smasty 10:18 am on Monday, January 8, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy

#Fuzzy Biotechs Big move in…

#Fuzzy Biotechs
Big move in Biotechs this morning after talking about some positions over the weekend–definite pain in EXAS/EXEL/GWPH/CELG. I’ve got two fuzzies in EXAS, one was hedged and DITM, one was unhedged. Luckily my vow to really try to not overtrade these paid off today since I didn’t jump the gun on managing the DITM hedge on EXAS. So I was able to BTC the Jan 12 55 calls for 50% gain (.70 vs 1.35). EXAS pre-announced quarterly earnings, they are presenting this week at the JPM conf, so continued volatility this week is expected.

CELG: I used the AS-BB osc. to cover my hedge for $2300 profit and eventually reset the hedge. BTC Jan 12 107 c for .40 (sold for 2.70), STO Jan12 105c for .76. CELG is now my oldest fuzzy with a total collected hedge now of $4100.00 (yesterday’s report was wrong-cell ranges were missing on my spreadsheet formulas). The synthetic line is $110…so hedging has absolutely saved this position (though it still has net loss). I have collected 1.72 OVER the initial trade debit. Earnings coming up.

QQQ: I shut it down for net $1171 profit. My rolls have been sloppy, I’d like to reset with the tighter put that I’m using now on indexes. In my weekend work, I show QQQ with lagging strength over SPY.

SPY Unhedged Fuzzy: Added Feb 273/273/269 for 2.51 x 15

DIA Unhedged Fuzzy: Added Feb 252/252/248 for 2.17 x 15

hcgdavis 5:29 pm on Sunday, January 7, 2018
Tags: Fuzzies ( 40 ), Fuzzy

Short post, promise but a…

Short post, promise but a few graphs that will take up some space. JPM as example. First graph is a synthetic long selling a 1 week 110 call without the downside protection. Looks like a regular covered call and it should, it is a synthetic covered call (this is what motley fool does a lot of). Second graph uncapped, looks like buying stock but there is no downside protection so would have to have the cash or margin to buy at the put strike. Third graph is a #fuzzy with 5 point disaster protection put. Looks more like a long calendar spread because of the extra cost of the put protection. That is why you would want to sell weekly or monthly calls against it, to lower the cost basis on the debit of the leap spread and the put protection. I personally would probably go 10 points wide but this shows you could do it in a recently funded IRA for 5000 max risk if JPM is not too big to fail.

I am not recommending this trade but I think @smasty160 has a similar trade running.

Hope that helps for people trying to wrap their head around #fuzzies and learn visually, I know I learn better with a visual.

smasty 10:26 am on Sunday, January 7, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy

#Fuzzy Weekly Report Open Fuzzies…

#Fuzzy Weekly Report
Open Fuzzies (Oldest first)
“Revised Debits” are dropping very slowly due to rollups on hedges.
1. CELG (Mar 110/110/100) Core Debit: 2.38 Net Collected: 1.04 Revised Debit: 1.34 Hedged Jan12
2. RCL (Mar 125/125/115) Core Debit: 3.59 Net collected: 2.36 Revised Debit: 1.23 Hedged Jan12
3. FAS-1 (Apr 70/70/60) Core Debit: 2.08 Net Collected: 1.58 Revised Debit: .50 Hedged Jan12 ITM
4. FAS-2 (Apr 70/70/60) Core Debit: 2.12 Net Collected: 1.57 Revised Debit: .55 Hedged Jan12 ITM
5. LMT-1 (Mar 320/320/310) Core Debit: 6.20 Net Collected: 2.81 Revised Debit: 3.39 Hedged Jan19 ITM
6. LMT-2 (Mar 320/320/310) Core Debit: 6.20 Net Collected: 2.88 Revised Debit: 3.32 Hedged Jan19 ITM
7. QQQ (Apr 158/158/148) Core Debit: 2.73 Net Collected: .96 Revised Debit: 1.77 Hedged Jan19
8. IWM (Mar 151/151/141) Core Debit: 2.25 Net Collected: .57 Revised Debit: 1.68 Hedged Jan12
9. MCD (Mar 170/170/160) Core Debit: 3.12 Net Collected: .79 Revised Debit: 2.33 Hedged Jan19
10. CMCSA (lazy river) (Apr 40/40/35) Core Debit: 1.38 Net Collected: .94 Revised Debit: .44 Hedged Jan 12
11. AAPL (Apr 170/170/160) Core Debit: 5.27 Net Collected: 1.25 Revised Debit: 4.02 Hedged Jan19
12. CVX (Jun 125/125/115) Core Debit: 2.33 Net Collected: .94 Revised Debit: 1.39 Hedged Jan12
13. EXAS (Apr 50/50/45) Core Debit: 6.15 Net Collected: 1.35 Revised Debit: 4.80 Hedged Jan12 ITM
14. MNST (Lazy River) (Jun 60/60/55) Core Debit: 5.13 Net Collected: .50 Revised Debit: 4.63 Hedged Jan12
15. SPY x 4 (4 accts) (Jun 272/272/268) Core Debit: 6.98 Net Collected .58 Revised Debit: 6.40 Hedged Jan17
The total amount of hedges on above, included debit rolls and open hedges is $20,950.00. Almost everything I do is 10-lots.

