Events Wednesday

#Market Reminders for tomorrow:
GDP numbers at 8:30am ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2pm ET

SPX 1-dte, short

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 30th 2565/2585/2685/2705 iron condors for 1.00

I switched back to selling because IV on this chain is over 16% and HV dipped below IV.

#earnings #ironcondor BA Sold Feb….

#earnings #ironcondor BA

Sold Feb. 15, 335/340/390/395 IC for 1.31

EBAY earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings $EBAY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Bought $EBAY Feb 1st 33.5 straddle for 2.23.

Oct. 30, 2018 AC +5.87%
July 18, 2018 AC -10.11%
April 25, 2018 AC -5.58%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +13.82% Biggest UP
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -1.79%
July 20, 2017 AC -1.53%
April 19, 2017 AC -3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +4.99%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC -10.76%
July 20, 2016 AC +10.89%
April 26, 2016 AC +3.18%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC -12.45% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 7.07%
Bias -0.62%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 33.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 31.39 to 35.81
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 31.46 to 36.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.8%): 29.17 to 38.53

Open for requests on other symbols.

BA earnings trade

#Earnings Sold to Open $BA Feb 1st 345/350/380/385 #IronCondor for 1.78. About 3.8% on downside and 4.5% on upside.

SPX weeklies question

Does anyone know why SPX has an extra weekly expiration this week? There are options expiring Mon, Wed, Thurs, and Fri. That happens sometimes with monthly expiration but not usually at EOM.

#shortstrangles MU TastyTrade idea sold…

#shortstrangles MU

TastyTrade idea sold March 15, 33/42 strangle for 1.92

BA earnings analysis

#Earnings $BA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 24, 2018 BO +1.31%
July 25, 2018 BO -0.65%
April 25, 2018 BO +4.19%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +4.93%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO -2.84%
July 26, 2017 BO +9.87% Biggest UP
April 26, 2017 BO -0.98%
Jan. 25, 2017 BO +4.24%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO +4.68%
July 27, 2016 BO +0.82%
April 27, 2016 BO +2.88%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO -8.92% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 3.86%
Bias 1.63%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 365.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 350.40 t0 380.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 351.39 to 379.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.9%): 329.43 to 401.57

Open for requests on other symbols.

ADVANCE on TSLA

#Earnings $TSLA reports Wednesday night. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +0.87%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +2.13%
May 4, 2016 AC -4.95%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC +4.73%

Avg (+ or -) 6.40%
Bias 0.19%, no significant directional bias on earnings.

With stock at 295.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 263.33 to 326.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 276.11 to 313.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 247.27 to 342.73

Open for requests on other symbols.

SPY 21dte ladder

Sold SPY Feb19 IC 274/276/250/248 @ .42 x2. Now have four of six max layers in the ladder. All ICs look fine at this point.
#spycraft

SPX 1dte

#spx1dte Sold SPX Jan30 1dte IC 2690/2695/2590/2585 @ .55 x6 across two accounts. Keeping trade size smaller for a while to recover from over-defending these trades.

AMD earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THREE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

***NOTE: These are 3-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday. These moves are bigger than 1-day moves. This stock can move BIG.

Wed 10/24/2018 AC -22.64%
Wed 07/25/2018 AC +18.01%
Wed 04/25/2018 AC +14.42%
Tue 01/30/2018 AC -3.26%
Tue 10/24/2017 AC -16.91%
Tue 07/25/2017 AC -1.13%
Mon 05/01/2017 AC -25.84% Biggest DOWN
Tue 01/31/2017 AC +18.03%
Thu 10/20/2016 AC -6.32%
Thu 07/21/2016 AC +11.87%
Thu 04/21/2016 AC +52.29% Biggest UP
Tue 01/19/2016 AC +3.58%

Avg (+ or -) 16.19%
Bias 3.51%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 19.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 17.19 to 22.01
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 16.43 to 22.77
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (52.3%): 9.35 to 29.85

Open for requests on other symbols.

#longstraddle

GLW mostly closed

#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close $GLW Feb 1st 30 calls for 3.10. Straddles bought for 1.92 yesterday. I closed two-thirds of my position. Holding the rest for potentially higher prices into Friday.

BABA earnings analysis

#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

***NOTE: One-day moves are listed, but I included the extremes for 3-day moves as well. As you can see, big moves were followed by continuation for the three days following earnings.

*****NOTE #2: the EXPECTED move (per TOS) is higher than the Maximum 1-day historical moves. A bigger than usual move is expected, which could just mean options are overpriced. Note, however, that the three-day moves exceed the expected.

Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN — 3-day = -8.31%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +5.08% Biggest UP — 3-day = +12.5%
May 5, 2016 BO +3.96%
Jan. 28, 2016 BO -3.76%

Avg (+ or -) 3.11%
Bias 0.03%, no directional bias on earnings.

With stock at 157.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 146.67 to 167.33
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 152.11 to 161.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.9%): 147.74 to 166.26

Open for requests on other symbols.

AAPL earnings analysis

#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THREE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

***NOTE: These are 3-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday. These moves are slightly bigger than 1-day moves.

Thu 11/01/2018 AC -6.63%
Tue 07/31/2018 AC +9.30% Biggest UP
Tue 05/01/2018 AC +8.71%
Thu 02/01/2018 AC -4.34%
Thu 11/02/2017 AC +2.61%
Tue 08/01/2017 AC +4.22%
Tue 05/02/2017 AC +0.98%
Tue 01/31/2017 AC +6.37%
Tue 10/25/2016 AC -3.83%
Tue 07/26/2016 AC +7.79%
Tue 04/26/2016 AC -10.16% Biggest DOWN
Tue 01/26/2016 AC -2.65%

Avg (+ or -) 5.63%
Bias 1.03%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 157.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 148.24 to 165.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 148.16 to 165.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.2%): 141.05 to 172.95

Open for requests on other symbols.

Farewell old friend…

But #VXXGame lives on.

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