BTC $ENPH Mar 20 $35 puts @0.15. STO 2/18 @1.8. Partial fill so far.
Planning let my Feb 21 $27.5’s expire Friday, but no reason to let the March ones sit for 30 days.
Monthly Archives: February 2020
Z earnings analysis
#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2019 AC +12.29%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC -15.29%
May 9, 2019 AC +5.04%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Avg (+ or -) 11.01%
Bias -1.74%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 53.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 47.10 to 59.90
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 47.61 to 59.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 39.10 to 67.90
Based on UP max only (+26.4%): 67.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
STMP earnings analysis
#Earnings $STMP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2019 AC +12.28%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +27.46%
May 8, 2019 AC -55.75%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -57.76% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 31, 2018 AC -9.74%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.43%
May 3, 2018 AC +3.91%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC +11.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -22.59%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +35.88% Biggest UP
May 3, 2017 AC -0.40%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -1.60%
Avg (+ or -) 20.57%
Bias -4.07%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 93.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 72.11 to 113.89
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 73.87 to 112.13
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (57.8%): 39.28 to 146.72
Based on UP max only (+35.9%): 126.37
Open to requests for other symbols.
HLF closed
#Earnings Bought to close $HLF Feb 21st 37 #ShortPuts for .05. Sold yesterday for .73
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 19th 3305/3325-3395/3415 condors for .95, IV 10.00%, SPX 3369, deltas -.07, +.07
Expiring: Feb 18th 3295/3315-3410/3430 condors, sold Friday for 1.05
HLF earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $HLF reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 29, 2019 AC +11.67%
Aug. 1, 2019 AC -6.77% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2019 AC -4.51%
Feb. 19, 2019 AC -2.01%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -2.61%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +13.03% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 AC +4.47%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC +3.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -2.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC -1.95%
May 4, 2017 AC +11.57%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -4.51%
Avg (+ or -) 5.75%
Bias 1.54%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 39.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.89 to 42.11
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 36.76 to 41.24
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.00%): 33.92 to 44.08
Based on DOWN max only (-6.8%): 36.36
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPCE
#ShortPuts – A small starter position just to get involved. Earnings next week with huge IV so good for a roll or covered call sale if needed.
Sold SPCE FEB 21 2020 26.0 Puts @ .92
AVGO
#ShortPuts – Now that I’m back in SOXL I’m taking this one off for risk reduction in the whole China semiconductor virus thing. Earnings in March so still watcing it.
Bought to Close AVGO MAR 06 2020 287.5 Put @ 1.30 (sold for 2.21)
Selling puts on AAPL
Sold $AAPL 3/20 305/295 bull put spread @ 1.78
SLB
#ShortPuts – Thanks @Iceman haven’t been in this one in ages. Great divvy down here too…
Sold SLB MAR 13 2020 32.0 Puts @ .63
FB
BTC $FB Feb-21-2020 195/205 #BuPS @0.08. Was STO 1/29 as a Feb 07 @1.2, then rolled to Feb 21 on 1/31 for +0.5.
ISRG
STO $ISRG Mar-21-2020 560/570 #BuPS @1.55.
LK PUTS Rolled
#shortputs
$LK BTC 2/21 40 put and STO 2/28 40 put at 1.25 credit. Stock at 40.30.
ENPH
STO $ENPH Mar-20-2020 35 Puts @1.85.
Holding $ENPH Feb-21-2020 27.5 puts, but looking for close or expire this week.
GILD
#ShortPuts – Adding in a different account…
Sold GILD MAR 13 2020 65.0 Puts @ 1.34
GSX Puts Rolled
#shortputs
$GSX BTC 2/21 30 put and STO 3/20 35 put at $2 added credit
LABU
#ShortPuts – Starter position…
Sold LABU MAR 13 2020 47.5 Put @ 1.30
GSX Puts / NVTA Calls Rolled / GSX NUGT Calls / BIDU BUPS Closed
#shortputs
$GSX STO 2/21 35 PUTS AT .60
#coveredcalls
$NVTA BTC 3/20 25 call and STO 3/20 30 call at debit of 2.33 Stock at 26.81.
$GSX STO 2/21 40 call at 1.55
$NUGT STO 2/21 31.50 call at .89
#bups
$BIDU BTC 2/21 125/130 BUPS at .40. STO at 1.50
PGNY
BTO March 20, 35/40 bull call spread at 1.80 with stock making new high.
UVXY
#ShortCalls – Sold UVXY MAR 13 2020 12.5 Calls @ .78
SOXL
#ShortPuts – Sold SOXL MAR 20 2020 205.0 Put @ 3.00
TSLA
Rolled $TSLA FEB-21-2020 825 short calls // Feb-28-2020 850 calls +$2.00.