Unhedged Fuzzies:
EXAS: Apr 50/50/45 @ 6.15 x10
EXEL: May 31/31/27 @ 2.55 x10
GWPH: May 135/135/125 @ 9.65 x 5
SPY: Feb 273/273/269 @2.31 x10

Closed Fuzzies:
LMT: $773 Net
TWTR: $440
NUE: (340)
DWDP: $1500
CSX: $1300
JPM: $3230
BABA: $1560

fuzzballl 10:33 am on Saturday, January 6, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy, SyntheticStock ( 356 )

Synthetic Stock…Repair of Weekly Sales

Scroll to the very bottom for the Cliff’s notes if you’d like… 🙂 🙂

#SyntheticStock #Fuzzy – While criss crossing the country this week I’ve had plenty of time to think about things (besides the mountains around Eagle CO and the cyclone in NYC…LOL)

I’ve got a couple synthetic long positions where the weekly call sale has gone ITM. Not surprising in this market but still annoying. Most of the trades are still profitable but it’s more fun when they are REALLY profitable. So…what can I do once they’re so DITM that rolling up and out becomes nearly impossible?

I’m going to use my most extreme example here…

Currently holding AMZN Jun 2019 synthetic short at 1050. It started out as 1000 synthetic but I rolled up a couple months ago to bring a little cash back in. For quite awhile I was selling weekly calls around the 950 to 1000 level while AMZN chopped around down there. They then had an earnings surprise and stock took off and hasn’t stopped since.

My current short call is Jan 2018 monthly at 1010. Obviously DITM so what can I do?

When looking at the overall position and imagining this at expiration, my profit is capped at the level of the short call so the goal is to get that as high as possible.

My plan is to roll the synthetic up to a level I’m comfortable with as far as AMZN support goes. Then…take the credit and use it to roll the ITM short call up. This accomplishes two things. First, the call can be rolled for around even and up a slightly greater distance than the synthetic moves up. Secondly, the short call becomes less DITM so it becomes more rollable in the future (that’s the most important thing I think).

So…what’s the risk? An AMZN implosion is the risk…LOL. For now I’m not rolling up the disaster put since the DITM short call actually provides a nice hedge of it’s own on pullbacks. If the short call were to become out of the money then that might be a signal to ease the disaster put up. Until then, I’m not wasting cash on it.

Hopefully I’ve explained this ok. Other than the free fall of the stock, are there other risks I’m not seeing or considering? It seems to be a reasonable shot at capturing further upside with limited risk increase. I haven’t run the numbers yet on cheaper stocks but looking at VRX now…

Long story short…roll up the synthetic and use the credit to roll up the DITM call IF and only IF you’re confident in the stock holding it’s upside move.

smasty 8:12 am on Saturday, January 6, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy, SPYcraft ( 95 )

Unhedged #Fuzzy (this is really…

Unhedged #Fuzzy (this is really long!!)
My good friend @MamaCash calls these “Unhinged Fuzzies” and that always makes me smile. Over the past couple of weeks, the power of these revealed itself to me. So that’s why I called Mr @fuzzballl an onion last night 🙂 These fuzzies are revealing very important layers of opportunity to apply in different circumstances.

Yesterday morning I woke up remembering one of John Carter’s classes from a few years ago where he talked about “HPTM” High Probability Moments in Time. Couple that with Jeff’s upside VIX warning and Eureka! HPTM is here. My immediate thought was “put down all the toys.” No more 2-lot 3-lot 5-lots on various tickers. Time for BIG laser focus on SPY/SPX RIGHT NOW. However long this window lasts this is when fortunes are made.

Before I talk more about yesterday though, let me give a couple-paragraph primer on unhedged fuzzies, because I know some people are following this carefully. And when the check-out girl at the grocery store this weekend asks you “why not just buy calls instead of a fuzzy,” here’s your answer:

100 shares of stock = 100 Delta (P/L moves 1:1 with stock, it is stock)
1 At-the-Money call = 100 shares of stock = 50 Delta (only moves 1/2 with stock)
(1 ATM Call) + (- 1 ATM Put) = 100 Delta—this is a synthetic long stock position with 100 delta
A synthetic stock position is a very cheap way to approximate ownership of stock, but there’s not a huge advantage in it. In a 401K you still are required to hold the full buying power risk of the naked puts, in margin accounts there is some buying power reduction on the naked puts. But note that you have a large naked put position with synthetic stock.

SPY 1000 Shares: $273,000
SPY 10-lot synthetic naked put risk: $273,000 (indulge me in being less than precise)
Buying Power required: $273,000

Enter the 3rd leg of the Unhedged Fuzzy: The Protective Put
This is done in the same expiration cycle as the synthetic, in fact on the same order (hold your control key to add the leg). Currently I’m using $4.00 spread-risk on SPY. Here’s what my orders look like:
BTO 273 Call
STO 273 Put
BTO 269 Put
What just happened? All of this is on a 10-lot:
Risk: $4,000 (+ trade cost) vs $273,000
Income: UNLIMITED 700 delta ($700 for every $1.00 move in SPY (vs $500 for ATM calls))
Buying Power: FREE for portfolio margin, $4,000 for IRA vs $273,000

Let me give you a real example of how I recently used this trade that I’ve not yet reported. I really like the Gorilla Trades service. I’ve been a subscriber for probably 10 years. If I’d been a faithful follower I’d probably have $25 Million by now, but I’ve not been a faithful follower. Last weekend they came out with their top 3 picks for 2018, all 3 biotechs, all 3 are take out candidates for 2018: EXAS, EXEL, GWPH. All 3 look awesome to me! Do I want to buy 1000 shares of each and just sit on them for 6 months waiting for a buyout that may or may not come? Some of these have very high vol, meaning the market thinks they are either zoom or doom stocks. Do I want to risk 1000 shares on doom? Enter the unhedged fuzzy. Here were my Tue trades:

EXAS July 55/55/45 for 3.56 x 10 (this position is up $2,740)
EXEL May 31/31/27 for 2.55 x10 (this position is up $150.00)
GWPH May 135/135/125 for 9.65 x 5 (this position is down $1175.00 but only because of weekend b/a spread, it’s been up and down )

Point is….I have nice positions tucked away on 3 biotechs using very small risk and buying power….any one of these 3 could bring in a $40K windfall (or more), but if it doesn’t, what is my risk? I’m not sitting on thousands of shares of speculative stock. EXAS I’m most comfortable with, their product is amazing, so I took bigger risk there with a $10 wide protective put (they present at the big health conf this next week). EXEL I’m less familiar with, less risk. GWPH, less risk with less size.

