#shortputs
$TNDM BTC 5/31 69 puts at .75. Had sold for 4..08 on 5/20
#longputs
$TSLA BTO 1/17/2019 185 puts at 33
#coveredcalls
$NFLX BTC 5/31 367.50 calls and STO 6/7 357.50 calls at 4.01 added premium.
$PYX STO 6/21 22.5 calls at .05
#shortputs
$TNDM BTC 5/31 69 puts at .75. Had sold for 4..08 on 5/20
#longputs
$TSLA BTO 1/17/2019 185 puts at 33
#coveredcalls
$NFLX BTC 5/31 367.50 calls and STO 6/7 357.50 calls at 4.01 added premium.
$PYX STO 6/21 22.5 calls at .05
#ShortPuts – One to watch tomorrow. Five percent tariffs announced tonight on Mexico. This thing rarely trades below 40 and it could easily open down there tomorrow…
#optionsexpiration and actually these are for next week, I rolled everything today.
Sorry I have not had time to post for anyone that was following trades. I will do a better job of at least a weekly update. That is how I trade. 95% of my trades are on Thurs. so a weekly update should keep things up to date.
Lots of trading last few weeks but equity curve flat. Need the trade tariff BS to end. Not good for business 😦
Most of my trades have been converted to #fuzzy or #lizardpies for recovery.
#hedge
/ES 62 DTE 2610/2605 back ratio has made a few $. It’s real purpose is to guard against a 2/6/18 or 8/24/15 event. Hope I don’t need it but would get a lot of cash then. However like an insurance policy I expect to lose on this.
#pietrades
LABU 45 cc at 44.25 cb and 40 cc at 37.13 and another batch of 40 cc at 38.42
TNA 60 cc at 59.69
TQQQ 63 cc at 62.15
AMAT 22 DTE 42 CC at 41.04. Assigned off a 43 put but had some credits as a cushion
#fuzzy
EOG 92.5/90 rolled down to 87.5/87.5 for a little debit. Cost basis 15.44 but because I had made some on the longs it put some cash back in the account.
GILD 65/65 rolled next week for 0.29 credit. Cost basis 5.91. Should not be too much longer for a free trade.
LNG 67.5/67.5 rolled for 0.34 credit. Cost basis 9.99 down from 15.57 at onset only 4 weeks ago.
XBI 80/80/85 rolled for 0.70 and cb 5.57
XBI 80/85 cb 12.50. This is a new batch we are doing live as an experiment. Avg. about 4% cost reduction per week. With monthlies it is larger about 6-8% but the theta decay is slower. 6% per month is 96% per year.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 for cb of 3.78. Freebie soon I hope 🙂 but this is also an experiment that will be taken all the way to expiration in 2021.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 at 6.45. Same as above but this is tracking the compounded addition of contracts as the rolls spit off cash.
#lizardpies
IBB 103.5 rolled down to 102/102/102.5 for total credit of 0.84. This has been recovered all the way from 107/109 strikes. Shows the flexibility of the #jadelizard as a tactic for adjustments.
IWM rolled down from 150 to 149/149/149.5. Reduced debit from 2.11 to 1.63 as I have recovered this from 155/157 strikes. I gave back a little credit to reduce margin.
SQ 63.5/63.5/64 rolled for total credit of 2.19. Looks like it found a bottom.
XBI 81.5 rolled down to 81/81/81.5 for total credit of 2.35.
LNG 64/64/64.5 rolled down from 66 for 1.68 total credit.
Once I can close a few of these, hopefully next week, will start some 21 DTE #lizardpies and create ladders. Some of them will be skewed to downside to just have steady income with every expiration and let them expire each week. Add new ones every Monday or Thurs.
Stay nimble, I suspect there is more volatility ahead but take advantage of the increased premiums 🙂
Here is an example of a 22 DTE #lizardpies I am looking at.
7 points of downside protection. No risk to upside. Income over 3 weeks, can probably close early for 50% or more profit.
#SPX1dte Somehow I plum forgot to put this on, so I did it after the bell.
Sold $SPX May 31st 2720/2740-2825/2845 condors for 1.10. (IV 14.3%, SPX 2788).
Bought to close $SPX 6/10 2720/2695 BuPS + 2900/2935 BeCS @ 3.99. Sold for 7.00 on 5/23.
#Earnings This is speculative because $UBER has not previously posted earnings, but my guess is this stock will move more than $3.00 (7.5%) on earnings. $LYFT moved over 10% on its first report.
So I’m buying a #LongStraddle. I’m going to try to leg in, which is often a mistake for me, but trying any way.
Just now bought $UBER May 31st 40 call for 1.45.
Order in to buy 40 put for 1.50, banking that stock will rise a bit from here. If not, I’ll buy the 39.5 put instead.
Modified #JadeLizard (unbalanced skewed iron condor?) with some downside protection and no upside risk. Breakeven down near the 200ma and near the average move of the stock on earnings.
Sold 1 ULTA MAY 31 2019 280/305/340/345 @ 5.12
#CoveredCalls – Plugging away…
Bought to Close REGN MAY 31 2019 325.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.00)
Sold REGN JUN 14 2019 320.0 Call @ 4.10
#ShortPuts – Recently had all of my stock called away (again). Looks to be pulling back into congestion so reloading at the 50ma. Ex dividend on July 9th and earnings on July 24th so I’d like to be back in it again by then so…
Sold T JUL 05 2019 31.5 Puts @ .53
Still 16.35 percent annualized if I don’t get the stock…
SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 5th 2845/2870 call spreads for 2.80. Offsetting put spreads sold yesterday.
BTC May 31st 2725/2700 put spreads for .35. Sold for 2.10 on May 21.
#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 14, 2019 AC +8.28%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.12% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC +7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13%
May 25, 2017 AC +3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC +4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -6.11%
May 26, 2016 AC +9.10% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.16%
Bias 0.37%, tiny positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 325.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 300.92 to 349.08
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 304.98 to 345.02
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 282.36 to 367.64
Based on UP Max only (+9.1%): 354.58
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 7, 2019 AC +5.08% Biggest UP
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC +3.40%
May 25, 2016 AC +3.57%
Avg (+ or -) 3.79%
Bias -0.52%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 232.65 to 252.35
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 233.31 to 251.69
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.6%): 221.69 to 263.31
Based on UP Max only (+5.1%): 254.82
Open to requests for other symbols.