#spxcampaign #optionsexpiration
$SPX 2750/2770/2850/2865
$SPX STO 6/5 2675/2700 BUPS at 2.25 Thank you @jeffcp66
Daily Archives: Wednesday, May 29, 2019
UBER earnings
#Earnings $UBER reports its first earnings tomorrow after the bell. Expected move +/- 2.82 by Friday.
SPX
Just one trade today -#SPX1dte STO $SPX 2755/2770 5/29 BuPS @ 1.1 & Held to expiration.
Not a very comfortable day.
New VXX put debit spread
Bought $VXX 6/21 31/26 bear put spread @ 2.51. Breakeven in 24 days 28.49 with VXX currently at 29.81. Looking for 50% profit.
DG dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $DG May31/Jun07 118 #DoubleCalendar for .38 & .39.
JNJ July puts
Selling momentum seems to be slowing, showing some life on the intraday charts. Sold $JNJ 7/19 120 puts @ 1.23 with the stock at 130.09. Delta 18. Strike price below the 12/24/18 low.
AMZN put spread
Sold $AMZN 6/21 1750/1740 bull put spread @ 2.35. Short strike at 28 delta, and below the 200 day moving average.
TRADES:
GOOS STO 5/31/19 36.0 CALLS @.80 & .85 Expires in 2+ days
ANF STO 6/7/19 18.0 PUTS @.41 NTM
ANF STO 6/7/19 19.0 PUTS @.87 ITM
A bounce in oil?
Got pretty extended to the downside. Time to get back to fading the triple leveraged commodity ETFs.
Sold $DRIP 9/20 21 calls @ 1.55
DG earnings analysis
#Earnings $DG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 14, 2019 BO -7.49%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO -6.80%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.97%
May 31, 2018 BO -9.36%
March 15, 2018 BO +4.75%
Dec. 7, 2017 BO +2.77%
Aug. 31, 2017 BO -5.43%
June 1, 2017 BO +6.54% Biggest UP
March 16, 2017 BO +0.53%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO -4.96%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -17.62% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO +4.61%
Avg (+ or -) 5.99%
Bias -2.79%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 119.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 112.81 to 125.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 111.88 to 126.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 98.03 to 139.97
Based on UP Max only (+6.5%): 126.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings #closing CPRI
Yesterday sold a June 21, 33.50/45 strangle for 1.33. Bought today for .75 before it really dropped off. Thanks to Jeff for the data.
SPX duck, stop and roll
BA put spread
Sold $BA 6/21 340/330 bull put spread @ 1.30
DLTR earnings analysis
#Earnings $DLTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 6, 2019 BO +5.11%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +6.13%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -15.54% Biggest DOWN
May 31, 2018 BO -14.28%
March 7, 2018 BO -14.47%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO +2.41%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +5.62%
May 25, 2017 BO +0.92%
March 1, 2017 BO +0.20%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +8.15%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -9.93%
May 26, 2016 BO +12.77% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.96%
Bias -1.08%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 96.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 89.87 to 103.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 88.82 to 104.18
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.5%): 81.50 to 111.50
Based on UP Max only (+12.8%): 108.82
Open to requests for other symbols.
PANW earnings analysis
#Earnings $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +8.20%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC -13.24%
Aug. 30, 2016 AC -7.16%
May 26, 2016 AC -12.36%
Avg (+ or -) 8.79%
Bias -1.07%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 212.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 194.69 to 230.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 193.81 to 231.19
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 161.18 to 263.82
Based on UP Max only (+17.2%): 249.05
Open to requests for other symbols.
ANF closing
#Earnings Sold to close first batch of $ANF May 31st 25 puts for 5.25. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 3.23.
Options Bistro 