Alright, back to yesterday morning. Woke up, big opportunity still in the markets. But its Friday, we’ve breached key expected move targets (not just for 1 week but 2 weeks). Still I removed hedges from 40 SPY fuzzies that I had, I added 30 Feb SPY Fuzzies for about 2.30. That gave me 70 SPY Fuzzies. 70x $272 x 100 = $1,904,000. Buying power used, next to nothing. Risk: $28,000 + trade cost. I still have a hard time believing the power of this myself. I rode this to the sign of resistance around 2 hours before the close, it was pretty quiet for most of the day. Grabbed about .50 of SPY move = $3500. Then I closed the extra 30 fuzzies and put fresh hedges on the other 40. When resistance broke and we had strength into the close I added another 10 unhedged fuzzies on for Monday morning. So I’m currently sitting on 40 hedged, 10 unhedged. My intent was to keep these trades open longer, but I tend to be a nervous nelly on Fridays. However, this is a tool I plan to use over and over; shorter duration expiries on limited trend trades, longer duration (hedged) on income trades.

This is really long, I know, thank you if you’ve made it this far. These trades, with their limited risk and effective use of buying power, are showing great versatility for trending/contraction/income/momo/long/short/hedge/speculation opportunities. Hope this was helpful for those of you still getting the #fuzzy concepts.
Sue

#spycraft

1strangealien 12:10 pm on Friday, January 5, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy

MYL

#Fuzzy

Roll MYL Jan05’18 43 calls to MYL Jan19’18 43.5 calls for 0.07 credit. I had a hard time getting this order in, Interactive Brokers is having some sort of an issue with their site. Earnings for MYL coming up supposedly on 02/05/18.

smasty 10:58 am on Thursday, January 4, 2018
Tags: Bitty ( 78 ), FallingKnife ( 965 ), Fuzzy

Jan 4 #Fuzzy All Fuzzies…

Jan 4 #Fuzzy
All Fuzzies are managed for the week and new ones added, including a new category I call “Lazy River Fuzzies.” I mentioned a couple weeks ago that I was scanning stocks with a weekly ATR of less than 2 in an effort to avoid a lot of the debit roll/chasing drama. My single test, CMCSA, has worked great, so added a second one today, MNST. The Lazy Rivers are cheaper to put on, have less hedge premium (lower volatility), but hopefully are more “set and forget.” I did a successful round of SPY naked put #Bitty this week….but you know…..I think fuzzies are better than bitties, so instead of setting new SPY Bitties, I have set SPY Fuzzies in all my accounts.
1. CSX Closed Down for net $1300…lots of debit rolls on this and earnings next week. It was a great #fallingknife suggestion
2. LMT-1 Debit Roll BTC Jan 5 322.5 for 2.15 STO Jan 18 325 c for 2.51
3. LMT-2 ditto
4. JPM Closed Down for net $3230.00. This was my very first Fuzzy! Earnings next week. Will reset after earnings release.
5. IWM BTC Jan 5 154 c for .96, STO Jan 12 155 c for .89
6. CMCSA (Lazy River) BTC Jan 5 41 c for .07, STO Jan 12 40.5c for .45
7. MCD BTC Jan 5 172.5 c for 1.50, STO Jan 19 175 c for 1.22
New Fuzzies:
1. EXAS (earlier this week) Apr 50/50/45 for 6.15 Jan 12 55 c -1.35 (ITM now)
2. SPY 1, 2, 3, 4 Jun 272/272/268 7.00 Jan 12 273 -.61 (going tighter on these puts)
3. MNST (Lazy River) Jun 60/60/55 5.13 Jan 12 64c -.50

I’ll do a stats recap tomorrow. A huge amount of fuzzies this week were debit rolls, so basis reduction is moving down ever so slowly, but unrealized profits with the purchase of upside allowance had added up nicely.

fuzzballl 10:15 am on Thursday, January 4, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy, IRA ( 431 ), ShortPuts ( 4,764 )

WDC

#ShortPuts #IRA – Going back into this one…

Sold WDC APR 20 2018 75.0 Put @ 2.80
Sold WDC APR 20 2018 72.5 Put @ 2.10
Sold WDC APR 20 2018 70.0 Put @ 1.55

#fuzzy

1strangealien 7:38 am on Thursday, January 4, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy

DWDP

#Fuzzy

I just closed an unhedged #Fuzzy in DWDP that I followed @smasty160 on on 12/27/17, made $1.69! Thanks Sue! Thought about just selling half and letting the rest ride, but since we have the jobs number tomorrow and also because the market has been having a love affair with the sky this week I decided to close it all down.

Bobbie 2:41 pm on Wednesday, January 3, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy

OK – got a Fuzzy…

OK – got a #Fuzzy in trouble in paper. Here it is: https://content.screencast.com/users/lulu99/folders/Jing/media/76d51b8f-9fcd-4c75-911c-590bbe90937b/2018-01-03_1734.png.

Do I just roll it or close it?