Still selling against Mar-20-2020 585 longs.
Friday Trades ANET ROKU NVDA LULU
BTC $ANET Feb-14-2020 205/215 #BuPS @0.10. Was STO 1/28/2020 @1.83
BTC $ROKU Feb-21-2020 112/122 #BuPS @.22. Was STO 1/13/2020 @2.25
BTC $NVDA Feb-21-2020 225/230 #BuPS @0.05. Was STO 1/15/2020 @1.17.
BTC $LULU Feb-28-2020 222.5/232.5 #BuPS @0.14. Was STO 1/27/2020 @1.40.
Could have let the ANET expire, turns out.
AMAT
On 11/15/19 STO AMAT Dec 6 62/63/62 #jadelizard @2.14….on 11/22/19 with the 62 Put DITM it was rolled out til Dec 13 for 0.24 credit….11/22 BTC 62/63 BeCS @0.05 debit….
12/11/19 assigned on the 62 Put with a cost basis of $59.68….
Six #coveredcalls have been sold reducing my cost basis to $56.84……With the stock closing today 2/14/20 at $66.85 I was called away at $66.00
Expirations
#optionsexpiration #earnings
$ROKU 122 put Thank you @fuzzball STO 2.97
$ANET 215 put Thank you @fuzzball STO 2.90
$SHOP 460/465 BUPS STO 1.35
#optionsexpiration
$SPX 1 DTE Thank you @jeff
$AMRN 20 call
$PFE 38 call
$ROKU 120 put STO on 12/10 for earnings at 4.85.
$NUGT 30 call
$NUGT 32 call
$MRVL 24 put
$ROKU 140 call Too bad I still have the stock ($131 – $151 range for today)
Happy Valentine’s Day
Have a terrific three day weekend
SPX 1-dte & expirations
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 18th 3295/3315-3410/3430 condors for 1.05, IV 7.86%, SPX 3372, deltas -.07, +.06.
Winners:
Expiring: Feb 14th 3310/3330-3405/3425 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05
Expiring: $SHOP Feb 14th 465/460 put spreads, sold Tuesday for 1.416
Losers:
Expiring: $YELP 31 short puts and 39 short calls. Calendars bought for .303 total…. long positions remain for next Friday, but a long shot.
$TAP #DoubleCalendars closed for .01 debit. Lost total of .31.
PANW
#ShortPuts – Another one getting green quickly so booking it too. Earnings on the 24th for a possible re-entry.
Bought to Close PANW FEB 21 2020 237.5 Put @ .35 (sold for 2.05)
Closing HES
Bought to close $HES 3/20 52.50 puts 2 .45. Sold for 1.15 on 1/29.
New Ticker….SPCE
Buddy of mine called my attention to this. IV through the roof and earnings on the 25th. Weeklies also. Something to watch.
Completing ROKU iron condor
Sold $ROKU 3/20 115/110 bull put spread @ 1.25 to complete the iron condor with the 160/165 bear call spread I sold earlier today. Total premium taken in for the IC 2.55, a little more than 50% of the width of the strikes.
TSLA
#ShortPuts – Really sucking the volatility out of these today. Gotta book it for a 3 day trade…
Bought to Close TSLA MAR 13 2020 550.0 Put @ 2.19 (sold for 6.10)
The Hall of Rotating Presidents
In honor of Monday’s holiday, Options Bistro presents the third annual Hall of Rotating Presidents. If you don’t like the President who appears in the upper right, just click “Home/REFRESH” (or refresh your browser) and a new one will appear!
Have a great three-day weekend!
Econ Calendar for week of 2/17/20
Link to Calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
ANET BUPS Closed
#bups
$ANET BTC 2/21 185/200 BUPS at .20. STO 1/23 at 1.80
AYX
BTO January 2021, 155 call
STO January 2021, 170 call
STO January 2021, 150 put.
Total credit of 18.05 on the trade. Worse case is that I own AYX at 132
NTAP
#CoveredCalls – I’ll be taking some stock in a tax free account. Can’t sell naked calls so going with an early spread to get the long weekend.
Sold NTAP FEB 28 2020 54.0/59.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.35
#earningsGILD BTC Jade Liz 21…
#earningsGILD
BTC Jade Liz 21 feb 66P/68C/69C for .55
Was STO 4 Feb prior to earnings for 1.45
Taking risk off prior to weekend
Thanks Jeff for all the data.
NVDA Put Closed / ROKU Calls Rolled
#earnings #shortputs
$NVDA BTC 2/14 250 put at .20. STO yesterday at 2.55. Thank you @fuzzball.
