#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

***NOTE: One-day moves are listed, but I included the extremes for 3-day moves as well. As you can see, big moves were followed by continuation for the three days following earnings.

*****NOTE #2: the EXPECTED move (per TOS) is higher than the Maximum 1-day historical moves. A bigger than usual move is expected, which could just mean options are overpriced. Note, however, that the three-day moves exceed the expected.

Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN — 3-day = -8.31%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +5.08% Biggest UP — 3-day = +12.5%
May 5, 2016 BO +3.96%
Jan. 28, 2016 BO -3.76%

Avg (+ or -) 3.11%
Bias 0.03%, no directional bias on earnings.

With stock at 157.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 146.67 to 167.33
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 152.11 to 161.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.9%): 147.74 to 166.26

Open for requests on other symbols.