#JadeLizard – No upside risk and selling the put at the expected move. Stock basis would be down around the May spike low if it implodes…
Sold STZ JUN 28 2019 177.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.00
Daily Archives: Thursday, June 27, 2019
ABBV T
#Shortputs – Booking a couple…
Bought to Close ABBV JUL 19 2019 65.0 Put @ .55 (sold for 2.01) thanks @geewhiz112 !
Bought to Close T JUL 05 2019 31.5 Puts @ .05 (sold for .53)
BYND BUPS
#bups
$BYND STO 7/19 120/130 BUPS at 2.15
WAB Put Closed
#shortputs
$WAB BTC 7/19/26 put at .80. STO on 5/30 at 3.50. Thank you @ramie77
A TRADE:
PLAY STO 7/5/19 38.0 PUTS @.35
A TRADE: An experiment.
PLAY STO 6/28/19 39.5 CALLS .35 Expires tomorrow. Will cover if necessary.
SPX 1-dte
BuPS 2885/2880 expiring 6/28/2019 for 0.25
STZ earnings analysis
#Earnings $STZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 4, 2019 BO +6.54%
Jan. 9, 2019 BO -12.41% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 BO +5.38%
June 29, 2018 BO -1.78%
March 29, 2018 BO +5.31%
Jan. 5, 2018 BO -0.21%
Oct. 5, 2017 BO +5.41%
June 29, 2017 BO +9.75% Biggest UP
April 6, 2017 BO +9.60%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.47%
Oct. 5, 2016 BO +0.07%
June 30, 2016 BO +6.37%
Avg (+ or -) 5.28%
Bias 2.88%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 185.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 174.86 too 195.14
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 175.24 to 194.76
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 162.04 to 207.96
Based on UP Max only (+9.8%): 203.04
Open to requests for other symbols.
NKE earnings analysis
#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61%
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC +0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%
June 28, 2016 AC +3.84%
Avg (+ or -) 4.77%
Bias 0.96%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 83.40 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 79.27 to 87.53
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 79.42 to 87.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 74.13 to 92.67
Based on DOWN Max only (-7.1%): 77.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 