#ShortPuts – Taking the rest of this off since it looks like it’s running out of steam…
Bought to Close GILD MAR 13 2020 65.0 Puts @ .44 (sold for 1.34)
Monthly Archives: February 2020
#earnings CRM Sold March 20,…
#earnings CRM
Sold March 20, 165/210 strangle for 2.30
SPCE Earnings
#BullPutSpreads #Earnings – Selling slightly in the money. If I get lucky and the stock goes up it’ll be a nice winner. On the other hand, no matter how far it drops I’ll own stock about 1.70 below my basis which can be more than made up in one week of call selling with the extreme premium on this thing.
Sold SPCE FEB 28 2020 41.0/36.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 3.30
New highest strikes for DRIP
Sold $DRIP 3/20 186 call @ 3.50
PANW post-earnings
Sold $PANW 3/20 190/180 bull put spread @ 1.65 with the stock around 201. IV still high (IV rank 55).
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – First time in this expiration…
Sold UVXY SEP 20 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.40
Largest gap open since 2014
#VIXindicator As I said below, this is the first time I’ve had an open gap breach a short strike on the #SPX1dte strategy, which I started in December 2018. Today’s SPX open price was 2.40% below Friday’s close price.
It got me thinking, how often has that happened?
Well, it used to happen fairly frequently, when the SPX price was below 2000. It happened on a fairly steady basis up into 2014.
But the last time it happened was April 10, 2014, when it opened at 1,830.65 (-2.22%). Since then, today was the ONLY day that SPX gapped 2% or more.
Needless to say a Downside Warning fired today as well.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Bad day. Full loss on 3265/3245 put side. Wipes out about 7 weeks of gains on this strategy. As I said earlier, this was the first time in my 15 months of using this strategy that the open gapped past a short strike. There were some chances to get out for $9 or $10 but I gambled that the situation from there would improve. It didn’t.
LABU
STO March 13, 45 put at 2.00
GILD
#ShortPuts – Looking to load up again on some weakness…
Bought to Close GILD MAR 06 2020 65.0 Puts @ .15 (sold for .92 and 1.30)
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – New sales at higher strikes…
Sold UVXY JAN 19 2021 25.0/35.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.11
NVDA
Rolled $NVDA Feb 28 2020 285/295 #BuPS // Mar-20-2020 @Net Debit of 1.35. Was STO 2/20 @1.4 credit, so this will be barely breakeven if things recover by then.
#DRIP Probably a bad idea,…
Probably a bad idea, but…
STO DRIP Sep18’20 160 CALL@$27.80
I appreciate your suggestions with…
I appreciate your suggestions with this down market I have 3280/3300 BuPS expiring today, now it down in under water, it is currently at $20, what is the best action avoiding losing the $20/contract? I appreciate your input.
VXX gaming
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY March 20th 16 calls for 2.25 (against long 25’s and 30’s)
Sold $VXX March 20th 18 calls for 1.64 (against long 25’s and 27’s)
TSLA closed
BTC $TSLA Feb 28th 1100 #ShortCalls for 1.00. Sold for 5.00 on 2/13. Wish I would have sold for $11.00 plus that they hit last week!
STNE
BTC March 13, 39.5 put at 2.00, sold at 2.05
SHAK earnings analysis
#Earnings $SHAK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 4, 2019 AC -20.63% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 5, 2019 AC +18.24% Biggest UP
May 2, 2019 AC -4.30%
Feb. 25, 2019 AC +0.42%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -13.88%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -11.88%
May 3, 2018 AC +18.01%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -7.71%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -3.36%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -5.45%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.20%
March 1, 2017 AC -2.63%
Avg (+ or -) 9.64%
Bias -2.00%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 74.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 63.23 to 84.77
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 66.86 to 81.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (20.6%): 58.73 to 89.27
Based on UP max only (+18.2%): 87.50
Note: FIVE-day max moves are -26.30% and +25.21%. In most cases, SHAK continued in the same direction in the days following earnings.
Open to requests for other symbols.
SOXL TQQQ
First day of trading for April. Guess the big move caught them by surprise. Stocks are both well below the lowest put strikes. Hopefully more tomorrow.
