EXAS STO Puts / SPX 1 DTE Expired

#shortputs
$EXAS STO 2/1 82 put at .60

#spx1dte
$SPX STO 1/30 2565/2585/2705/2685 IC for 1.10 Bought it this morning and my nails are still on my fingers as it expired worthless. Thank you @jeffcp66

#SVXY

Hi all

For those affect by #SVXY#  last year, I was contacted by an attorney in NYC who is filing a class action suit.  If interested, here’s his contact info:

Eitan Kimelman
Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC
60 E 42nd Street, Suite 4600, New York, New York 10165
 212.697.6484   917‑750‑9429   212.697.7296  
 eitank@bgandg.com   http://www.bgandg.com/

 

 

 

SPX 1-dte trades

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 31st 2615/2635-2735/2755 iron condors for 1.00. (IV 16%)

I hated doing this because I feel the rally today is a headfake, but I cannot fight the tape any higher than this.

Bought to close $SPX Feb 14th 2730/2750 call spreads for 5.75. Sold in a #CondorRoll on Jan 4th.
#CondorRoll Sold to Open Feb 14th 2600/2620/2760/2780 condors for 6.05.

Theotrade VIX hedge…

#Hedges -From last weekend’s freebie. Go to the 10:30 mark to see his VIX hedge. Basically sell puts to finance bull call spreads. Could be getting close to time again…

https://theotrade.com/clouded-market-clarity-provides-these-trade-setups/

Jumping back into NUGT

Sold $NUGT Jun 21 35 calls @ 1.01. Highest strike in June.

SPY

Did one of DK’s Back Ratio’s on 1-28
-1 267/+2 271 for .26 cr starting to be profitable

Iceman classic…

awesome

SPX

Closed last of SPX Butterfly’s opened 12-31 2625/2650/2675 for 1.35, closed 1 on 1-24 $2.25 just closed rest $2.25
Not sure where we are going, had a nice profit. Did not want it to run right past limits.

#earnings MSFT X TastyTrade ideas…

#earnings MSFT X

TastyTrade ideas

X sold March 15, 22 straddle for 3.11
MSFT sold March 15, 95/115 strangle for 1.89

Thank you for the earnings data Jeff.

TQQQ calls

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Filled on the Fed spike: Sold $TQQQ Feb 15th 44 calls for 2.45

#rolling, adjustments, and new trades…

#rolling, adjustments, and new trades

#fuzzy
MU rolled the 35/35 out 16 DTE for 0.5 credit. Cb now 14.30
WDC 40/40 rolled out 9 DTE for 0.33 credit. Cb now 17.71

I was going to close these at a loss but figure if I can get at least 0.25 per roll will keep rolling to generate cash and lower cost basis. 10 contracts each so decent income.

#pietrades
SQ STO the 9 DTE Feb 8-9 68 put for 1.53. Decided not to jade lizard until after FOMC and see what the market does. If we gap up I will sell the CCS once it has a top or range.

FOMC must have just released up 10 more on /ES. I may #jadelizard SQ into the close if it slows down to the upside.

After 4-5 months of crap trading, finally making some income/cash and money again but I still have a long way to go to recover the SVXY fiasco.

Closed Jan30 SPX 1dte IC early

Closed for .20. Sold for .55 x 6. Total profit $210
#spx1-dte

SPX 1-dte closing

#SPX1dte bought to close $SPX Jan 30th 2685 calls for .85. Condors sold for 1.00 yesterday. Could not hold through the FOMC release that comes out in 40 minutes. I don’t expect a move like last time, when we exploded higher, but can’t risk it. Also sold a couple the long 2705 calls for .05, and will try to sell them all to reduce cost of the exit. Allowing puts to expire.

Don’t know whether I’ll buy or sell the condor for Jan 31st expiration yet!

