#BearCallSpreads – Busy week away from the market but managed one fill today…

Sold UVXY FEB 1 2019 72.5/82.5 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.37

For some reason the reply…

For some reason the reply button is not working for me at the moment.
Adding to @jeffcp66 and @kathycon discussion below on SPX/SPY/ES credit spreads below, the idea is to get a directional kick if the short strike is violated. Sometimes it works and you get a good profit spike. From what I did with #spycraft the other day, not looking so good today but I did not have time to adjust. Hoping for a snap back rally tomorrow.

The way I see it there are 3-5 adjustments that may work most of the time, none are going to work all the time.
1. delta neutral buy back half of your short strikes. Works great if it keeps moving, not so much if it reverses like it has for me.
2. delta neutral, buy some options between your strikes. Same as above but probably a little cheaper and the same problems as above.
3. just closing it down at a certain loss level or closing it early. You could also roll out and up/down but may be hard to get credits if it has already moved that much.
4. butterfly, either BW or regular. This is probably the cheapest and can be skewed but then will have loss on one side, but fixed gain or loss on the other. At least you stop the bleeding at that point and lock in your gain/loss.
5. convert the short side to a calendar or diagonal like a #fuzzy and then manage from there but then you may be in a position a lot longer than you want.

Final decision up to you but I am going to keep experimenting with all 5 options to see if there is one that always works the best. Like @kathycon I think the butterfly will be the most efficient. Once on you can leave it alone and let it expire. Everything would cancel out.

SPX 1dte fly defense worked

Closed my SPX Jan22 2620/2625/2630 put flies (defense position from IC) one account for $1240 profit and the other for $600 profit. I was tempted to hold for a pin at 2625 but decided some profit is better than no profit so I TTMAR. I’ve learned a lot from Deal or No Deal. lol.

The call side of the IC will close for full profit of $600. Was a good day. I owe @hcgdavis for suggesting flies for defense. They will be my “go to” defense on the credit spreads that are near expiration.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 23rd 2575/2555 put spreads for .55. Looking to add the call spread on any bounce; hopefully before 3pm ET.

WYNN earnings analysis

#Earnings Who knows when $WYNN will report? Estimates range from tonight until the 28th. IV on TOS shows it could be this week or next. As you can see from the past dates, they tend to announce in different weeks every quarter.

Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC +1.77%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC +15.83% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 7.14%
Bias -0.46%, no significant positive or negative bias, just tends to move.

With stock at 111.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 105.24 to 116.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 103.07 to 118.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.8%): 93.43 to 128.57
Open for requests on other symbols.

T time

#PieTrades #ShortPuts Sold to Open $T April 31 puts for 1.60.
Replicating my Oct 24th-Jan 18th successful trade. This time it is Jan 22nd to April 18th.
Assignment would be fine on a high-div tock, becomes a PieTrade with covered calls.

#earnings #shortstrangles IBM Sold Feb….

#earnings #shortstrangles IBM

Sold Feb. 15, 105/135 strangle for .90.

#earnings Jeff-can you show earnings…


Jeff-can you show earnings data for WYNN-thanks

#earnings #closing UAL January 15,…

#earnings #closing UAL

January 15, sold Feb. 15, 60/90 strangle for 1.10, bought today for .58 on the move down.

SPX 1dte

#spx1dte Sold SPX Jan23 2600/2595 put credit spread (pcs) @ .25 x 6, four in one account and two in the other. Looking for an opportunity to sell a call credit spread (ccs)
Sold SPX Jan23 2685/2690 ccs @ .20 x6 to complete ICs in both accounts based on break below low of day.


SOME TRADES: Moth to the flame. ;>)


SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jan 22nd 2630/2610 put spreads for 1.20. Condor sold for .95 on Friday. Suffered from poor entry in the last hour on Friday, so my put spread was simply too high to survive this minor (so far) pullback. I’ll be looking to enter these earlier in the day.

Hello VXXB

#VXXGame #LongLEAPs
Bought to open $VXXB Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.75.
A starter position for a 12-month trade. My bigger target will be the 2021 LEAPs, which are still pretty expensive, but should lower in value by late summer, provided we don’t enter a bear market. I may also look at ATM puts and sell puts against them, but this OTM position is meant to be a cheaper play that stands alone without cost reduction.

IBM earnings analysis

#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THREE-DAY moves over the last 12 quarters.

(I used 3-day moves since Friday is 4 days away, and the 3-day range is higher than the 1-day).

Tue 10/16/2018 AC -11.04%
Wed 07/18/2018 AC +1.27%
Tue 04/17/2018 AC -9.95%
Thu 01/18/2018 AC -3.99%
Tue 10/17/2017 AC +10.60%
Tue 07/18/2017 AC -4.49%
Tue 04/18/2017 AC -5.68%
Thu 01/19/2017 AC +2.24%
Mon 10/17/2016 AC -2.09%
Mon 07/18/2016 AC +0.36%
Mon 04/18/2016 AC -2.11%
Tue 01/19/2016 AC -4.37%

Avg (+ or -) 4.85%
Bias -2.44%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 123.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 116.94 to 130.06
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 117.51 to 129.49
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 109.87 to 137.13

Open for requests on other symbols.