PANW earnings analysis
#Earnings $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 25, 2019 AC -11.95%
Sept. 4, 2019 AC +5.76%
May 29, 2019 AC -5.11%
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +8.20%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 7.97%
Bias 0.72%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 237.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 219.01 to 254.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 218.12 to 255.88
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 179.76 to 294.24
Based on UP max only (+17.2%): 277.76
Note: FIVE-day max moves are -23.93% and +18.49%, so not much difference.
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPY
#ShortPuts – Starting out with selling around the 200ma. It looks a long way down to it but nothing would surprise me…
Sold SPY APR 17 2020 310.0 Put @ 5.20
Sold SPY MAY 15 2020 300.0 Put @ 4.65
NTAP
#CoveredCalls – Only stock I ended up with during this earnings season…
Bought to Close NTAP FEB 28 2020 54.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.35)
Sold NTAP MAR 20 2020 51.0 Calls @ 1.39
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – New position in a different account…
Sold UVXY JUN 19 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.16
ROKU
#ShortStrangles – Rolling call side down to the expected move and at a lot of resistance.
Rolled ROKU MAR 20 2020 145.0 Call to MAR 20 2020 130.0 Call @ 2.05 credit (7.25 total now)
ULTA
#ShortPuts – No big hurry on this one. Stopped out and looking for a re-entry at some point.
Bought to Close ULTA MAR 6 2020 277.5 Put @ 2.65 (sold for 2.85)
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Adding a little and closed the rest of another one.
Sold UVXY JUN 19 2020 15.0/25.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.80
Sold UVXY JUN 19 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.12
Taking a little more of the nearer term off…
Bought to Close UVXY MAR 20 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .75 (sold for 1.17)
Expirations / Rolls / Assignments Oh My!
#optionsexpiration
$HLF 37 put (earnings) Thank you @jeffcp66
$OLED 165/170 BUPS Thank you @jeffcp66
$MRVL 30 call
$TSLA 690/700 BECS Total Loss Don’t ask
$QCOM 85/95 BUCS BTO at 4.72 STC 1.80
#coveredcalls
$NUGT BTC 2/28 33 call and STO /20 36 at .58 debit.
#assignment
$SAVE 45 put
$CVS 75 put
Take care everyone.
#optionsexpiration OX $ENPH Feb 21…
OX $ENPH Feb 21 27.5 #shortputs STO for 1.02 on 1/6/2020
OX $TSLA Feb 21 1000 Calls – STO Yesterday @2.00
OX $OSTK Feb 21 9.5 #CoveredCalls STO for 0.25 on 2/6/2020
OX $T Feb 21 40 #CoveredCalls. STO 1/02/2020 @0.5.
MSFT
STO April 17, 150 put at 1.04
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 24th 3245/3265-3375/3395 condors for 1.40. IV: 11.58%, SPX 3331, deltas -.07, +.07
Expiring: Feb 21st 3295/3315-33405/3425 condors, sold yesterday for .80
DRIP
#BearCallSpreads #ShortCalls – Changing up my strateegery in this one to be more of a scalping play similar to others here on the forum. Swapping more call spreads for less (and higher) naked calls.
Bought to Close DRIP MAR 20 2020 140.0/160.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 2.48 (sold for 2.25)
Rolling that small loss into this one:
Sold DRIP JUN 19 2020 160.0 Call @ 10.40
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Adding to previous sales at slightly higher premiums…
Sold UVXY JUN 19 2020 15.0/25.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.40
OLED closed
#Earnings Bought to close $OLED Feb 21st 170/165 put spreads for .55. Sold yesterday fr 1.75.
LABU TNA TQQQ
#ShortPuts – Adding and starting….
LABU: Adding here.
Sold LABU MAR 20 2020 45.0 Put @ 1.23
TNA: Starter position.
Sold TNA MAR 27 2020 60.0 Put @ 1.30
TQQQ: Starter position.
Sold TQQQ MAR 27 2020 80.0 Put @ 1.50
LABU, NUGT
LABU, STO March 13, 47.5 put at 1.30
NUGT, STO June 19, 52 call at 3.20, following Ramie
Bad TICK
Today we hit the lowest NTSE $TICK reading since last August. Maybe correction time?
Econ Calendar for week of 2/24/20
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
Going back into NUGT calls
My first position shorting calls in quite a while. Sold $NUGT 6/19 52 call @ 3.00. Highest strike in June. Starting slowly.
Sep DRIP
Sold $DRIP 9/18 160 call @ 17.00. Highest strike.
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Setting up my call spreads to finance the next put roll. Puts are at 19 and 21 so selling 15/25 spreads around them to go with the existing 20/30s.