#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 2/14 140 call and STO 2/21 145 call at .15 credit plus gain $5 if called away. Breakeven at 139.85. Unfortunately, stock looking like a lead balloon right now.
ANET NVDA ROKU TSLA UDOW
#ShortPuts #ShortStrangles #Earnings – 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
ANET: Take what I can get. Might re-load on more weakness.
Bought to Close ANET FEB 14 2020 215.0 Put @ 1.20 (sold for 3.40)
NVDA: Earnings quickie.
Bought to Close NVDA FEB 21 2020 250.0 Put @ .10 (sold for 2.80)
ROKU: Wow is all I can say. Also, thanks @Ramie for the idea on the new trade.
Bought to Close ROKU FEB 14 2020 115.0/175.0 Strangles @ .06 (sold for 2.75)
Bought to Close ROKU FEB 14 2020 122.0 Put @ .04 (sold for 3.10)
Bought to Close ROKU FEB 21 2020 115.0 Put @ .09 (sold for 2.43)
And:
Sold ROKU MAR 20 2020 120.0/190.0 Strangle @ 3.50
TSLA: Book early and re-load.
Bought to Close TSLA MAR 06 2020 450.0 Put @ .90 (sold for 4.00)
Sold TSLA MAR 20 2020 500.0 Put @ 3.10
UDOW:
Bought to Close UDOW FEB 21 2020 122.0 Put @ .30 (sold for 2.05)
Fading ROKU
Sold $ROKU 3/20 160/165 bear call spread @ 1.30
BABA Puts Closed
#earnings #shortputs
$BABA BTC 2/14 212.5 puts at .14. STO yesterday at 1.13. TTMAR rather than LTMAC.
ROKU Earnings
#ShortStrangles #Earnings – Late fill…
Sold ROKU FEB 14 2020 115.0/175.0 Strangles @ 2.75
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 14th 3310/3330-3405/3425 condors for 1.05, IV 10.76%, SPX 3378, deltas -.07, +.07
ROKU earnings analysis
#Earnings $ROKU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 9 quarters (its entire history).
Nov. 6, 2019 AC -16.01%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +20.85%
May 8, 2019 AC +28.11%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +25.23%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -22.29% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +21.31%
May 9, 2018 AC -1.71%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC -17.71%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +54.93% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 23.13%
Bias 10.30%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 140.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 117.10 to 162.90
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 9 quarters: 107.62 to 172.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 9 Q’s (54.9%): 63.10 to 216.90
Based on DOWN max only (-22.3%): 108.79
Open to requests for other symbols.
TSLA calls
#ShortCalls Sold to Open $TSLA Feb 28th 1100 calls for 5.00. Will look to add a put side on next pull back.
UNH
#ShortPuts – Taking some risk off a couple weeks early…
Bought to Close UNH MAR 06 2020 245.0 Put @ .35 (sold for 2.91)
#fallingknife PAYC BTC PAYC 21…
#fallingknife PAYC
BTC PAYC 21 Feb 280 Put for .50
Was STO Feb 6 for 3.42
LABU
#ShortPuts – Completely out of this one again…
Bought to Close LABU FEB 21 2020 48.0 Put @ .15 (sold for 1.92)
ISRG
BTC $ISRG Feb-21-2020 550/560 #BuPS @0.17. Was STO Jan-12-2020 for 1.25.
ANET NVDA ROKU Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Taking a small shot at each of these…
Sold ANET FEB 14 2020 215.0 Put @ 3.40
Sold NVDA FEB 21 2020 250.0 Put @ 2.80 (went out an extra week)
Sold ROKU FEB 14 2020 122.0 Put @ 3.10
TSLA
Rolled $TSLA Feb-14-2020 800 short Calls // Feb-21-2020 825 Calls @8.00 credit.
Selling against Mar-20-2020 longs.
YELP “double calendar”
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar in quotes because I placed them near the expected moves rather than ATM. So maybe call it #EMDC. YELP tends to move, but rather not risk the $4+ to buy a Straddle.
Bought $YELP Feb14/Feb21 39 #CallCalendar for .17
Bought $YELP Feb14/Feb21 31 #PutCalendar for .133
You may be able to get these a bit cheaper. I bid below mid-price and was filled instantly on both.
ANET earnings analysis
#Earnings $ANET reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 31, 2019 AC -24.23% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2019 AC -10.32%
May 2, 2019 AC -10.43%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +9.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +6.97%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC +3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC +18.85%
Avg (+ or -) 12.25%
Bias -0.70%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 232.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 208.47 to 256.53
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 204.45 to 261.55
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 176.54 to 289.46
Based on UP max only (+19.4%): 278.27
Open to requests for other symbols.