SPX — Market of the Gaps

screen shot 2019-01-30 at 9.27.32 am

MSFT earnings analysis

#Earnings $MSFT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 24, 2018 AC +5.84%
July 19, 2018 AC +1.79%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.65%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -0.78%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +6.41% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC -0.57%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.27%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +2.34%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC +4.20%
July 19, 2016 AC +5.31%
April 21, 2016 AC -7.17% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 28, 2016 AC +5.82%

Avg (+ or -) 3.51%
Bias 2.09%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 105.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 101.22 to 110.58
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 102.18 to 109.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.2%): 98.31 to 113.49

Open for requests on other symbols.

NOW iron butterfly

#Earnings #IronButterfly

Sold to open $NOW Feb 1st 185/190/195 iron butterflys for 4.35. Max risk .65. As I reported below, this one has been more of a minor mover in recent years, so seeing if it can maintain its calm. If not, max loss is tolerable.

Long Straddles

#LongStraddle #Earnings
Sold to Close final batch of $GLW Feb 1st 30 calls for 3.27. Netted about 60% profit (bought for 1.92 on Monday).
Sold to close some of the $EBAY Feb 1st 33.5 puts for .61. Straddles bought yesterday for 2.23. This one will be tough to breakeven, unless we get a rally over next couple days.

#shortstrangles #closing SQ January 4…

#shortstrangles #closing SQ

January 4 sold a Feb. 15, 45/75 strangle for 1.48. SQ was close to 78 recently, bought the strangle today for 1.28, happy after the run-up.

CRUS earnings analysis

#Earnings $CRUS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 1, 2018 AC +3.10%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -7.01%
May 2, 2018 AC -1.53%
Feb. 5, 2018 AC -3.31%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -0.42%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -6.89%
May 3, 2017 AC +0.10%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -14.00% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +6.85%
July 27, 2016 AC +19.27% Biggest UP
April 26, 2016 AC +12.38%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC +16.38%

Avg (+ or -) 7.60%
Bias 2.08%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 38.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.03 to 40.97
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.11 to 40.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.3%): 30.68 to 45.32

Open for requests on other symbols.

Covered Calls

#CoveredCalls #LongStock Sold to Open $PVTL Feb 15th 18 calls for .75

NOW earnings analysis

#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74%
April 26, 2017 AC +3.75%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +3.61%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +7.68%
July 27, 2016 AC +4.65%
April 20, 2016 AC +14.06% Biggest UP
Jan. 27, 2016 AC -15.65% Biggest DOWN (the only DOWN)

Avg (+ or -) 5.38%
Bias 2.77%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 189.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 117.65 to 202.15
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 179.69 to 200.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.7%): 160.18 to 219.62

Open for requests on other symbols.

WYNN earnings analysis

#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC +1.77%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC +15.83% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 7.14%
Bias -0.46%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 117.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 109.04 to 125.96
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 109.11 to 125.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.8%): 98.90 to 136.10

Open for requests on other symbols.

TUP getting hammered

Sold $TUP Jul 19 22.50 puts @ 1.20 with the stock at 27.87
#FallingKnife

FB earnings analysis

#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC +1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC +7.19%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC +15.52% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 6.01%
Bias 1.17%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 146.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.11 to 155.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 137.22 to 154.78
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 118.32 to 173.68

Open for requests on other symbols.

SPY 21dte ladder

Sold SPY Feb20 274/276 ccs @ .26 x 2. SPY 21dte ladder strat. Will sell pcs on reversal.
Sold SPY Feb20 254/252 pcs @ .20 x2 to complete the IC.
#spycraft

SPX 1-dte IC

Sold SPX Jan30 2710/2715 ccs @ .25 x 6 across two accounts. Will add pcs on reversal.
Sold SPX Jan30 2600/2595 pcs @ .25 x6 across two accounts to complete the IC
Sold 3 more Jan31 2710/2715 ccs @ .75 after fed announcement. This is based on the usual reversal after a spike on the announcement.
#spx1-dte