Meant to post this earlier–filled in the last hour of the trading day. Bought to close $EA 6/21 85/110 strangle @ 1.43. Sold for 2.16 yesterday so with the volatility contraction I was able to get out with a nice 1 day profit.
Daily Archives: Thursday, May 9, 2019
YELP strangle
#Earnings Bought to open $YELP May 10th 39.5/40 #LongStrangle for 4.37. I need an 11.8% move for breakeven. Avg move on earnings is 15.2%.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 10th 2760/2780-2920/2940 condors for 2.05. (IV 25.92%, SPX 2864)
A little more aggressive than normal from a delta standpoint, .08 on both sides rather than .06. But in quiet IV times I have gone as high as .10 to get enough premium, and these strikes are decently OTM. Puts 2.9% away and Calls 2.0% away. Yes, it’s possible, and if we get super big news tonight, I may get stopped out tomorrow.
CTL short puts
Sold $CTL 6/21 10 puts @ .33. Stock printing a hammer after the post-earnings gap down (between 3 and 4 standard deviations on the daily bollinger bands–now hanging around the 2SD lower band). If assigned, dividend yield will be 10% so I will likely take the stock if it closes below 10 at June expiration.
VXX long put spread
Again maybe a bit early, but on the chance that this vol spike has run its course, bought $VXX 5/31 32/27 bear put spread for 2.50 debit. 1:1 risk/reward. Breakeven in a little over 3 weeks is 29.50 with VXX currently trading at 30.76. Giving the trade a few weeks for vol to calm down in case I’m wrong. Will look to take 1.25-1.50 profit out of it.
Another UVXY call spread
Sold $UVXY 5/31 50/60 bear call spread @ 1.28
#shortstrangles AAPL
Sold June 21, 180/220 strangle for 2.65.
#earnings WYNN Z
WYNN Sold June 21, 110/155 strangle for 3.39.
Z Sold June 21, 35 straddle for 6.13. Thank you for the data Jeff.
Fading the ROKU move
I may be a bit early so I’ll have this on a short leash. Sold $ROKU 6/21 90/95 bear call spread @ 1.23.
AMZN June BuPS
Sold $AMZN 6/21 1815/1765 bull put spread @ 12.02. Delta of short strike 30. IV rank 39.
#earnings #closing GLW
January 28, sold an iron condor, was assigned short stock in Feb, sold some puts and then a long call hedge for this quarters earnings, paid a dividend, closed today somehow making 118 from after all the maneuverings.
A TRADE:
IRBT STO 5/10/19 96.0 CALLS @.85 Expires tomorrow. Added this to the short 95.0 calls
#earnings ROKU
Yesterday sold a June 21, 50/80 strangle. Today rolled the 50 put to 80 for a June 21 80 straddle. I’ve collected $1028 in premium.
TRADES:
NVTA BTO STOCK @18.47 A little, will add in small increments if opportunity is there.
IRBT STO 5/10/19 95.0 CALLS @1.11 Expires tomorrow.
Z earnings analysis
#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
May 3, 2016 AC +12.05%
Avg (+ or -) 10.22%
Bias -0.77%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.83 to 38.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 30.53 to 37.47
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 24.85 to 43.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
YELP earnings analysis
#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66% Biggest UP
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%
May 5, 2016 AC +23.71%
Avg (+ or -) 15.17%
Bias 1.63%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 39.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.04 to 44.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 33.59 to 45.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 28.65 to 50.55
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 29.07
Open to requests for other symbols.
WYNN earnings analysis
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.09%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67% Biggest UP
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC +1.77%
Avg (+ or -) 6.00%
Bias -1.61%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 123.53 to 140.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 124.08 to 139.92
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 114.67 to 149.33
Based on UP max only (8.7%): 143.44
Open to requests for other symbols.
ROKU
Slow down a little would you
Options Bistro 