Thanks!

smasty 1:51 pm on Wednesday, January 3, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy

1/3/2018 #Fuzzy Trades Amazing two…

1/3/2018 #Fuzzy Trades
Amazing two days here. Wish I could hit a pause button. Or use the magic “flatten” button that Tom S. always wanted to develop for TOS. Wouldn’t that be great…..1 button and go flat everything with no slippage?
1. RCL What a gift here! I kept running fibs and symmetry on this knowing we were precariously close to serious support failure, but low volume kept me waiting it out. Got a nice roll today. BTC Jan 5 125 call for .14 STO Jan 12 123 call for 1.11cr.
2. MU Rode this up unhedged for a little ways and added a hedge back on, STO Jan 12 45 call for .76 cr
3. DWDP This was unhedged last week based on UOA I saw at the 74 line. I took the opp today to close it all out for a total $1500 gain.
4. AAPL BTC Jan 5 172.5 c for 1.92 sold Jan 18 175 c for 1.84. Pullback after the roll.
5. QQQ BTC Jan 5 158 c for 1.83 STO Jan 18 159 c for 1.99 cr.

Fuzzies left to manage this week:
CMCSA
IWM
JPM (EPS next week)
LMT-1
LMT-2
MCD

p.s. I still have an alternate RCL trade that went through multiple layers of defense. It started with a 123/120 BuPS, then I butterflied it, then added an IC at support. It is sitting under a significant profit umbrella graph, but hasn’t bumped much above the zero line yet.

I was joking around with some friends that I made enough today to buy a few Yugos. They didn’t know what a Yugo was. Sadly, I owned one.

1strangealien 9:56 am on Wednesday, January 3, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy

CSX

#Fuzzy

STC CSX May’18 +55C -55P +50P for 3.32, bought for 0.97 on 12/18/17. BTC CSX Jan05’18 55.5 calls for 1.50, sold for 0.39. Since this was a shorter term trade and since the stock has advanced well with the rest of the market and since earnings are on January 16 and since I see some green I decided to close this #Fuzzy. Booked $1.45 profit. Thank you @fuzzballl for pointing this one out!

1strangealien 8:16 am on Wednesday, January 3, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy

VRX

#Fuzzy

Roll VRX Jan05’18 22 calls to VRX Jan12’18 22.5 calls for 0.00. This lowers the delta on my short call from 0.83 to 0.62 so if the stock continues higher and I decide to close my #Fuzzy combo next week I should make a little mo.

smasty 2:27 pm on Tuesday, January 2, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy

Happy New Year!

Nice day here in #Fuzzy land
1. Big roll in BABA, BTC Jan5 175 for 7.97, STO Jan 19 182.5 for 4.47, added to core debit obviously, but bought an awful lot of upside range for $3.50
2. MU removed hedge for now, BTC Jan 12 43.5 c for .95 (previously sold for .53)
3. JPM roll to avoid dividend assignment (ex div is 4th) BTC Jan 5 107 c for .92, sold Jan5 108 for .40, still deciding on whether to hold through earnings next week or take all the profits off and reset after earnings–that’s why I rolled to same week. Call premium is very nice for next week. A year ago JPM moved down almost 5 standard deviations on earnings. In today’s volatility that would be about $7.00.

Fuzzies that need managed this week:

CMCSA (ITM)
IWM
JPM
LMT-1
LMT-2
MCD (ITM)
MU (unhedged)
DWDP (unhedged)
QQQ (ITM)
RCL (whoops, this should have been rolled last week, just to gain delta/theta)

Jeff 1:00 pm on Tuesday, January 2, 2018
Tags: ContangoETFs ( 446 ), Fuzzy

Adding to NUGT ladder

#ContangoETFs Sold $NUGT March 44 call for 1.50. I now have a NUGT ladder that matches my $DUST ladder, all in calls.

#fuzzy

1strangealien 8:36 am on Tuesday, January 2, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy, SyntheticStock ( 356 )

MGM MU

#SyntheticStock

BTC MGM Jan05’18 34.5 calls for 0.03, STO was 0.24. Waiting to sell for next week.

#Fuzzy

Thanks to Sue for this ticker! BTO MU Apr’18 +45calls -45puts +40puts for 0.86. STO MU Jan12’18 45 calls for 0.39.

1strangealien 8:46 am on Friday, December 29, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy

VRX

#Fuzzy STO VRX Jan05’18 22 calls for 0.22.

hcgdavis 2:17 pm on Thursday, December 28, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy, SPYcraft ( 95 )

Covering our remote office so…

Covering our remote office so had some time to trade at the end of the day.

GILD rolled 78 put 29 DTE out to 43DTE for 0.4 credit. Original sale was 5.85 after rolls so making a few $ on the trade now.

WDC rolled 90 put 22DTE to 29 DTE for 0.36 credit. Originally sold for 15.45 off rolls so this is still a nice profit.

My thought on the GILD and WDC recoveries is a few more rolls then close out at profit, or once the longs are covered keep it rolling as a #fuzzy. Depends on what the market does but they tend to work well so may keep it going. Both are bi-directional (call/puts/stock) so don’t really care if they move or not. Plus I picked up the dividend on GILD.

SVXY rolled various 105 puts, 1 DTE and 8 DTE out to 2/2 for 2.87-3.37 credits. Original sales were 1.71 and 1.

Happy new year, done until next week unless I add a week the #spycraft tomorrow or roll the profitable Jan 12 IC. Will post if I do it.

thomberg1201 8:25 am on Thursday, December 28, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy, SyntheticCoveredCall ( 21 )

#syntheticcoveredcall MYL Sold Jan. 18…

#syntheticcoveredcall #fuzzy MYL
Sold Jan. 18 43 call for .54 to go with MYL trades yesterday

1strangealien 8:13 am on Thursday, December 28, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy

CSX

#Fuzzy

BTC CSX Dec29’17 55 calls for 0.20, STO was 0.44. These are close to being in the money so NOT rolling the dice for tomorrow! STO Jan5’18 55.5 calls for 0.39.

smasty 8:13 am on Thursday, December 28, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy

Fuzzy Week

All my #Fuzzy trades for the week are now managed, so here’s an early weekly recap of everything (the “Total Hedge Collected” includes open orders, and is net of any closures/rolls:
1. JPM: Core debit: 2.51 Net Hedge Collected: $2,540 Revised Core Basis (0.03)
2. DWDP: Core debit: 1.44 Net Hedge Collected: ($60.00) Revised Core Basis 1.50 (unhedged)
3. CELG: Core debit: 2.38 Net Hedge Collected: $1,040 Revised Core Basis 1.34
4. RCL: Core Debit: 3.59 Net Hedge Collected: $1,390 Revised Core Basis 2.20
5. FAS-1: Core Debit: 2.08 Net Hedge Collected: $1,580 Revised Core Basis: .50
6. FAS-2 Core Debit: 2.12 Net Hedge Collected: $1,570 Revised Core Basis: .55
7. LMT-1: Core Debit: 6.20 Net Hedge Collected: $2,450 Revised Core Basis: 3.75
8. LMT-2: Core Debit: 6.20 Net Hedge Collected: $2,550 Revised Core Basis: 3.65
9. MU: Core Debit: 2.80 Net Hedge Collected: $1,220 Revised Core Basis: 1.58
9. CSX: Core Debit: 2.24 Net Hedge Collected: $550 Revised Core Basis: 1.69
10. QQQ: Core Debit: 2.73 Net Hedge Collected: $800 Revised Core Basis: 1.93
11. IWM: Core Debit: 2.25 Net Hedge Collected: $640 Revised Core Basis: 1.61
12. MCD: Core Debit: 3.12 Net Hedge Collected: $1,070 Revised Core Basis: 2.05
13. CMCSA: Core Debit: 1.38 Net Hedge Collected: $560 Revised Core Basis: .82
14. AAPL: Core Debit 5.27 Net Hedge Collected: $1,320 Revised Core Basis: 3.95
15. BABA: Core Debit 9.43 Net Hedge Collected: 965 Revised Core Basis: 7.50
16. CVX: Core Debit: 2.33 Net Hedge Collected: $940 Revised Core Basis: 1.39

Let me save you the time of adding up the hedge numbers: $21,125.00
This represents net hedges including closed (netted for p/l) and open orders. I have definitely NOT seen this number filter down to the bottom line due to pullbacks in underlyings (RCL, CELG, FAS, MU). Also I’m keeping meticulous track now with hedge rounds on sales vs covers to see the average amount of premium retained. It’s roughly looking like 50%–but too soon to say with so many new entries on the list. These trades are still in their infancy as far as roll cycles. JPM and CELG have had the most rolls, many of them are still in their first or second roll cycle. I’m still very happy with how this program is going. Thanks for following along. Like I just said to my friend @MamaCash this morning….nuance hides under bushes until flushed out. So it will take a few more months for me to learn all the nuance behind these. I know @fuzzballl has the nuance nailed, but I have to tear things apart to the core.

Jeff 8:12 am on Thursday, December 28, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy, ShortPuts ( 4,764 )

AVGO bullish

#ShortPuts Taking a pre-earnings long position in $AVGO. Doing this old school… not diving into the #Fuzzy trades yet.

Sold $AVGO Feb 16th 250 puts for 5.85.

Saw this on Fast Money last night and the chart set up looks good, along with NFLX.

1strangealien 7:03 am on Thursday, December 28, 2017
Tags: Fuzzies ( 40 ), Fuzzy

VRX

#Fuzzies

BTC VRX Dec29’17 22.5 calls for 0.04, STO was 0.27. Waiting to sell more for next week… could be a minute, could be tomorrow.

#fuzzy

smasty 2:16 pm on Wednesday, December 27, 2017
Tags: Fuzzies ( 40 ), Fuzzy, LongCallDiagonals ( 99 ), LongPutDiagonals ( 56 )

12/27 #Fuzzies With just a…

12/27 #Fuzzies
With just a couple trading days left in the year, my focus today was getting fuzzy rolls completed on anything in-the-money that might be exposed to early assignment due to end-of-year activity.
1. CELG BTC Dec 29 106 c for 1.60, STO Jan 12 107 c for 2.70. Yep….big fake out on this. What was firmly ITM this morning quickly became OTM right after my roll. But that’s why NOT legging the roll benefited me. Crappy price on closing out the 106, but fantastic price on the 107. Roll out and up.
2. DWDP There was some really unique bullish UOA on this yesterday, so I took the risky move of removing my hedge so this can run unfettered. BTC Dec 29 71.5 c for .45, currently unhedged.
3. CSX BTC Dec 29 54 c for 1.26, STO Jan 12 55 c for 1.21, roll out and up.
4. New Fuzzy CVX Jun 125/125/115 for 2.33, Jan 12 127 calls for -.94
5. FAS hedge was down to about .04 so I wanted to get a straight-across roll for .80 to Jan 12, the executed roll-spread numbers were all over the place, but they netted out to my .80 credit for the roll.
6. IWM: Dec 29 153 BTC for .96, Jan 5 154 STO for .96….got $1.00 for nuttin’. Roll out and up.

Fuzzies that still need managed this week:
JPM (in the money)
LMT

#fuzzy, #longcalldiagonals, #longputdiagonals

smasty 3:12 pm on Tuesday, December 26, 2017
Tags: Fuzzies ( 40 ), Fuzzy, FuzzyBear ( 22 ), UOA ( 12 )

12/26 Fuzzy land trades

NUE: I ended up closing this one for a net net loss of $340.00 How did I lose? It started off as a lovely trade. The round-one hedge expired with full profit. But the company then came out with lowered guidance and the underlying tanked over 3%, so I rolled the next week’s hedge down $2.00 to my synthetic line. We then saw a literal whipsaw correction which left me chasing each week with debit rolls to avoid assignment on my hedge, and ex-div is Thursday. Continuing debit rolls to get me out of assignment territory on the short calls would leave me with protective puts $15.00 ($15,000) away with no “bank” due to debit rolls. To me, chasing only makes sense when you know the underlying is going to stay bid, and to me a $340 loss on a 10-lot is pretty darn close to a scratch. I’d rather do a reset on this or another, vs. having $15K risk on a less-than-$100 stock.

