MamaCash 1:03 pm on Tuesday, October 23, 2018
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

DubCal for HOG

Bot ydy @ .35. Closed today for .50 x4

#earnings

Jeff 1:04 pm on Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Did you wait until end of day to close?
- MamaCash 1:16 pm on Tuesday, October 23, 2018
  
  Yes, I closed a couple minutes before the bell. As you know, if they’re not profitable after the opening bell, I let them ride for a while. I’m carrying BIIB and CAT into tomorrow and maybe longer. BIIB is profitable but I think there’s more there. CAT is a loser but small risk.
  - Jeff 1:25 pm on Tuesday, October 23, 2018
    
    Do you go for a percentage in the morning or do you model each trade to determine your target?
    - MamaCash 1:27 pm on Tuesday, October 23, 2018
      
      I model each trade on the risk graph after the announcement. Not going for a percentage on these. Some are 300% and some are 10%.:-)
      - Jeff 3:41 pm on Tuesday, October 23, 2018
        
        Man, I cannot figure out the modeling on TOS. You model all four options together to look at profit range, correct? I can’t figure out how to view the T+1 line for tomorrow properly.
        
        MamaCash 4:17 pm on Tuesday, October 23, 2018
        
        You can’t view an accurate T+1 before the vol collapse. You look at the two straddles separately to calculate potential profit. Then after ER, you can model them together and step thru the dates to see T+1 line by date.
        
        Jeff 5:21 pm on Tuesday, October 23, 2018
        
        What setting for “Line” do you use at the top of the graph? I’m flummoxed by their categories, totally different from OptionVue that I learned on.
      - Jeff 3:45 pm on Tuesday, October 23, 2018
        
        Well, suddenly it works. But what do you enter for vol drop when looking at the whole trade? Split the difference?
        
        MamaCash 3:51 pm on Tuesday, October 23, 2018
        
        I’m not sure I understand your question but I don’t look at the whole trade for vol drop. I look at the expirations separately before earnings. After earnings, unusual vol drop is no longer relevant. It has already happened.
        
        Jeff 5:18 pm on Tuesday, October 23, 2018
        
        Okay, you’re just using the original calculations before you put on the trade for guidance on taking it off, right? You model max profit on T+1 and shoot for that?
        
        MamaCash 6:45 pm on Tuesday, October 23, 2018
        
        Yes mostly.:-) It also has to do with the price on the stock after ER. I look at risk graph to determine if I might do better by waiting or if it makes more sense to TTMAR.