Sold UVXY JUN 19 2020 15.0/25.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.25
UVXY
#ShortPuts #BearCallSpreads – Still have some annoying ITM short puts so using the little spike to get a slightly better roll price. Financed with call spreads I had them bracketed with. As long as UVXY hangs between 10-15 I’ll be able to continue rolling. When the next reverse split is announced I’ll roll them as far out and down as I can and then continue selling against them.
Rolled UVXY MAR 20 2020 21.0 Puts to JUN 19 2020 19.0 Puts @ .47 debit
Rolled UVXY MAR 20 2020 23.0 Puts to JUN 19 2020 21.0 Puts @ .65 debit
Completely paid for by closing half this position. I’ll hold the other half for my time and trouble…LOL
Bought to Close UVXY MAR 20 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .26 (sold for 1.17)
NVDA 3/20
Sold $NVDA 3/20 270 put @ 4.20
OLED Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – You never know what the next headline will be so taking this off now. Actually closed put side and will let calls expire…
Bought to Close OLED FEB 21 2020 157.5/185.0/187.5 Jade Lizard @ .35 (sold for 2.75)
ROKU
#ShortStrangles – Just messing around with this one contract 120/190 strangle. Rolling call side down to reduce deltas by half.
Rolled ROKU MAR 20 2020 190.0 Call to MAR 20 2020 145.0 Call @ 1.70 credit (5.20 total now)
TSLA
BTC February 28, 550/1300 strangle at 1.85, sold at 3.65, Trying to move more into cash because I think the Corona virus is worse than what is being reported.
NUGT rising
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $NUGT Sept 52 calls for 4.80.
SEDG NVDA TSLA
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Feb 21st 3295/3315-3405/3425 condors for .80, IV: 11.99%, SPX 3371, deltas -.06, +.05
KOLD
#BearCallSpreads – Got aggressive to get out of this one this morning. Glad I did….it’s been underwater from almost the minute I sold it.
Bought to Close KOLD FEB 21 2020 45.0 Call @ 1.70 (sold 45/53 @ 1.77)
NVDA
#ShortPuts – Missed the bigger down move this morning but take what I can get…
Sold NVDA Mar 13 2020 280.0 Put @ 2.74
OLED Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Selling the put with breakeven outside the expected move.
Sold OLED FEB 21 2020 157.5/185.0/187.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.75
OLED put spread
#Earnings A bullish position for a stock that has bullish tendency on earnings.
Sold to Open $OLED Feb 21st 170/165 put spreads for 1.70.
#earnings DE Sold March 20,…
#earnings DE
Sold March 20, 150/155/175/180 #ironcondor for 1.76. Thanks for the data Jeff.
NVDA
STO April 3, 270 put at 4.35
Trimming DRIP
Bought to close 3/20 140 call @ 1.95. Sold for 4.30 on 1/24.
UVXY
#ShortCalls – Booking and adding…
Bought to Close UVXY FEB 21 2020 13.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for .72)
Sold UVXY MAR 13 2020 12.5 Calls @ .95
WPM
STO April 17, 30 puts at .63
DE earnings analysis
#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 27, 2019 BO -4.29%
Aug. 16, 2019 BO +3.84%
May 17, 2019 BO -7.65% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30% Biggest UP
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Avg (+ or -) 4.00%
Bias 0.76%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 165.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.30 to 171.70
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 158.41 to 171.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.7%): 152.38 to 177.62
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 177.05
Open to requests for other symbols.
OLED earnings analysis
#Earnings $OLED reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +15.27%
Aug. 1, 2019 AC -1.64%
May 2, 2019 AC +8.76%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +23.03%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -20.50% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 9, 2018 AC +13.54%
May 3, 2018 AC +12.43%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -15.81%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +9.52%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -1.30%
May 4, 2017 AC +23.87% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +20.08%
Avg (+ or -) 13.81%
Bias 7.27%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 159.33 to 195.67
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 153.41 to 202.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.9%): 135.51 to 220.49
Based on DOWN max only (-20.5%): 141.51
Open to requests for other symbols.
ETFC
Morgan Stanley has agreed a $13bn all-stock deal to buy online trading platform ETrade, in a sharp escalation of the battle for the US wealth management market.
Question about owning dividend stocks…
Question about owning dividend stocks vs. selling options on the same stocks.