AAPL: This takes the place of NUE. BTO Apr 170/170/160 for 5.27 debit, STO Jan 5 172.5 call for 1.32 cr

QQQ: BTC Dec 29 159c for .03, STO Jan 5 158 c for .47

CMCSA: I did a search on SP500 stocks with a weekly ATR of 2 or less, looking for stocks with decent premium for quick core debit coverage, but stocks that stay relatively stable with price movement. I’m just still playing around with finding the perfect candidates for #fuzzies. Take JPM for example…seems to stay in a very nice range for collecting that premium every single week. So anyway, CMCSA came up on the list, boring maybe, we’ll see how it works. BTO Apr 40/40/35 for 1.38 debit, STO Jan 5 41 call for .56.

BABA: Caught some bullish #UOA on this today, and has lovely weekly premium. Chart technicals not so great. But decided to do a 1/2 size fuzzy. Apr 170/170/160 for 9.43 debit (there’s a few bucks intrinsic in this), Jan 5 175 c for 1.93 cr.
I’ll do another full recap this Friday with every open position, net collection and debit recovery.

#fuzzy, #fuzzybear

1strangealien 11:20 am on Thursday, December 21, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy, SyntheticStock ( 356 )

EWZ, VRX

#SyntheticStock STO EWZ Dec29’17 40 calls @ 0.27

#Fuzzy STO VRX Dec29’17 22.5 calls @ 0.27

1strangealien 1:55 pm on Wednesday, December 20, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy, SyntheticStock ( 356 )

EWZ, MGM, VRX

#SyntheticStock

BTC EWZ Dec22’17 39.5 calls for 0.07, STO was 0.17.

BTC MGM Dec22’17 33.5 calls for 0.10, STO was 0.22.

#Fuzzy

BTC VRX Dec22’17 21.5 calls for 0.15, STO was 0.28.

Closed all these out early as I have to work next couple of days (and all were green but could have easily turned red before Friday) I am waiting to sell for next week.

smasty 12:10 pm on Wednesday, December 20, 2017
Tags: BuCS ( 52 ), BUPS ( 400 ), Defense ( 3 ), Fuzzy, ShortPut ( 33 ), UOA ( 12 )

12/20

I have 28 orders today, so I’ll sort through highlights. Also there were orders yesterday that I didn’t recap so if you were tracking a particular position and it disappeared don’t hesitate to ask.
1. My best trade of the day was scalping TSLA based on #UOA. I caught a big Jan 345 opening order for 3820 contracts so I quick bought a #BUCS and some shares and netted $1440 before going flat.
2. RCL needed a little #defense on a #BUPS, break even not yet breached, which is the best time for defense. I have on a Jan 123/120 credit spread x 10, so I butterflied it by selling more 123 and buying 126, x 4. By doing it early I only need 4 contracts to do the following: 1. cut long deltas in half (from 142 to 72), 2. move BE from 122.27 to 121.68, 3. raise max loss from $2,227 to $1,678, 4. Increase max profit
3. Bought NTNX shares at 35.25 and 34.75, I have 800 shares now
4. FAS Fuzzy roll to next week
5. MSFT #ShortPut scalps for this week the 85’s and 85.5’s, flat now for $370
6. MU new #Fuzzy Apr 46/46/41 with Dec 29 47 short calls
7. Caught some LOW UOA…when a fund buys expensive calls at an underlying high it’s a powerful trade, so followed along buying some Jan 92 calls at 1.52.
8. CELG rolled Fuzzy calls to next week

Fuzzies that still need managed this week: DWDP, JPM,

smasty 3:07 pm on Tuesday, December 19, 2017
Tags: Fuzzies ( 40 ), Fuzzy, FuzzyBear ( 22 ), SPYcraft ( 95 ), VXXGame ( 769 )

Fuzzy Land and “Fade Muse”

Right now I have on 12 #Fuzzies and the total amount of hedge/income premium that is sold and pending collection is $11,480 (spread mostly between this week and next week). Here’s why I love Bull Fuzzies:
–Less risk than a covered call (due to protection)
–Way less buying power than a covered call
–Same benefits of a covered call (except dividends)
–Positive Vega/Positive Theta (a covered call doesn’t have positive Vega)
–Better design than many diagonals I see
–When opened using 90-120 DTE but closed before 45DTE I should be able to maintain a really good chunk of the protective put value that would be exposed to theta decay

I know you know all this. Here’s where it gets interesting, and where I expect to now become your “Fade Muse”

i closed the #fuzzybear today. for a decent loss. Listen I hated this trade. I timed it all wrong. I put it on at the bottom of a swing vs. the top. I sized it too big for SPX. I made it a Feb trade so big theta decay was going to start soon on the long put. I’ve realized I like fuzzy setups (long or short) that cover the trade debit in 4 weeks or less, and SPX doesn’t do that. I’ve been battling it for this whole up move. Hedges can’t keep up with it. It’s beyond effective hedge range now. I ran every scenario and I just didn’t see a way out short of a big market crash, all the while theta was burning away. I was running scenarios in my head at night for saving the trade. I’ve been watching this week for a VIX upside warning to hit today (it didn’t). I can see some liquidation breaks hitting the market, but drivers are too strong for a big hit I think. Of course anything can happen, but I don’t want big (BIG) bets on market crashes in my portfolio. Today’s dip gave me the opp I needed to wipe it clean and wait for a better setup in the future.

