Jan 24 More #Fuzzy
1. New QQQ Fuzzy Bear Feb -168.5calls/+168.5puts/+169.5 calls for 2.47, hedged w/ Feb2 166 puts @.82
2. JNJ, been waiting to see buyers come in on this, there was some nibbling today Apr 140/140/135 @3.85 (has $2.00 intrinsic). Hedged w/ Feb2 145 calls @ .43
3. EA added a 2nd Earnings Run Up fuzzy on the drop today, Feb 2 114/114/112 @3.17, I have 5 of the 117-line fuzzies and 2 of the 114-line. These are unhedged, to be closed before report, profit target is always 40% for me using a GTC order.
4. Hedged AAPL earnings fuzzy on the poor performance this week. Jan 26 175 for 1.26.
Almost all of the Earnings Run Up fuzzies are based on historical 100% win rates (backtested), but AAPL doesn’t have that kind of historical win rate running up to earnings. I went a bit rogue on this one. Keeping the full $1260 on this hedge will go a long ways to fixing this trade. But this is a bit dicey, one news release and the hedge is blown.