#shortputs
$JD BTC 5/17 30 put at .10. STO at 1.19.
#bullputspreads
$NFLX BTC 5/17 350/355 BUPS at .60. STO at 1.35
Daily Archives: Thursday, May 16, 2019
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 17th 2810/2830/2910/2930 condors for 1.30. (IV 13.71%, SPX 2879).
A TRADE:
HIIQ STO 5/17/19 24.0 CALLS @.40 Expires tomorrow.
DIS Covered Calls
Sold calls against some stock that I’m long to hedge part of my position. STO $DIS 6/21 140 calls @ 2.00 with the stock at 136.08. Delta 35. Strike is above the all time closing high from late April (stock was above 140 intraday on days in late April but never closed above it). Looking for resistance at that level.
A TRADE: Alert, my BuPS…
A TRADE: Alert, my BuPS is really a BeCS, didn’t know how to edit, if even possible. Alert!!!!
A TRADE: Taking a shot…
A TRADE: Taking a shot here for the thrill. ;>)
UBER STO a 5/24/19 45.0/48.0 BuPS @.65
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Stopped out $SPX March 16th 2895/2905 call spreads for 3.05. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20.
Another #CondorRoll, same strikes as I sold earlier for May 31st, but this time a week earlier:
Sold $SPX 2815/2840-2960/2985 condors for 4.55.
TRADES:
HIIQ BTO STOCK 23.78
HIIQ STO 5/17/19 24.0 CALLS @.60
AMD STO 5/24/19 28.5 CALLS @.67 Covered
SPX smashed
#SPX1dte The biggest up days in history are all during times of market volatility. On a percentage basis, the Fall of 2008 contains five of the top 10 biggest moves UP; a period in which the market was only starting its fall to lose over half its value.
So it is fitting a call spread I could have closed at yesterday’s open for about .45 I now had to stop out for 8.00. Today’s action has provided no pullback opportunities, although I imagine there’ll be one now that I was finally forced out.
BTC $SPX May 17th 2890/2915 call spreads for 8.00. Sold for 2.10 on Monday.
#CondorRoll Sold $SPX May 31st 2815/2840/2960/2985 condors for 6.65
I’m also going to take a loss on today’s monthly condor call side. I cannot risk overnight gap risk on the 2895 short calls.
CMG
#LongPuts – I had bought these as lottery tickets in a 401k with the plan of selling put spreads against them to pay them off. I’ve just been advised that spread trading will not be allowed in this account so walking away with the .30 loss. I could still set up the spread with two trades but refuse to pay Fidelity the extra commissions.
Sold CMG JAN 15 2021 210.0 Puts @ 1.50 (bought for 1.80)
DE bullish play
#Earnings I was looking at a #DoubleCalendar, ATM going for about 1.50, but didn’t want the risk as I think a bigger than average move may be possible. Market is crazy bullish at the moment, entirely Trade-War driven. So I looked at an OTM call calendar at 160. The front calls don’t even have a bid, so, I just went with the “buy” half of the Calendar…
Bought to open $DE May 24th 160 calls for .18.
Looking at the daily chart, DE was close to 170 just a couple weeks ago. Unless the report is bad, I believe it has a good shot at a large move tomorrow, or even a further drift upward into next week, when these expire. It is a much better risk/reward play in an uncertain market. Needs any move up to be profitable, and about a 9% move up to be ATM.
NVDA butterfly
#Earnings Bought to Open $NVDA May 17th 155/160/162.5 #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.49. Bullish trade with no upside risk.
DE earnings analysis
#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Nov. 23, 2016 BO +11.04%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +13.49% Biggest UP
May 20, 2016 BO -5.48% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.18%
Bias 3.02%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 146.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 140.45 to 151.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 138.43 to 153.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 126.30 to 165.70
Based on DOWN Max only (-5.5%): 138.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
NVDA earnings analysis
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP
Aug. 11, 2016 AC +5.59%
May 12, 2016 AC +15.20%
Avg (+ or -) 9.64%
Bias 4.06%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 159.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 147.20 to 170.80
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 143.68 to 174.32
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 111.62 to 206.38
Based on DOWN Max only (-18.8%): 129.19
Open to requests for other symbols.
BIDU earnings analysis
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -2.70%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.64%
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC +5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC +9.45% Biggest UP
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%
April 28, 2016 AC +4.45%
Avg (+ or -) 5.13%
Bias -0.10%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 152.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 145.46 to 159.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 144.67 to 160.33
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 138.09 to 166.91
Based on DOWN Max only (-8.2%): 140.07
Open to requests for other symbols.
NVDA Earnings
#Earnings – One for tomorrow and one for a little further out. Good earnings season so far so these are a little aggressive slightly inside the expected moves…
Sold 1 NVDA MAY 17 2019 150.0 Put @ 2.20
Sold 1 NVDA JUN 07 2019 145.0 Put @ 3.05
NTES Earnings
#Earnings – Bought to Close NTES MAY 17 2019 247.5 Put @ .10 (sold for 2.50)
Options Bistro 