YELP earnings analysis
#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2019 AC +15.43%
Aug. 8, 2019 AC +5.20%
May 9, 2019 AC -14.37%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66% Biggest UP
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Avg (+ or -) 14.21%
Bias -1.72%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 35.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.81 to 39.79
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 30.28 to 40.32
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 25.54 to 45.06
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 25.91
Open to requests for other symbols.
NVDA earnings analysis
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 14, 2019 AC -2.66%
Aug. 15, 2019 AC +7.25%
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82% Biggest UP
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Avg (+ or -) 6.44%
Bias 0.03%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 270.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 251.44 to 288.56
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 252.62 to 287.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.8%): 219.38 to 320.63
Based on UP max only (+17.8%): 318.11
Open to requests for other symbols.
SWKS Strangle Closed
#earnings #shortstrangles
$SWKS BTC 2/21 110/145 strangle at .15. STO 1/23 for 1.67. Thank you @jsd501
BABA Earnings
#earnings #shortputs #becs
$BABA STO 2/14 212.50 put at 1.13
$BABA STO 2/14 235/240 BECS at .92
NTAP Earnings
#ShortPuts – Not much out there to do right now. A couple accounts with no positions at all completely in cash. I’ll take a small shot here.
Sold NTAP FEB 14 2020 57.5 Puts @ .79
#doublecalendarYELP I have not modeled…
I have not modeled it yet, but at first glance, YELP has a large IV drop coming.
Thoughts?
TAP dance
#Earnings . Bought to close $TAP Feb 14th 58 calls for .10. This will clear the way for a bigger profit if stock recovers. #DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for .17 and .20
FB
SPX closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 12th 3385 calls for .40. Condors sold for 1.05 yesterday. Expected-move stop was hit this morning.
Closing UNH
Bought to close $UNH 3/20 250P @ .94. Sold for 4.50 on 1/31.
Rolling BA
From my adjusted iron condor (to a 330/340/350 iron butterfly in 2/21), rolled to 3/20 335/345/350/360 iron condor @ .63 credit. Total premium for position now 6.94 against 10 point wide wings. Stock at 346.80.
TRADES:
OSTK STO 2/21/20 9.0 CALLS @.50
SPCE BTO STOCK @21.82 & 22.17
SPCE STO 2/21/20 24.0 CALLS @.93
PANW
#ShortPuts – One of the few red bars I’m seeing today. Selling pretty tight at the 50ma but it’s the week before earnings so should have great premium to roll or sell into if needed.
Sold PANW FEB 21 2020 237.5 Put @ 2.05
EXAS Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Not worth holding for 3 more days…
Bought to Close EXAS FEB 14 2020 87.5 Puts @ .15 (sold for 1.05)
SHOP Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Thanks for playing. See you in 3 months!
Bought to Close SHOP FEB 14 2020 450.0 Put @ .10 (sold for 5.10)
GILD
#ShortPuts – Adding to a previous sale…
Sold GILD MAR 06 2020 65.0 Puts @ 1.30
BABA earnings analysis
#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 1, 2019 BO -0.11%
Aug. 15, 2019 BO +3.02%
May 15, 2019 BO +1.57%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +6.33% Biggest UP
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Avg (+ or -) 2.75%
Bias 0.71%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 221.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 210.84 to 232.16
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 215.41 to 227.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 207.48 to 235.52
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 208.43
Open to requests for other symbols.
AMAT earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 14, 2019 AC +8.95% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2019 AC -1.12%
May 16, 2019 AC +2.49%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC +1.08%
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -7.71%
May 17, 2018 AC -8.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +3.89%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC -2.33%
Aug. 17, 2017 AC +2.73%
May 18, 2017 AC +0.38%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC -0.87%
Avg (+ or -) 3.65%
Bias -0.39%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 65.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 61.61 to 68.39
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 62.63 to 67.37
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 59.18 to 70.82
Based on DOWN max only (-8.2%): 59.64
Open to requests for other symbols.
Electrified
Looks like $SHOP is trying to pull a $TSLA this morning.
#coveredcalls $OKTA BTC 2/14 134…
#coveredcalls
$OKTA BTC 2/14 134 and STO 2/21 137 call at .40 debit. Stock at 137.25
$GSX BTC 2/21 40 and STO 3/20 45 call at .65 debit. Stock then fell $4.50 to 36.23. Oh timing where art thou sting?
SHOP
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 12th 3295/3315-3385/3405 condors for 1.05. IV 10.30%, SPX 3357, deltas -.08, +.07
Options Bistro 