A question came up about returns and benefits of owning dividend paying stocks.
Some argue that holding dividend stocks is a passive strategy that nets 3-5% dividend + possible stock price increase.
On the other hand, selling premium in the same stocks can possibly net 10% per year, while providing a lot of flexibility, like staying out of earnings, using different strategies, etc..
Considering similar risk and possibly lower returns, is it worth it to own dividend stocks?
What is your oppinion?
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 21st 3395 calls for .30. Condors sold for .95 yesterday.
SEDG earnings analysis
#Earnings $SEDG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 6, 2019 AC -0.01%
Aug. 6, 2019 AC +25.11% Biggest UP
May 6, 2019 AC +22.69%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC +1.46%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -7.99%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -13.94% Biggest DOWN
May 9, 2018 AC +16.53%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +24.25%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +19.38%
May 9, 2017 AC +11.04%
Feb. 14, 2017 AC +4.15%
Nov. 9, 2016 AC -0.71%
Avg (+ or -) 12.27%
Bias 8.50%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 123.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 108.93 to 138.07
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 108.34 to 138.66
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (25.1%): 92.49 to 154.51
Based on DOWN max only (-13.9%): 106.28
Open to requests for other symbols.
SEDG
Jeff – if you get a chance – SEDG has earnings tonight, I believe.
DRIP
BTC March 20, 184 calls at .30 cents, sold at 2.42
TSLA IV and the power of vega
Was wondering why my TSLA short put roll was doing so well already even with a down move in the stock. Out of curiosity I took a screen shot of the IV right after the roll this morning. Compared that to one from just a few minutes ago. Interesting! I’ve always read that a massive upside move can increase volatility similar to a big downside move. This is a rare time where you can really see it. 3 hour time difference here…
STMP Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Absolutely do not trust this one so playing a Jade Lizard way to the downside with breakeven at almost 2x the expected move. No upside risk but definitely need a down move to make much. Perfect number would be down 20…LOL
Sold STMP FEB 21 2020 65.0/80.0/83.0 Jade Lizards @ 3.26
SPCE
#ShortPuts – I’ll take it for a one night stand…
Bought to Close SPCE FEB 21 2020 26.0 Puts @ .20 (sold for .92)
#earningsSPCE BTC 21 Feb 27P…
#earningsSPCE
BTC 21 Feb 27P for .30
Was STO yesterday for 1.25
Earnings next Tuesday, I think I’ll skip it due to lack of historical data
TSLA
STO February 28, 550/1300 strangle for 3.65
TSLA management
Shaking my head in wonder but I have to do something here. Stock is just about through my 3/20 900/920 bear call spread (it was worse earlier) so I just sold the 3/20 800/780 bull put spread for 5.35 bringing the total collected to 9.35 for a 20 point spread. If it calms down a bit I may be able to get out of this. If not I’ll roll the put spread up and collect as much as I can before letting the stock declare victory.
EXAS Put closed / ROKU BUPS Closed and Opened / NUGT Put / AAPL BUPS / ROKU Call
#shortputs
$EXAS BTC 3/20 82.50 put at .40. STO at 3.60 on 1/14. Thank you @jsd501
$NUGT STO 2/28 31 put at .40
#bups
$ROKU BTC 2/21 110/120 BUPS at .50. STO 1/15 at 2.85. Had GTC order at .50
$ROKU STO 3/20 110/120 BUPS at 2.41
$AAPL STO 3/20 300/310 BUPS at 1.80 Thank you @ramie77
#coveredcalls
$ROKU STO 2/21 135 call at 1.15
AMZN BuPS
STC 28 Feb 1985/1995 for .78
Was STO Feb 7 for 2.66
Just wanted to free up a bit of capitol
TSLA
#ShortPuts – Can’t believe I’m doing this. @Iceman is correct it’s Crazytown. Rolling a short put up 125 points and still 100 points outside the expected move. Setting the new strike just above the rapidly rising 50ma…
Rolled TSLA MAR 20 2020 500.0 Put to MAR 20 2020 625.0 Put @ 4.00 credit (7.10 total now)
TSLA
Rolled $TSLA Feb 28 850 call // Mar 06 950 -$35.00.
Not sure thats going to be enough to get out in front of it.
Had a moment yesterday where I was thinking I’d close the 850’s at roughly even money from yesterdays roll, but I hesitated to avoid notching a day trade.
Options Bistro 