Paid my 4Q taxes today, so just took the hit on it today. When all the laundry was washed and dried and put away it was exactly a $14K hit (net of premium collected). Luckily all the other fuzzies have been financing that so my account balance has been running in place.

#fuzzy, #spycraft, #vxxgame

1strangealien 7:07 am on Tuesday, December 19, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy

CSX

#Fuzzy

STO CSX Dec29’17 55 calls @ 0.44

smasty 1:00 pm on Monday, December 18, 2017
Tags: Bitty ( 78 ), Fuzzy, FuzzyBear ( 22 )

12/18 Day Done

11. Added an RCL #Fuzzy Mar 125/125/115 for 3.59 and Dec 29 128 short calls for 1.00
12. Added CSX #Fuzzy May 52.5/52.5/46 for 2.24 and Dec 29 54 short calls for .60
13. Scratched the SPX #bitty in the #FuzzyBear account because this market is nuts and wanted to re-establish as much negative delta as I can
14. LMT #Fuzzy Closed it out! These are not meant to be day-traded, but I put it on at the low and quickly got $773 net profit (20%), so closed it to take off risk. A lot of slippage when these are day-traded.
15. 2 short /NQ for overnight

fuzzballl 10:26 am on Monday, December 18, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy

CSX

Not going to be around much this week but CSX setting up for possible #Fuzzy …

smasty 9:34 am on Monday, December 18, 2017
Tags: Bitty ( 78 ), BUPS ( 400 ), Fuzzy, FuzzyBear ( 22 ), ShortPuts ( 4,764 )

12/18 trades

1. DHI (neutral/short skewed IC) needed a little defense, so rolled the short calls from 50 to 52. New upside break even is 53.10.
2. SPX stopped out of the qty 1 BECS 2755/2730, closed for 3.85
3. SPX #FuzzyBear BTC 2625 put hedge for .55 (sold at 3.00) for $2450 profit. STO Dec 27 2625 for .75. New net number: Total profit $5898, Debit basis: 33.50. Also added a Dec 26 #Bitty (in 2 accounts) 2680/2675 for .85 (not included in net numbers).
4. LMT new #Fuzzy on down bar today: Mar 320/320/310 for 6.13, sold Dec 22 322.5c for 1.14, already up nicely.
5. TXN #BUPS hit over 50% target for $470 profit
6. FLIR #ShortPuts hit over 50% target for $700 profit
7. RCL STO #BUPS Jan 123/120 for .73 cr
8. DWDP This is a fun one, I opened a #Fuzzy on this last week but delayed buying protection for a 1% up move, I had an order queued for the move and it hit today, so my protection is cheap cheap at .40 (mar 62.5p)
9. TWTR Rather than roll a DITM Fuzzy I closed the whole thing for $440 profit
10. FAS New #Fuzzy in 2 accounts, I really like the setup. Apr 70/70/60 for 2.08, Dec 22 71c for -.48

1strangealien 10:23 am on Friday, December 15, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy, SyntheticStock ( 356 )

MYL TWTR

#SyntheticStock Roll MYL Dec15’17 39 calls to Dec29’17 39.5 calls for 0.06 credit

#Fuzzy BTC TWTR Dec15’17 22.5 calls @ 0.10, sold for 0.16 earlier in the week made the family some zaxby’s money. STO TWTR Dec22’17 23 calls for 0.27.

1strangealien 8:36 am on Friday, December 15, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy

VRX

#Fuzzy

Got back into VRX, maybe it settled down a little. Bought VRX Apr’18 +20calls -20puts +17puts for 1.29. Sold VRX Dec22’17 21.5 calls for 0.28.

smasty 7:14 am on Friday, December 15, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy, FuzzyBear ( 22 )

Fuzzy Rolls

LMT #Fuzzy from just 8 days ago was up over $2,000 net today. Rather than roll, I decided to close it all and look for a new opp to reset.
CELG I rolled yesterday locking in $750 for the week and selling another 1.00 for next week, my “Stage One” net debit is now only $0.63.
JPM I rolled on Wed before FOMC locking in $550 for the week and selling .95 for next week. My “Stage One” net debit is now only $1.04
NUE got hit with some bad news this week on guidance, took the stock down yesterday but just beyond the synthetic level. Premium is slow to come out of the short calls today, in latter half of the day I will place new position for next week and just let this week expire. That will bring in $560 for the week.
IWM: Opened yesterday, no roll today
TWTR: Up nicely, but no roll for this week
SPX: #FuzzyBear Rolled earlier this week. I have realized income of $7100 on this in just 8 days. Stage One has gone from $40 to $30. Much more to go! Like @fuzzballl said earlier this week…just keep chipping away at it.

I’m looking at #Fuzzy debit recovery in two stages, Stage One is the trade debit recovery, then Stage Two is the spread risk recovery.

smasty 8:49 am on Wednesday, December 13, 2017
Tags: Fuzzies ( 40 ), Fuzzy, FuzzyBear ( 22 ), JadeLizard ( 130 )

DWDP

@vxxkelly did a recent trade on this and it reminded me it’s been on my watch list. There’s a lot of block trades on it today, and some calls being bought. So I did an unprotected #Fuzzy . I did a Mar 70/70 synthetic and sold Dec 22 71.5. I will add protection after an up move, for a better price. In a squeeze right now.
Didn’t capture my trades from yesterday, but a couple highlights:
1. Rolled the JPM Fuzzy hedge into strength to collect more on the next week
2. MAR #JadeLizard closed for 50% target
3. My SPX #FuzzyBear is troublesome. I didn’t set it with correct timing, so now I’m doing battle. I took off one short call on the synthetic turning it into a back ratio like @hcgdavis mentioned yesterday. I’m also using the AS-BB indicator for legging in and out of the hedge puts to get a few extra $$ on it.
#Fuzzies need rolls as Friday approaches: LMT, CELG, NUE. I’ve got substantial net profit on LMT so may close it all rather than roll.

