.
SPX
Feb 06 STO Feb 23 Short 2550 puts @ 48.90
Feb 07 BTC Feb 23 Short 2550 @ 10.50
Gain @ 79%
STO Feb 23 SPX 2600 Short side, against my existing Long side, at 13.40..
#shortputs #margin SVXY TDA is…
#shortputs #margin SVXY
TDA is requiring a a full $1200 margin for my Feb. 9, slightly out of the money 12 put. For a comparison, I have a deep in the money Feb. 16 40 put on TRTN (was looking good just a few days ago), trading at 32 and continuing down, margin is $1458
#pietrades AAPL, rolled this week…
AAPL, rolled this week 165 CC to next week for 1 credit. Market makers still be greedy on the spreads. cost basis now 161.
GM rolled this week 42.5 put t next week for 0.25 credit. Cost basis now 40 and pennies, I forgot a calculation last week and too lazy to do it now.
SVXY is going to become a #pietrade as soon as I am assigned some shares. Weeklies trying to get 1 per week but far enough OTM that will not have to cover and will wait until we are back in contango. See discussion below.
Good luck everyone, I am done for the week, going skiing in Maine tomorrow morning.
Hopefully start the SVXY recovery Monday morning!!
#shortputs SVXY Sold Feb. 9,…
#shortputs SVXY
Sold Feb. 9, 12 put for .48
More on ETN’s
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/wall-street-turned-these-esoteric-etns-into-a-winning-bet-for-the-masses.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
WYNN Going Up Pre-Market
$WYNN UP 13 points PM on Steve Wynns resignation.
Good Morning
Good Morning
Good morning
We are still in backwardation on the VIX so there will not be much of a recovery on the SVXY.
SVXY
The assignments are happening.
Assigned on February 16, 70 and 75 puts. I woud prefer to get all of them assigned so I can sell covered calls.
WYNN
Could lead to a potential falling knife / synthetic opportunity…
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/steve-wynn-is-out-as-ceo-of-wynn-resorts.html
Options Bistro 