1strangealien 8:38 am on Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy, SyntheticStock ( 356 )

VRX

#SyntheticStock

Closed down my VRX trade, that booger took off like DIS did! BTC VRX Dec29’17 16.5 calls for 5.15 sold these last week for 1.31. Sold my VRX Jan17’20 synthetic stock (+15call -15put +12put) for 8.90, I bought it on 11/07 for 2.72. Net gain of 1.53 on 10 contracts. Thanks Fuzzy!

Replaced with a #Fuzzy that Sue came up with, looks interesting. BTO TWTR Mar’18 +22call -22put +18put for 0.71, STO TWTR Dec15’17 22.5 calls for 0.17. Thanks Sue!

smasty 3:12 pm on Monday, December 11, 2017
Tags: Bitties ( 8 ), Bitty ( 78 ), BuCS ( 52 ), butterfly ( 15 ), EarningsRunUp ( 30 ), Fuzzies ( 40 ), Fuzzy, JadeLizard ( 130 ), PutRatioSpread ( 14 ), SyntheticStock ( 356 ), UOA ( 12 )

12/11 Trades

Looks like it was a quiet day for a lot of people here.
1. May I please call these “Fuzzy” trades? I love them and I’m doing a lot of them (#SyntheticStock Diagonals w/ protection and hedge income—From now on known as #Fuzzies. To me, the Fuzzies have two stages, stage one is recovering the net debit of the trade; Stage 2 is recovery of the spread risk. I spent time this weekend looking at and scoring candidates. The “score” is basically the number of weeks of hedge income that it takes to accomplish Stage 1. The fewer the number of weeks, the lower the score. I’m looking for Fuzzies with a score of less than 5, less than 4 even better. I have a picture in my head of having a portfolio of 10 Fuzzies, each with $10 spread risk, bringing in 10-15K a week in income. So I’m testing these aggressively.

I have a TOS scan for finding high-return covered calls and puts, and it turns out it’s a good scan for finding Fuzzy candidates with low scores. Here’s the scan http://tos.mx/vKzR27

So back to Trade #1: CELG. I happened to catch a big bullish fund order for a Jan risk reversal, so a CELG #Fuzzy was my first trade of the day: Mar 110c/-110p/+100p, Dec 15 110 c. Net debit: 1.38 with a “Score” of approx 2.38 (2.38 weeks to cover the core debit)
2. Oh…here’s a nod to @hcgdavis for the Alpha Shark indicator. Got it. Love it. So scalped a bunch of /NQ today while taking it for a test run. Ended up +$305 on small-lot scalps. Enough to pay for the indicator 🙂
3. NTES. Now this was a franken-trade. It started as one 10-lot #butterfly. As it dropped added another 10-lot butterfly. Last week added a 3rd 10-lot butterfly. Was finally able to close it all out today for a $157 loss. Believe me, I’m happy with that!
4. #Bitties Closed! SPX x 20 lot, NDX x 10 lot. Got 50% target on all of them. The SPX bitties were 7DTE, so was happy to close them asap given the gamma risk. Net profit $1150.
5. Reset 17DTE SPX #Bitties. The Dec 27 2630/2625 for .85 cr x 20
6. NTNX I’ve been holding 703 shares, took 603 off for about $950 profit. Some day they’ll be acquired so I’ll always keep a hundred on. Great stock for swing trading, so will load back up on any dip. My max size position is 3000 shares, but I never seem to get the opp to add that many on.
7. QQQ #JadeLizard closed for 50% profit, this week’s expiration
8. SPY 266/267 #BuCS closed for 90% profit. This was bought based on #UOA (unusual option activity). SPY trades massive volume in fund flow, obviously—but it’s almost all put hedges. Every once in awhile a big bullish trade hits the tape, and those are ones for my attention.
9. NUE Closed a BuCS for 50% profit, this is another one that was bought on #UOA
10. NUE Opened a #Fuzzy Apr 60/60/50 for 1.87 core debit, Dec 15 62 call short for .56, Score is 3.3. There was a lot of bullish option flow on this today….all the way up to the 70 call line.
11 NUE spec trade based on #UOA bought 100 Jan 70 calls for .16, just looking for .21 as my target
12 MU #EarningsRunUp added two more calls to the trade from last week. Looking for 30% profit on these and must close before earnings announcement.
13 AMC #UOA There was unusual activity on AMC right before the other cinema merger happened last week. Turns out AMC confirms they’ve been approached too, regarding investment options. I’m glad I sold a few puts when I saw the fund flow. Netted 50%, $370.00 on a 10-lot
14. MSFT I like to layer on a lot of different MSFT trades. I love what they’re doing with Azure. However I saw a lot of January put buying today on MSFT, so I cut a trade short (#BuCS) for 28% profit vs. the 50% I was looking for. I still have on a MSFT #Butterfly that I’m watching closely. 80/85/90 for Feb.
15. ALGN This is the last of my trades from the tech crash. I defended it resulting in half what the max loss would have been. All closed now for $1150 loss. Classic case of thinking it would come back. Could have been handled better, but could have been handled much worse. I wouldn’t mind resetting with a #bitty or #PutRatioSpread the problem is that it’s just really thin. The Market Makers are not the worst I’ve dealt with (ISRG, KORS, ULTA are worse) but it’s still a struggle.
16. TWTR Opened a #Fuzzy in a 401K. I again saw some large bullish fund flow on TWTR and it had a good score. Mar 22/22/18 core for .78, sold Dec 22.5 call for .46, score is roughly 2. Not sure how this one will work out, but I’m still developing the perfect candidate profile for the Fuzzies.